Tag Archives: twins

The Morning Edition (July 15, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Archer dominates the Astros with a CGSO, 0 BB, 8 K performance
  • Iwakuma leads the M’s past the Angels
  • Workman flirts with a no-no for the Red Sox but Donaldson walks off for the A’s
  • Stop me if you’re heard this, Davis homers, O’s win
  • The Phillies beat the White Sox in extras…again
  • 3 runs in the 10th get the Nats past the Fish
  • The Twins shell Sabathia

What I’m Watching Today:

  • HR Derby (8pm Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Will Chris Davis carry his homerun streak into the derby?

I’m not a huge fan of the HR Derby. It’s a fine event, but I think ESPN makes it pretty boring to watch with their interviews with players from the Yankees and Red Sox and commentary about the first half from analysts I don’t really want to listen to. A lot of people have offered ways to freshen the competition, but I think freshening the coverage could be just as good. Instead of Chris Berman screaming “back, back, back…” I’d like to see more coverage focusing on player reactions. We could mic up 15 or 20 players and just bounce around as they talk to each other about the season and the big swings. I think that would be cool. Or we could just get Vin Scully. Either way, I’m pulling for Prince, but will take Davis to win.

The Morning Edition (July 14, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Greinke twirls a CGSO to beat the Rockies despite Chatwood’s CG, 1 ER gem.
  • Davis homers again, but Orioles fall to the Jays
  • Lincecum no hits the Padres, featuring 13 Ks. (Late out west, hence the lack of intense attention)
  • The White Sox tops the Phillies with 2 in the 11th
  • Hughes K’s 10, but gives up 4 as the Yanks fall to the Twins
  • Haren and Fernandez pitch well, Marlins win in 10

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Shields takes on the Indians (1p Eastern)
  • Hamels tries to stay on a role (1p Eastern)
  • Wainwright and Wood take the final stage before the break (8p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Who will replace the Sunday starters and injured players on the All-Star rosters?

Enjoy the last day before the break. It’s going to be a slow few days!

The Morning Edition (July 11, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Wheeler great, Cain awful in a big Mets win
  • Another great start for Turner in Miami
  • The Angels unload on the Cubs, get a good start from Wilson
  • Lee gives up four solo homeruns in a loss to the Nationals
  • Toronto tops Cleveland after a wild 9th
  • Nova and the Yanks handle the Royals easily
  • Twins and Rays play deep into the night, Zobrist walks off

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Sale and Sanchez in Detroit (1p Eastern)
  • Zimmermann goes against the Phils (7p Eastern)
  • Bumgarner (underrated) and Marquis (overrated) face off in Petco (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • How should we pick the ASG starter?

There’s been some debate, as there always is regarding ASG stuff, as to who should start for each side. Harvey is the frontrunner in the NL because he is having one of the best seasons and the game is at his home park. It’s not a lock that he should start on merit, but he’s in the conversation and the hometown thing probably pushes him over. I think it’s safe to say Harvey, Wainwright, and Kershaw are the contenders, but depending on what stats you like, you can make a case that any of them are the best starter so far. But should it be about the best starter so far this season? Should it be about the best starter for the last calendar year? The biggest star? The guy who we judge to be the best, because the game does count? It’s not a clear formula. For what it’s worth, Wainwright is schedule to pitch Sunday so he’s probably out. Kershaw and Harvey are both “stop what you’re doing and watch guys” who are having elite years and are top 10 guys since the last ASG. If you’re asking for six outs, they can both get them with the best of them. Is there really a way to separate who should get the start if we don’t have a fixed definition. If Kershaw was far and away having a better season, it might be different, but they’re pretty even, so it just makes sense to go with Harvey…I think. Kershaw’s about to get $200 million. Harvey could have that in his future, but he has more work to do. Let’s go with Harvey.

The Morning Edition (July 7, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • MLB All-Star Game participants announced, see below for commentary
  • Sale goes 7, gives up 2 ER, 1 BB, and Ks 9…loses again….
  • Cardinals walk off on the Fish
  • Santana and Parker both solid, but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Royals
  • Dickey goes deep into the game, but surrenders 6 runs as the Twins beat the Jays

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Kuroda goes against the O’s (1p Eastern)
  • Strasburg toes the slab in DC (1p Eastern)
  • Danks and Price hook up in Tampa (130p Eastern)
  • Fernandez takes on the Cardinals (2p Eastern)
  • Burnett comes off the DL to face the Cubs (2p Eastern)
  • Kershaw faces the Giants (4p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • How do the All-Star rosters look?

So let me break the ASG rosters down in a very simple way. I’m only going to point out players who got left off criminally and players who probably shouldn’t be on the team. As usual, most of the roster is right, and it’s messed up at the margins. Here are my AL and NL picks and here are the full rosters.

Players Who Should Be on the Rosters:

  • Evan Longoria is 6th in MLB in position player WAR, the only AL reserve who could even reasonably be considered more deserving than Longoria is Machado. It’s a crime that Longo isn’t in the game.
  • Josh Donaldson is 9th in WAR and is on the outside looking in because you can’t have a million 3B on your team. It’s understandable that one of these guys got left off, it’s unacceptable that both didn’t make it. Either could go as a DH, or replace one of the catching backups or one of the 3 backup 2B.
  • Honorable mention to Kyle Seager, because he belongs, but 3B is too deep to make much of a case.
  • Ellsbury and Gardner are also better choices than Hunter and Cruz, but it’s less egregious.
  • Marte and Choo probably belong over Dom Brown
  • Derek Holland is 4th in MLB in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster. Not much justification for that.
  • Homer Bailey is 5th in the NL in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster, hard to buy Locke, Wood, and Bumgarner over him

Players Who Shouldn’t Be on the Roster

  • I know he was voted by the fans, so it’s a popularity thing, but Adam Jones has very little business being in the game over some of the guys who missed.
  • Bartolo Colon probably doesn’t need to be on the roster, but he has 11 wins, and those are shiny. His A’s teammate Josh Donaldson should get to go in his place even if they play different positions
  • Prince Fielder really shouldn’t be an All-Star, but he’s in because he’s well known, has RBI, and it is a pretty down year for 1B in the AL. Longoria or Donaldson really should go in his place
  • I love Ben Zobrist, but he has to only be in the game over Longoria because he’s versatile and can fill in for injured guys. There is nothing else that justifies him being on the team over Longo
  • Cruz and Hunter together make one good All-Star, but each on their own doesn’t do much for me. Not a huge error, but probably not deserving given who was left off
  • Brandon Phillips should not be an All-Star this year. Fan vote, so can’t say too much.
  • Dominic Brown is probably a no for me, but it’s not terrible.

I’m sure some of you disagree with these comments, but that’s the way this works. Undeserving players get picked because of name value or voters looking at the wrong numbers, but I stand by the ones about which I wrote most strongly. Longoria and Donaldson must be All-Stars. I don’t care who comes off as long as it isn’t Cabrera, Gomez, Trout, Davis, or Wright. Literally, 2 of the top 10 players in baseball aren’t going to the game. Come on guys.

The Morning Edition (July 6, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Wells delivers a walk off single to back Nova’s CG, 11 K performance
  • Milone goes 8.1 to beat the Royals
  • Hellickson goes 7, Ks 9 as the Rays defeat the White Sox
  • 7 shutout innings from Buerhle push the Jays past the Twins
  • Liriano goes the distance as the Bucs top the Cubs

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Zimmermann welcomes the Friars to Nationals’ Park (4p Eastern)
  • Bonderman and Latos (4p Eastern)
  • Sale and Moore in Tampa (7p Eastern)
  • Darvish versus the Astros, strikeout warning (7p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Who will get picked to the ASG today?

Yesterday we unveiled our 2013 AL All-Stars and the NL team is coming today at 4pm. It’s always a controversial list, but I feel good about it. You can also catch up on our series chronicling the problems with the wins statistic, starting with great low wins seasons, showing that wins don’t even out over the course of a career, and later today we’re breaking down The Nine Worst 20 Win season in MLB history. Needless to say, it’s a controversial type week at New English D, but we’re all for it. Let’s talk baseball!

Picking the American League All-Stars

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With the All-Star rosters looming ahead this weekend, New English D weighs into the fray with these picks. We’ll cover the NL tomorrow. A few notes up front. First, I’ve conformed the roster size to the official requirements and have selected starters I feel are most deserving based on their 2013 seasons and have given no deference to the voting up through this point. My view is that the All-Star Game should showcase the game’s standout performers from the first half of 2013, not the best players over the last year or the best players by talent even if they haven’t performed. I think the game should highlight the players who play well, not the players MLB thinks are “marketable.” Every team is represented and I’ve given a list of players who are the first replacements for injuries and such. Clay Buchholz would have been selected, as noted, but is currently injured. As you know, this site appreciates advanced statistics, so should you choose to comment on these selections, please do so without using “RBI” or “Wins.”

Enjoy and feel free to criticize the 7 Tigers I put on the list. I can’t make a case that they aren’t deserving, even if you think I’m a homer.

PLAYER TEAM POSITION
Joe Mauer Twins C
Chris Davis Orioles 1B
Jason Kipnis Indians 2B
Jhonny Peralta Tigers SS
Miguel Cabrera Tigers 3B
Mike Trout Angels OF
Jose Bautista Jays OF
Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox OF
David Ortiz Red Sox DH
Max Scherzer Tigers SP
Carlos Santana Indians C
Edwin Encarnacion Jays 1B
Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 2B
Robinson Cano Yankees 2B
Jed Lowrie Athletics SS
Evan Longoria Rays 3B
Manny Machado Orioles 3B
Josh Donaldson Athletics 3B
Nate McClouth Orioles OF
Alex Gordon Royals OF
Brett Gardner Yankees OF
Adam Lind Jays DH
Derek Holland Rangers SP
Felix Hernandez Mariners SP
Chris Sale White Sox SP
Justin Verlander Tigers SP
Yu Darvish Rangers SP
Anibal Sanchez Tigers SP
Doug Fister Tigers SP
Bud Norris Astros SP
Brett Cecil Jays RP
Mariano Rivera Yankees RP
Drew Smyly Tigers RP
Jesse Crain White Sox RP
Clay Buchholz* Red Sox SP
FIRST REPLACEMENTS
Kyle Seager Mariners 3B
Omar Infante Tigers 2B
Howie Kendrick Angels 2B
Adrian Beltre Rangers 3B
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners SP
Joaquin Benoit Tigers RP
Joe Nathan Rangers RP
* injured

The Morning Edition (July 4, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Felix and Holland hold both clubs to 2 runs, but the bullpens settle it in 10 on a Seager bomb
  • Gomes walks off on the Padres
  • Nolasco does well in front of the scouts, beats the Braves
  • Norris pitches well in trade audition to beat the Rays
  • CC goes 7 to beat the Twins
  • Grilli gives up 2 runs, gets a save anyway because the save rule is silly
  • Lohse twirls a gem to top the Nats

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Cain and Leake in Cinci (1p Eastern)
  • Gerrit Cole Hamles matchup! (1p Eastern)
  • Shields continues to get no help from his team (2p Eastern)
  • Wainwright takes on the Angels (9p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What’s your take on the no-hitter war?

Brian Kenny, who we’re quite fond of at New English D, took to the airwaves and Twitter on Wednesday to mock the attention give to no-hitters because walks and hit batters are part of the game and that separating it into hits and other ways to get on base is misguided. While I understand the sentiment and am I big believing in walks as offensive weapons, there is a different argument that Kenny hasn’t responded to at this point. No hitters are not always great performances, I fully agree. A one hit shutout is better than a 5 walk no hitter, but no hitters in all their forms are much rarer that no walk games. Since 1916, there have been more than 9,000 CG with no BB or HBP, but less than 300 CG with no hits. Less than 30 with no baserunners, period. The point here is that one baserunner is one baserunner no matter how he gets on, but it is much rarer to allow no hits than no walks and that is something worth celebrating. Kenny is right that the mainstream press doesn’t cover one hitters appropriately compared to no hitters with several walks, but I think the problem is in the other direction. Kenny thinks no-hitters are no big deal when the pitcher walks a couple guys, but I think we just don’t give enough credit to 1 and 2 hitters. Here at New English D, we make an attempt to highlight all great pitching performances, but do value the no hitter because the no hitter is rare and it’s quirky. After all, baseball is fun. I don’t usually disagree with Kenny, but on this issue I do.

The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
  • Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
  • Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
  • Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
  • Darvish beats Latos
  • The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
  • Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
  • Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
  • Sox walk off on the Jays

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
  • Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
  • Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What’s a realistic season for Puig?

The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.

Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013

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In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.

Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.

Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.

Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).

57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)

Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS

51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)

Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS

49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)

Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS

19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)

Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS

18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)

McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH

11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)

All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH

9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)

Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH

8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)

Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT

7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH

6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT

5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)

Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS

4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)

Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:

pic1

I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS

3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)

Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT

2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)

Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT

1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)

Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:

pic2

Not bad. HIT

Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.

The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
  • Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
  • Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
  • Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
  • Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
  • Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
  • Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
  • James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
  • Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
  • Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
  • Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • How long until we stop idolizing closers?

I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:

  1. Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
  2. High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
  3. High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
  4. Right Handed Specialist
  5. Left Handed Specialist
  6. Long Reliever
  7. Long Reliever

I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.