How Was The Game? (June 19, 2013)
An ambush.
Orioles 13, Tigers 3
Everything went reasonably well for the Tigers today except the top half of the 4th inning in which the Orioles hit Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.2 WAR) hard and then, of course, the 9th inning. It was a peculiar 4th inning given that Porcello was dominant in the other 5 innings, 3 of which came before and 2 of which came after. He finished with 6 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 0 walks, and 4 K, but all six runs and six of the nine hits happened in the span of 11 batters before he got himself straightened out. I’m not concerned given how well he’s performed this season with career best 7.46 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, and 2.98 xFIP even after today’s game. The offense made some noise, but only turned it into 3 runs, two of which came on a Tuiasosopo pinch hit double before the bullpen allowed 3 runs to give the Orioles sufficient cushion who then put up a 4 spot on Valverde in the 9th, who simply cannot get MLB hitters out at this point and needs to be released before Jim Leyland can use him again. The Tigers dropped their second series of the season to the Orioles, but still stand at 39-31 on the season, and thankfully never have to play the Orioles again this season. I say that because MLB doesn’t allow people in North Carolina (where I live) to watch the Baltimore Orioles* under any circumstances, so I’ve spend the last three days listening on the radio like a caveman. Things will get back to normal as the Red Sox come to town for four starting Thursday with Jose Alvarez (1-0 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 0.1 WAR) making his second start of the year in place of Sanchez.
The Moment: Tuiasosopo doubles in a pair to make it a game.
*Or the Washington Nationals
Dynamic Standings Projection (June 19, 2013)
In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the June 18 games.
The Morning Edition (June 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey flirts with a no-no, Ks 13 and Wheeler goes 6 scoreless to sweep the DH
- The Sox sweep the Rays in a DH as Gomes walks off
- Goldy walks off in the desert
- Sweeney and Ranson homer to beat Wainwright
- Parker out does Darvish, despite 10 K
- Lee dazzles again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ryu and Kuroda in NY (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez faces Cahill at Chase Field (330p Eastern)
- Chris Sale gets the Twins after the hardest of luck losses last time (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What Tuesday a glimpse into the Mets future?
Matt Harvey pulled into a WAR tie with league leader Adam Wainwright after their starts on Tuesday at 3.8 after a great start featuring 13 K. He has a 2.04 FIP and a nearly 5:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t like to make big proclamations like this, but he’s probably the under 25 pitcher to watch if we’re thinking about who are going to be the game’s best in the next four or five seasons. But his rotation mate was strong too, as far as strikeouts and run prevention go. The walks were a bit of an issue, but Wheeler is young and should improve. I like the Mets rotation, now only if they could play OF on their off days. And if you’re like me and enjoy this kind of thing, here’s what they did on Tuesday:
How Was The Game? (June 18, 2013)
Surprising.
Orioles 5, Tigers 2
One characterizes this game as surprising, partially because Justin Verlander (8-5, 92 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.8 WAR) pitched poorly despite some very good signs early and partially because Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder both popped out representing the tying run in the 7th inning and then Cabrera grounded into a double play to end the game. Verlander only went 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 5 runs, and 4 walks while striking out 5. He gave up two homeruns, one to Hardy and one to Jones, that delivered all of the runs, but 11 baserunners in 5 innings is too many for Verlander regardless of how the runs were clustered. Britton kept the Tigers at bay, but started to open the door before being pulled. Tuiasosopo homered in the 5th and Jackson drove in a run in the 7th but the Tigers would get no closer. Downs, who is having a strong season, and Putkonen did nice work in relief, but the damage had been done. The Tigers will still have a change to take the series against a very good team behind Rick Porcello (4-3, 70 IP, 4.37 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.3 WAR) who is having his breakout season, as described here.
The Moment: Tuiasosopo homers the other way in the 5th.
Darin Downs, Very Capable Reliever
A great deal has been said and written about the Tigers and their bullpen struggles. I’ve taken part, offering criticism of signing Valverde, discussing why closers don’t matter, and explaining how I would use a bullpen. And I think we’re probably all on board with the idea that Smyly and Benoit are the Tigers best relief pitchers, even if we don’t agree on how a team should use their best relievers.
Yet in all the madness, we’ve overlooked a very good reliever in the Tigers bullpen, likely because Jim Leyland doesn’t use him very much. I said this on June 15th when Downs came on to pitch:
Some of that comes from the Tigers having an incredible rotation and not needing much relief help, but the idea that Leyland didn’t use Downs for nearly two weeks when he was running Valverde out six times is a bit of an issue. Why? Because Darin Downs has actually pitched really, really well.
In 19 games, Downs has 25.1 IP and sports a 11.09 K/9, 2.49 BB.9, and 1.07 HR/9 rate which equates to a 3.22 FIP and 3.23 xFIP along with his 3.91 ERA and 0.4 WAR. Two things jump out about that line. First, his K and BB rates are very good (29.3% and 6.6% if you prefer) but also that his performance looks entirely sustainable in the sense that his peripherals are in line with his results. He’s faced only 106 batters, so maybe this is just the best stretch of his career, but if it is, the Tigers should at least be riding the streak.
Last year, he was good also, if not quite this good (3.48 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.82 xFIP in 20.2 IP). So this isn’t totally out of nowhere. He leads all Tigers pitchers in O-Swing% (getting hitters to swing at pitchers out of the zone) at 37.9% and only Alburquerque has allowed less contact. Only Evan Reed has thrown more first pitch strikes.
I’m fully aware that I’m walking on small sample size thin ice, but I’m going to press on because I think this gets interesting if you’re willing to stay with me.
Here are his K/9 and BB/9 over the last two seasons (K% and BB% look the same):
And he’s inducing more swings on pitchers outside the zone and fewer inside the zone:
Downs is getting hitters to chase more outside the zone and take more inside the zone, which goes nicely with the fact that hitters are making less contact outside the zone and more inside the zone this year:
And in a very boring visual, he’s also throwing more first pitch strikes than last year:
So if we’re willing to accept our hands are tied with small samples any time we analyze relievers, Downs looks good. He’s improved from last year to this year and his numbers are quite good this season. If we’re going to look at statistics for relievers at all, the statistics tell a good story regarding Downs. He’s good and he’s getting better.
So what’s different? It could be simple variation, but there is something else I want to highlight. It’s not just the results that are better, the pitches are better too. Let’s start with his pitches from 2012:
And here is Downs this season:
Notice how the changeup and fastball is moving more this season and notice how there is more separation between the fastball and the changeup. His pitchers are moving more and the separation has gotten a bit better. That’s generally a good formula for success. And I think Downs has figured it out. Here’s how he’s mixing his pitches:
He’s going to the changeup instead of the curveball more often, just like so many Tigers pitchers, and it’s becoming a better pitch for him. He’s throwing the changeup more and he’s getting more swings and misses on it, and also with the curveball, possibly because hitters now have to worry about a good changeup and can’t read the offspeed pitch as well:
And no, Darin Downs does not have a platoon split this season. In fact, he’s both faced more righties (58 vs 48) and done better work against them this season. Hey, aren’t changeups used to get opposite handed hitters out?!
So the story with Downs is this. He’s having a good season and by all accounts he has gotten better since last season, and that improvement is based on some actual differences in his pitches and pitch usage. When we dive into reliever stats, we can often get lost in small samples, but if we’re going to evaluate relievers, and clearly we are, everything is going in the right direction for Downs.
It’s about time he gets the recognition he deserves and maybe even some high leverage appearances.
Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis Own 2013
Miguel Cabrera came into 2013 having recently won an MVP and the first Triple Crown in decades. No one would bat an eye if you mentioned his name among the greatest hitters in baseball history whether the listener was a believer in batting average and RBI or wOBA and WAR. His off field issues might cause some whispers, but his name is essentially synonymous with great hitting.
Chris Davis had a well-established reputation of being a slugging hacker. Lots of power, not much of an approach at the plate. The Orioles got a solid season out of him in 2012, but it was a 2.0 WAR kind of season, not a Miguel Cabrera kind of season. He was 27 years old in need of a strong season to avoid being labeled a platoon player.
But that was two and a half months ago. Cabrera’s story isn’t much different. He’s having his best season, but that doesn’t surprise you very much. He’s always been a star. But Davis’ story is much different. Chris Davis was closer to Crash Davis that he was to Miguel Cabrera a year ago, but now he and Cabrera are sharing the leaderboards and a lot of sentences about the game’s best hitters right now.
This isn’t a post about who Cabrera and Davis were before or who they are going to be after. This is Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis in the summer of 2013.
(All statistics reflect the season to date as of 6/17, before the start of the Tigers-Orioles series at Comerica Park)
Cabrera is hitting for a higher average and is getting on base more frequently, but Davis is making up for it with a higher slugging percentage. Balance those differences out and their wOBA are nearly identical.
Once we control for park and league average, Chris Davis tops Cabrera in wRC+ narrowly 194 to 189. In terms of overall offensive value, they have essentially been the same player thus far. Remember, this post isn’t about what to expect in the future, it’s about what they’ve done to this point.
Breaking down the SLG, you can see the hit distribution gives Davis more extra base hits, but Cabrera has more hits period.
Having read this far, I probably don’t have to tell you that Miguel Cabrera’s approach at the plate has been better:
And Davis hits more fly balls in place of the ground balls hit by Cabrera:
In 2013, Cabrera and Davis have been about equally valuable on offense when you break it down. Davis is slugging it a little more so than Cabrera, who is focusing more on getting on base, but neither is bad at either. They both have the HR and RBI if you’re looking for Triple Crown narratives. Davis is 1st in HR, Cabrera 2nd. Cabrera leads in RBI, Davis is 2nd. Cabrera leads in average, Davis is second.
It’s a draw, with a slight edge to Davis. Cabrera has the track record and will certainly have the better career, but right now at this moment, they are essentially the same.
That’s amazing and wonderful and weird. Think of it like this. A year ago, Miguel Cabrera was crafting the first half of an MVP season. Chris Davis was the position player the Orioles called on to pitch in a marathon game with the Red Sox on May 6th.
I didn’t have to look up the date, I remember it pretty well. I read about in a hotel room on my wedding night. A year ago, Chris Davis was so expendable to the Orioles that they let him pitch. Now he is, for all intents and purposes, Miguel Cabrera.
That’s pretty freaking cool. Baseball is often predictable, but there are plenty of exceptions to prove the rule. Davis is having quite the exceptional year. I’ll be glad once he leaves town and does his Cabrera impression against other clubs.
The Morning Edition (June 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Johnson and De La Rosa both go 7 scoreless, but the Jays score late to win
- The Nats tie it in the 9th, but Brown walks off for the Phils
- The Royals get 2 late runs to beat the Indians 2-1
- 5 good innings for Miller, who leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Matt Harveys come to ATL (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Nationals (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler makes him MLB debut in game two of a DH (7p Eastern)
- Parker and Darvish in Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Sharky and Wainwright in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can the Mets make tomorrow Groundhog Day?
It’s been a tough season for Mets fans, but they should have fun tomorrow. They have ace and Cy Young contender Matt Harvey opening the day, but top prospect Zack Wheeler will make his debut in the night cap. Harvey has already showed himself to be a star, but if Wheeler can be as good as advertised, this could be quite the 1-2 punch for the next 6 seasons. I bet the Giants wish they still had him. Wheeler’s strikeout rate in the minor leagues has been great, but he’ll need to dampen the walks a bit to succeed in the big leagues. Luckily for him, he gets the strikeout prone Braves in his debut.
How Was The Game? (June 17, 2013)
Another gem, this time from Scherzer.
Tigers 5, Orioles 1
We’re at the point, where it is hardly news now when a Tigers starting pitcher throws a brilliant game. It was Max Scherzer (10-0, 96.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 3.1 WAR) who did it tonight, delivering a 6 inning, 1 R, 2 BB, and 10 K line with the only blemish being a homerun to Chris Davis. The Tigers rotation is on pace to be the best rotation in MLB history and Scherzer is now the 2nd best pitcher in the AL by WAR, trailing only King Felix, who has made an additional start. The Tigers offense came from a 2 run bomb from Cabrera in the 1st, a Jackson single in the 2nd, a Martinez sac fly in the 5th, and a Peralta single in the next at bat. Leyland even brought Smyly in at the right time to get 9 outs! But the moment of the night, no doubt, was Scherzer striking out Davis with the bases loaded to end the 5th inning. Here’s how he got him, with exceptional control and terrific velocity:
I mean, what do you do against a guy who can offer this mix:
The win finally pushes the Tigers 10 games over .500 to 39-29 as they send Justin Verlander (8-4, 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.0 WAR) to the hill tomorrow looking to take the series.
The Moment: Scherzer gets Davis to strikeout with the bases loaded to end the 5th.
The 2013 Tigers Are The Best Rotation…Ever (So Far)
Regular readers will not be surprised to hear me say the Tigers rotation is exceptional and many of you have probably seen Dave Cameron’s take from a few weeks ago on the same subject. His point, which is the one I’ll pick up here, is that when we adjust Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) for ballpark effects and league average, the Tigers have the best rotation ever, no hyperbole added.
Those adjustments will look like this: League average FIP- is 100 and every point above or below average is a percent better. Pitchers want the lowest FIP- possible.
The current record for FIP- belongs to the 1971 White Sox at 77 with a handful of other clubs packing around 77-79. The 2013 Tigers are setting the pace, however, at 64. Consider what that means. The best rotation of all time was 23% better than league average. The Tigers rotation is 36% better than league average.
Certainly, the season isn’t even half over and there is time for the Tigers to cough this up, but they have a pretty big cushion. They’re getting contributions from all five starters who all have a FIP below 3.50 and all have xFIPs at 3.20 or below. More amazingly, the strikeout rate is off the charts. We have to acknowledge that this is a high strikeout era, but the Tigers current K/9 from the starting rotation is 9.51. The MLB record is 8.62 from the 2003 Cubs. The Tigers have a K:BB ratio of 4.46. The MLB record is 4.22 from the 2011 Phillies.
The Tigers rotation leads baseball in K/9 by a ton, is 3rd in BB/9, and 2nd in HR/9. They’re essentially dominating hitters in a way that we’ve never seen before. Currently, they’ve accumulated 13.2 WAR, which is 3.3 wins more than the 2nd place Cardinals and they are nearly halfway to the record set by the 1970 Cubs (29.4).
It’s a rotation on an historic pace. If we plot FIP- and ERA- (which is the same principle comparing to league average) it just looks silly. This is every starting rotation in MLB history, including the other 2013 rotations who are already regressing to the mean.
One would except the Tigers to regress toward the line that obvious runs through this plot, but it’s not entirely clear in which direction they will move. FIP and xFIP are more predictive than ERA, so you would expect that they would move left on the graph before they moved up, but that seems equally ridiculous given a subpar defense and the fact that an ERA- that low would also be silly.
I’ve written before about how the Tigers as a team are throwing more changeups and how Scherzer, Porcello, and Sanchez have all made leaps into the upper echelons of MLB starters. This is a truly remarkable rotation that Dave Dombrowski has assembled. Most teams would kill for their worst starter. Their fourth best starter would be the ace on almost every team this season. They have the 4th, 6th, 8th, and 11th best pitchers by WAR this season. They have the 2nd, 7th, 8th, and 12th best starters by FIP and the five Tigers starters are 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 16th best pitchers by xFIP in MLB right now.
If you sort AL starters by xFIP all five Tigers starters are in the top 10. Three of the top four AL starters in K/9 are Tigers. Justin Verlander has the Tigers worst BB/9. Justin Verlander.
This is, perhaps, the most incredible rotation we’ve ever seen. If you look at the individuals starters and how they compare to their peers you certainly have to wonder where the Tigers rank all-time. As it turns out, they rank quite well. By strikeouts, walks, and homeruns allowed, the three categories that build FIP, pitchers have complete control over, and generally predict future performance, the 2013 Tigers are not just the best rotation we’ve ever seen, it’s not really even that close.
With 95 games to play, the Tigers staff is working on a season for the ages.
The Morning Edition (June 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Strasburg erratic, but decent in loss against Kluber’s 8 IP, 8K
- Nieuwenhuis walks off on Marmol, lifts Mets
- Blanks homers late to back Richard and the Padres to their 6th straight win
- Iwakuma struggles as Colon rolls, A’s win 10-2
- The Angels get 5 in the 9th, but Pujols Ks with the tying run on 2nd to lose to the Yanks
- 3 HR lift Wang and the Jays over the Rangers
- Astros sweep the White Sox
- Greinke struggles in first start since brawl, falls to Pirates and Cole
- Lester Ks 8, walks 0 despite giving up 5 ER in 5 innings
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby “Must-Watch” Miller faces the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Liriano faces Leake for NL Central glory (7p Eastern)
- Turner and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we think of the Padres?
I ranked the Padres 22nd coming into the season and 26th and 27th entering May and June in the New English D power rankings, but here they come in the standings with 6 straight wins and the team above .500 to 35-34 and just 2 back in the West. I was bullish on them coming into the season, but the pitching was pretty bad and I sort of gave up. They’re dead last in WAR (-1.9) and in the bottom 3 in park adjusted ERA, FIP, and xFIP. And they haven’t really gotten better in the last few weeks despite going 17-12 over their last 19. They’re surprisingly 5th in position player WAR, but you can’t compete at the big league level with pitching that bad.
New English D 