Revisiting The Nine Best Shortstops for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next few weeks I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
We’ve already covered the catchers, first basemen, and second basemen so let’s move on to first base. Here’s The Nine Best Shortstops for 2013. Numbers are as of the July 22.
35. Derek Jeter, Yankees (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.0)
When I wrote the list, the word on Jeter was that he’s going to be ready early in the season and that obviously didn’t reflect reality. I absorb some of the blame for not being more cautious on Jeter, but I also can’t do much more than trust a basic medical timetable. He’s played 0 games at SS this year and only one game at DH. MISS
22. Alcides Escobar, Royals (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.7)
Escobar was trending up offensively over the last few seasons but has been absolutely awful at the plate this season, posting a 59 wRC+ (what’s wRC+?). Escobar has done a nice job adding value on the bases and on defense so this pick wasn’t a massive whiff, but the previous gains at the plate have gone missing. MISS
21. Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Preseason Rank: 2, 2013 WAR: 0.7)
The Andrus story matches the Escobar one. He’s been a very solid offensive player over his first few seasons but has looked terrible to date in 2013 at the dish. He’s still adding tons of value on the field and on the bases, but at the dish he’s at 58 wRC+. Coming off a big contract it makes you sweat if you’re a Rangers fan because Andrus doesn’t need to be great to earn the deal, but he can’t be this bad.
18. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9)
Rollins is only a little off the pace I pegged him for at #6, but he’s not putting up the offensive numbers he needs to this season. Right now he’s playing like an average shortstop instead of an above average one and it’s to blame for his stop on this list. He’s getting older, but I bet he’s got another nice run in there somewhere. MISS
17. Jose Reyes, Jays (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 1.0)
Reyes is having a top 3 season right now when he’s on the field, but of course, he’s missed time with an injury. I gambled on health with my ranking, but he’s be matching it if he didn’t get hurt so I don’t feel too bad about the performance half of my judgement. I’m holding off on judgement because he could easily run off an amazing second half and get close to the top of the list. PUSH
10. JJ Hardy, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.7)
The Hardy ranking is a little off mostly because of the other guys on the list. He’s having the season I’d have pegged him for, low OBP, nice pop, solid defense. The reason he’s at 10 instead of 5 is because I whiffed on a lot of guys ahead of him. I’m calling this a push for now, but it’s probably going to end up as a miss. PUSH
9. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Ramirez is getting much of his value from great defense and solid baserunning but he’s doing well enough at the dish (79 wRC+) to add some value at the plate given his position. He has no pop and no eye at the plate, but for now his BABIP is high enough that it is carrying him to a solid batting average. I don’t think this ranking sticks and he was just off my original list. HIT
8. Andrelton Simmons, Braves (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
I thought Simmons would hit a bit better than this, but his amazing, all-world defensive is what carries him. He’s got a 14 UZR right now and is slugging pretty well for a SS despite his low OBP. He’s not going to be in the top 4, but he’s very good. MISS
7. Yunel Escobar, Rays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.3)
Yeah, I never know what to make of this guy. I’m sure I didn’t give him enough credit, partially for his non-baseball issues, but anytime the Rays trade for you, you’re worth watching. Solid bat and good defense for Escobar this year. MISS
6. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.7)
I figured Peralta for a bounce back season, but not to this degree. Peralta is the 5th best SS on our list at the plate and has put together a league average season in the field. Peralta is doing it with a high BABIP, but he’s kept it up for 90+ games, so it’s probably not going to come crashing down and totally erase his value. MISS
5. Everth Cabrera, Padres (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.9)
So he’s a great baserunner and always has been. But he’s added 45 points in OBP and 70 points in SLG over last season. I don’t know what you want from me. If you saw this coming, you’re a better predictor of SS that me. MISS
4. Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 3.1)
I left Hanley just off the list because I was worried about his ability to stay healthy. Good call, Neil. He’s at 3 WAR in 42 games. Whatever, this is stupid. MISS
3. Jean Segura, Brewers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 3.3)
Segura is having a great season. He’s hitting like a madman. I didn’t know enough about his skills as a prospect coming into the season to rank him, but at least for now, I’ve missed. I don’t think this level is sustainable, but he’s certainly good enough to have made the list. MISS
2. Ian Desmond, Nationals (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
So I’ll be honest, I have no idea what to make of Ian Desmond. No non-Ben Zobrist SS put up a higher WAR (5.4) in 2012, but it seemingly came out of nowhere. He walked no more than previous years and struck out no less. His BABIP ticked up a bit and UZR liked him better, but he also managed to hit for a lot higher average and more power. That’s generally a good sign, but it’s also a bit strange. He didn’t improve his approach at the plate and his BABIP didn’t shoot up, but he got a lot better. I’m generally favorable toward Desmond, but I just don’t know if we’re going to look back at last year as a fluke or not. I’m not quite ready to buy into him just year, but check back later in the season because he could make me a believer in no time.
That’s what I said about him before the season. I’m just going to let that stand. PUSH
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 3.6)
Tulo is the best SS in baseball despite missing 30 games. Great defender and he’s an elite hitter at any position. This is the best shortstop in baseball when he’s on the field, and apparently, sometimes when he isn’t. After a pretty bad ranking so far, I’m hanging my hat on not screwing this one up. HIT
The Nine Worst 100 RBI Seasons in MLB History
Yesterday we took a look at a case study in RBI to help explain why it’s a misleading statistic. The idea here is that RBI is very dependent on your team and the context you’re in. Two identical hitters will accumulate much different RBI totals depending on how many runners on base ahead of them and which bases those runners occupy. You can read all about it here.
Today, I’d like to start highlighting some broader evidence of the problems with RBI as a stat. You’ve already seen how a better season can result in fewer RBI depending on how the team around you performs, now let’s take a look at The Nine Worst 100 RBI Seasons in MLB History. This list is meant to show you that you can have a very poor season and still accumulate 100 RBI, which is often considered a magic number by people who value RBI. The phrase “100 RBI guy” is something you might here an analyst like John Kruk say when commenting on a player’s value. I’m here to show you that 100 RBI does not necessarily mean the player had a very good season.
Below, we have The Nine worst seasons by wRC+ since 1901 in which the player drove in 100 or more runs. wRC+ is a statistic that measures how a player stacks up to other players in the league and it factors in park effects. It’s easy to interpret the number. A wRC+ of 100 is league average and every point above 100 is a percent better than average a percent below average is a 99 wRC+. For example, an 85 wRC+ is a player who is 15% worse than a league average player. 115 wRC+ is 15% better than league average. You can read all about wRC+ here.
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | PA | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
| 9 | 1927 | Glenn Wright | Pirates | 626 | 105 | 0.281 | 0.328 | 0.388 | 86 |
| 8 | 2006 | Jeff Francoeur | Braves | 686 | 103 | 0.260 | 0.293 | 0.449 | 84 |
| 7 | 1983 | Tony Armas | Red Sox | 613 | 107 | 0.218 | 0.254 | 0.453 | 84 |
| 6 | 1934 | Ray Pepper | Browns | 598 | 101 | 0.298 | 0.333 | 0.399 | 82 |
| 5 | 1990 | Joe Carter | Padres | 697 | 115 | 0.232 | 0.290 | 0.391 | 80 |
| 4 | 1993 | Ruben Sierra | Athletics | 692 | 101 | 0.233 | 0.288 | 0.390 | 79 |
| 3 | 1999 | Vinny Castilla | Rockies | 674 | 102 | 0.275 | 0.331 | 0.478 | 78 |
| 2 | 2004 | Tony Batista | Expos | 650 | 110 | 0.241 | 0.272 | 0.455 | 77 |
| 1 | 1997 | Joe Carter | Blue Jays | 668 | 102 | 0.234 | 0.284 | 0.399 | 72 |
What you have here is a list of players who are “100 RBI guys” who were substantially worse than league average. Perhaps some comparisons might be help. Let’s find a couple of current MLB players who slot in around 70-85 wRC+. Brendan Ryan has a career 72 wRC+. Jason Nix is at 72. Ramon Santiago is 75. Willie Bloomquist is 78. Ruben Tejada is 83. I’m not saying any of the guys on this list are bad players, I’m saying they all had bad seasons in which they still had 100 or more RBI. They guys had Ramon Santiago seasons at the plate and drove in over 100 runs.
Do you really want to place so much stock in a statistic that says a guy who hits like Brendan Ryan is among the league’s best hitters? I don’t. RBI is very much a team dependent statistic and we shouldn’t use it to value individual players. Players can’t control the situations you put them into, they can only control what they do in those situations. As seen here, even players who don’t do very well can still add RBI to their resumes if they are put into situations with many runners on base.
Revisiting The Nine Best Second Basemen for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
We’ve already covered the catchers and first basemen, so let’s move on to first base. Here’s The Nine Best Second Basemen for 2013. Numbers are as of the All-Star Break.
81. Dustin Ackley, Mariners (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: -0.6)
I would feel worse about Ackley if the rest of this list wasn’t as good as it is. I whiffed on this one. Ackley might have a future yet in MLB, but he’s not going to be a top 2B for 2013 unless something otherworldly happens. MISS
26. Aaron Hill, Dbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
Hill’s rate stats are great, he just got hurt and has only played 30 games after fracturing his hand. That’s not an “injury-prone” kind of injury, so it’s not like the kind of thing you should account for when considering a ranking because it could happen to anyone. This one is off, but for good reason. MISS
13. Ian Kinsler, Rangers (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.4)
Kinsler is much the same as Hill, as he missed time with an injury. The rate stats are good, but he hasn’t accumulated the value because he’s about 20-25 games short of his competitors. No sweat. PUSH
12. Neil Walker, Pirates (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 1.5)
Walker, too, is having a good season but missed a bit of time with an injury. He’s still pretty close to on track to finish 7th among 2B, so no issues here. HIT
10. Brandon Phillips, Reds (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 2.0)
Phillips is pretty much who I thought he’d be. A low on base, solid power guy who plays good defense. His precise ranking isn’t dead on, but it’s very close and there’s no reason to think he won’t be right around 6-8 when all is said and done. HIT
9. Marco Scutaro, Giants (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.1)
Scutaro is a guy who has gotten better as he’s aged and is doing a nice job getting on base and limiting strikeouts. I had him out of the top 9, but not that far. I’ll call it a push and see how things go. He’d certainly have been 10-13th before the season. PUSH
8. Ben Zobrist, Rays (Preseason Rank: 2 among RF, 2013 WAR: 2.2)
Zobrist started the year in RF and I could only rank him in one place. I ranked him as the 2nd best RF in baseball. Nothing you can do about that. PUSH
7. Omar Infante, Tigers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Infante has done a very nice job improving his defensive and baserunning game, which has done a lot to improve his overall value. Infante was a middle of the pack guy for me, so I undershot him a little to this point. MISS
6. Howie Kendrick, Angels (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Kendrick is another guy who I left just outside the list, and that’s on me. He’s having a strong year with the bat and it’s carrying him onto the list. MISS
5. Chase Utley, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.6)
I’m a huge Utley fan and ranked him first as a bit of bold prediction that he’d stay healthy. He’s the best 2B in baseball in my book but he’s had trouble staying healthy, and despite missing about 25 games, he’s still 5th on this list. If he plays 65 games the rest of the way at the pace he’s on, we’re talking about a 5+ win player in 130 games. I’ll stand by him. He won’t finish first, but he’s definitely going to stick in the top five. HIT
4. Jason Kipnis, Indians (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Kipnis was one of those young players coming into the season who could easily have taken the leap or faded back. He’s done the former and has established himself as one of the game’s better power hitting second basemen with .514 SLG to go with his .383 OBP and good baserunning. Kipnis may not sustain this pace, but he’s a very good second baseman who I expect to finish in the 4-7 range this season. HIT
3. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.7)
Number 3, nailed it. Pedroia is just a great all-around player. I don’t think much else needs to be said about a guy who gets on base, hits for solid power, plays good defense, and runs the bases well. Pedroia is great. HIT
2. Robinson Cano, Yankees (Preseason Rank: 2, 2013 WAR: 3.8)
Another direct hit. Cano is a very good hitter, trailing only Kipnis and the guy who is 1st on the list in wRC+ and his defense and baserunning are about average. He’s been the only Yankees who can stay healthy and he’s setting himself up for a big payday. HIT
1. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 4.3)
I really like Carpenter as a player, I just had no idea he was going to turn into this guy. Pretty much everyone will tell you he’s turned himself into a much better player and when I wrote the original list he wasn’t even a lock to get the 2B job. He’s done a great job. He’s the best hitting 2B in baseball right now and is playing great defense. MISS
The Nine Most Average Homeruns of the First Half
Homeruns are popular. They’re valuable, but their popularity probably outweighs their actual awesomeness in my mind. That’s me. You’re welcome to have your own view. Below, courtesy of ESPN’s Homerun Tracker we have a lot of cool information about every homerun in MLB this season including distance, speed off the bat, peak height, and a number of other things.
I’m often interested in league averages and deviations from average, so this should serve as the baseline for which homers should be judged. Below is a list of The Nine Most Average Homeruns of the First Half of 2013 (excluding the final two days). To calculate the most average homers I took the percent deviations from average of distance, speed off the bat, and peak height, squared them, and summed them together. These are the homeruns with values closest to zero.
For reference: League Average Distance is 397 feet, League Average Speed Off The Bat is 103.4 mph, and League Average Peak Height (Apex) is 87.2 feet.
(Distance in Feet/MPH/Height in Feet)
9. Starling Marte, Pirates (May 4th off Stephen Strasburg)
399/101.2/87
8. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (June 11 off Jose Quintana)
390/102.4/87
7. Billy Butler, Royals (July 9 off CC Sabathia)
402/102.8/86
6. Mike Moustakas, Royals (May 8 off Chris Tillman)
398/104.7/86
5. Ryan Braun, Brewers (May 22 off Hyun-Jin Ryu)
403/102.6/87
4. Andrelton Simmons, Braves (May 6 off Bronson Arroyo)
394/103.9/87
3. Luis Valbuena, Cubs (April 19 off Marco Estrada)
398/104.3/87
2. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (July 10 off Wesley Wright)
399/103.5/87
1. Jordy Mercer, Pirates (May 3 off Ross Detwiler)
396/103.5/87
I’m not sure how much this list can tell you about specific players, but hopefully it’s a nice demonstration about what the average homerun looks like. If you’re curious, the link to the ESPN list has video of each homerun so you can get an even better idea on video.
Revisiting The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
We’ve already covered the catchers, so let’s move on to first base. Here’s The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013. Numbers reflect start of play on July 6.
56. Mark Teixeira, Yankees (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: -0.2)
Teixeira was more hurt than I knew when I wrote the original list. Nothing you can do about a guy who only plays 15 games during a season due to injury. MISS
49. Albert Pujols, Angels (Preseason Rank: 2, 2013 WAR: -0.1)
Albert Pujols stated slow last season and came on strong in the second half. I’m not sure if that’s going to happen again or if his foot and ankle injury will improve enough that he can contribute the way he should. Granted, I knew Pujols was on the wrong side of 30 when I wrote the list, so maybe I should have been more cautious about his decline, but it’s safe to say one shouldn’t assume an all-time great player will simply cease being valuable out of nowhere. He’s producing at league average with a 99 wRC+ from a position that demands offense and is below average on defense and on the bases. Pujols likely won’t be this bad all season, but there is no way he can recover enough to save the prediction. MISS
31. Adam LaRoche, Nationals (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
He’s lost some power from his career year in 2012, but the OBP is nearly identical. LaRoche was my bold, wild card type pick, so I’m fine with being off the mark a bit. He’s defense rates below average this year despite being good each of the last three seasons. I assume that will turn around because 1B defensive skills shouldn’t deteriorate that quickly, so he’s probably more of a 2.5 WAR player than a 3.5 WAR player and that’s not a huge whiff. He’s probably a 10-13 1B for the whole season, so this is a miss, but not a huge one. MISS
30. Prince Fielder, Tigers (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
Fielder, currently at 123 wRC+, is performing well on offensive relative to league average, but not compared to the bar he set for himself. At this pace, he’s like to finish near the 8-10 mark, but he could easily snap out of it and start hitting for more power at any moment. There’s nothing physically wrong with him and he’s had the occasional season in his career that was just pretty good instead of great at the plate, so he could easily slug .550 the rest of the way and no one would find it strange. He’s costly on defense, but that’s a constant. He’s a top 9 1B on offense right now, but not comfortably enough to make up for his defense. MISS
15. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Despite some recent slumping Rizzo is only a bit off the pace he set in 2012 on which I based my evaluation. He’s 0.3 WAR back of 8th place, so I’m feeling pretty good right now. He’s playing strong defense and has a 110 wRC+. With a little better second half, he’s dead on. HIT
12. Freddie Freeman, Braves (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.4)
Freeman spent 15 days on the DL early in the season, but while he’s been on the field during the 70+ other games, he’s been right on pace for 5th. He’s the 6th best 1B by wRC+ and is hovering just below average on defense. Assuming he’s healthy and plays 140 games or so this season, he’s perfectly on track for the middle of the top 9. HIT
10. Allen Craig, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 1.5 WAR)
Craig is having essentially the exact season I’d have expected from him. In the initial ranking I said he was a phenomenal hitter (he’s 5th in wRC+) and nothing special with the glove (-2.2 UZR). His only issue would be health, which hasn’t bitten him yet and is just 0.1 WAR away from 7th on the list. If he doesn’t miss much time, this one looks great. HIT
9. Eric Hosmer, Royals (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 1.5)
Ha! Nailed it. He started a bit slow but things are picking up nicely and he has added value with the glove too. I’m a fan of his skills and think he can be a great player despite 2012’s disappointment. I’m not going to say much more and just bask in this precisely accurate ranking while it lasts. HIT
8. Brandon Belt, Giants (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR:1.6)
I like Belt, but the Giants have been screwing with his swing and playing time so much over the years it’s hard to feel good about any sort of prediction. He’s a patient hitter with a solid glove and I like him a lot as a player, I just didn’t think it was a good idea to rank him in the top 9 because I couldn’t predict the playing time. MISS
7. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Someone asked about him when I posted the original piece and I said he’d have been 10 or 11 for me, so finding him at 7, just ahead of that spot isn’t surprising. He’s hitting for a little more power than I thought, but other than that is right on track for the season I thought he’d have. HIT
6. Mark Trumbo, Angels (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Trumbo wasn’t ranked in the preseason because I expected him to get most of his reps at DH. Nothing you can really do about that one, but he’s a lowish OBP, high power guy who tends to run hot and cold. He’s actually be solid with the glove in Pujols’ stead, so I’m comfortable expecting him to finish near the back half of the list. PUSH
5. James Loney, Rays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.3)
I saw this coming. Not this exactly, but I did. Go to #30 on this list of bold predictions and you’ll see. I didn’t think he’d be a top 9 guy, but I’m taking credit for this because so few people had good things to say abut Loney going into the year. He’s always been a guy who could play defense and hit for average, but he was caught in between while looking to add power in LA, so arriving in Tampa and being told not to worry about it seems to have helped. HIT.
4. Edwin Encarnacion, Jays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.5)
I had Encarnacion figured in for a lot of games at DH, which has sort of happened. 45 games at 1B, 29 at DH, 10 at 3B so I didn’t expect him to add as much value because of the DH positional adjustment in WAR. I expected him to mash, but not to add this kind of overall value. I’m calling it a push because it was more of a playing time mistake than a production one. PUSH
3. Joey Votto, Reds (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Joey Votto is great and I said he would be great. His defensive rating is below average, which I don’t think will continue and that is the only think keeping him from another MVP type season. Votto is right on track for the 6.5-7.5 WAR season that I figured for him. HIT
2. Paul Goldschmidt, Dbacks (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Goldy was someone I agonized over and left him off with A-Gon right on the cusp. He’s been good enough to make that prediction a miss, but I do want to make clear I liked him a lot coming in, just not quite as much as I should have. He has amazingly gotten better from year to year across the board since coming to the big leagues and is very much in the MVP conversation with Votto and several other guys who will appear on other lists. I’m a Goldy fan and regret not putting him on the preseason list. MISS
1. Chris Davis, Orioles (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 4.6)
Yeah, didn’t see this coming. No one did. Not even Chris Davis’ mother expected him to elevated his game to near-Cabreraian levels. He’s mashing and is right in the thick of the AL MVP race. He’s not this good, but he’s also clearly good enough to hang on this list the rest of the way and I wouldn’t have put him in the top 12. Easily a miss and pretty darn impressive. I’m not buying him to finish #1, but he’s earned it for now. MISS
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Nine Worst 20 Win Season in MLB History
To regular readers it will come as no surprise that I’m part of the movement to remove the pitcher won/loss record from our baseball evaluations. I’ve written on the subject quite a bit, both with respect to individual seasons and entire careers, and this piece seems like a perfect fit to round out the discussion. It also helps that I got a direct request for this exact thing after I posted yesterday’s piece:
So what follows are The Nine Worst 20 Win Seasons in MLB history. It gets a little tricky to draw lines here, so let me give you a quick primer. I don’t want this post to be about pitchers who made a lot of starts so they got a lot of wins, but rather about pitchers who performed poorly and still got wins. Therefore, instead of using Wins Above Replacement as I did for the under 9 list, I will be using ERA- and FIP-, which are simply statistics that calculate the difference between a pitcher’s ERA or FIP and league average during that year. Also it controls for park effects, but it’s basically a way to compare an ERA from the deadball era to one from the steroid era.
I would personally prefer to see this done with FIP-, because it better reflects a pitcher’s skill, but I’m going to use ERA- as well so that this piece is more convincing. A pitcher who allows a lot of runs shouldn’t win a lot of games, and you should agree with that if you’re old school or new school.
Additionally, I’ve included lists from 1901-2012 and just 1945-2012 if you’re concerned about the number of starts inflating someone’s win total. That’s fair, so I’ve broken it down into four separate lists, all telling you the same thing. You can have a bad year and win 20 games. 20 games is the old school gold standard of performance, so this cutoff makes sense. If you’ll recall, there have been more than 8,000 qualifying seasons in MLB history and if you try to predict WAR, ERA, or FIP with wins, you get an adjusted R squared of less than .40 in all cases. This isn’t just about a few examples, it’s about the entire population of starting pitchers. For more on this, read the two links above and check out the bottom of this piece.
Here we go.
1945-2012 by ERA-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | ERA- |
| 9 | 1950 | Johnny Sain | Braves | 20 | 13 | 278.1 | 100 |
| 8 | 1965 | Sammy Ellis | Reds | 22 | 10 | 263.2 | 101 |
| 7 | 1973 | Paul Splittorff | Royals | 20 | 11 | 262 | 102 |
| 6 | 1971 | Steve Carlton | Cardinals | 20 | 9 | 273.1 | 103 |
| 5 | 1970 | Jim Merritt | Reds | 20 | 12 | 234 | 104 |
| 4 | 1980 | Joe Niekro | Astros | 20 | 12 | 256 | 106 |
| 3 | 1972 | Stan Bahnsen | White Sox | 21 | 16 | 252.1 | 113 |
| 2 | 1959 | Lew Burdette | Braves | 21 | 15 | 289.2 | 113 |
| 1 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 113 |
1945-2012 by FIP-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | FIP- |
| 9 | 1971 | Dave McNally | Orioles | 21 | 5 | 224.1 | 110 |
| 8 | 1967 | Mike McCormick | Giants | 22 | 10 | 262.1 | 110 |
| 7 | 1959 | Lew Burdette | Braves | 21 | 15 | 289.2 | 111 |
| 6 | 1990 | Bob Welch | Athletics | 27 | 6 | 238 | 112 |
| 5 | 1958 | Bob Turley | Yankees | 21 | 7 | 245.1 | 112 |
| 4 | 1979 | Joe Niekro | Astros | 21 | 11 | 263.2 | 114 |
| 3 | 1967 | Earl Wilson | Tigers | 22 | 11 | 264 | 114 |
| 2 | 1973 | Catfish Hunter | Athletics | 21 | 5 | 256.1 | 122 |
| 1 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 123 |
1901-2012 by ERA-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | ERA- |
| 9 | 1910 | George Mullin | Tigers | 21 | 12 | 289 | 109 |
| 8 | 1914 | Christy Mathewson | Giants | 24 | 13 | 312 | 110 |
| 7 | 1911 | Jack Coombs | Athletics | 28 | 12 | 336.2 | 110 |
| 6 | 1906 | Christy Mathewson | Giants | 22 | 12 | 266.2 | 112 |
| 5 | 1972 | Stan Bahnsen | White Sox | 21 | 16 | 252.1 | 113 |
| 4 | 1919 | Hooks Dauss | Tigers | 21 | 9 | 256.1 | 113 |
| 3 | 1959 | Lew Burdette | Braves | 21 | 15 | 289.2 | 113 |
| 2 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 113 |
| 1 | 1903 | Henry Schmidt | Superbas | 22 | 13 | 301 | 118 |
1901-2012 by FIP-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | FIP- |
| 9 | 1911 | Bob Harmon | Cardinals | 23 | 16 | 348 | 114 |
| 8 | 1921 | Joe Oeschger | Braves | 20 | 14 | 299 | 114 |
| 7 | 1967 | Earl Wilson | Tigers | 22 | 11 | 264 | 114 |
| 6 | 1903 | Henry Schmidt | Superbas | 22 | 13 | 301 | 114 |
| 5 | 1906 | Jack Taylor | – – – | 20 | 12 | 302.1 | 115 |
| 4 | 1910 | George Mullin | Tigers | 21 | 12 | 289 | 117 |
| 3 | 1908 | Nick Maddox | Pirates | 23 | 8 | 260.2 | 121 |
| 2 | 1973 | Catfish Hunter | Athletics | 21 | 5 | 256.1 | 122 |
| 1 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 123 |
And now, to bring the point home even further, let’s put an innings cap at 210 and take a look at 15+ win seasons since 1945 by ERA-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | FIP- | ERA- |
| 9 | 2003 | Ramon Ortiz | Angels | 16 | 13 | 32 | 180 | 5.2 | 5.26 | 0.9 | 119 | 117 |
| 8 | 1983 | Eric Show | Padres | 15 | 12 | 33 | 200.2 | 4.17 | 4.37 | 0.3 | 121 | 118 |
| 7 | 1989 | Storm Davis | Athletics | 19 | 7 | 31 | 169.1 | 4.36 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 123 | 119 |
| 6 | 2004 | Shawn Estes | Rockies | 15 | 8 | 34 | 202 | 5.84 | 5.54 | 1 | 112 | 120 |
| 5 | 1966 | Dave Giusti | Astros | 15 | 14 | 33 | 210 | 4.2 | 3.57 | 2.6 | 105 | 120 |
| 4 | 1999 | Kirk Rueter | Giants | 15 | 10 | 33 | 184.2 | 5.41 | 5.01 | 1.1 | 113 | 124 |
| 3 | 1989 | Andy Hawkins | Yankees | 15 | 15 | 34 | 208.1 | 4.8 | 4.44 | 1.2 | 117 | 124 |
| 2 | 1969 | Steve Blass | Pirates | 16 | 10 | 32 | 210 | 4.46 | 3.72 | 2 | 109 | 126 |
| 1 | 1980 | Dan Spillner | Indians | 16 | 11 | 30 | 194.1 | 5.28 | 4.45 | 1.4 | 110 | 130 |
And now again with FIP-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | ERA- | FIP- |
| 9 | 2012 | Barry Zito | Giants | 15 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 184.1 | 4.15 | 4.49 | 0.9 | 110 | 120 |
| 8 | 1983 | Eric Show | Padres | 15 | 12 | 35 | 33 | 200.2 | 4.17 | 4.37 | 0.3 | 118 | 121 |
| 7 | 1984 | Eric Show | Padres | 15 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 206.2 | 3.4 | 4.23 | 0.7 | 97 | 122 |
| 6 | 1963 | Phil Regan | Tigers | 15 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 189 | 3.86 | 4.58 | 0 | 104 | 123 |
| 5 | 1989 | Storm Davis | Athletics | 19 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 169.1 | 4.36 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 119 | 123 |
| 4 | 1975 | Jack Billingham | Reds | 15 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 208 | 4.11 | 4.43 | 0.4 | 114 | 124 |
| 3 | 2006 | Steve Trachsel | Mets | 15 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 164.2 | 4.97 | 5.5 | 0.1 | 114 | 125 |
| 2 | 1971 | Chuck Dobson | Athletics | 15 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 189 | 3.81 | 4.19 | 0.1 | 117 | 126 |
| 1 | 1950 | Tommy Byrne | Yankees | 15 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 203.1 | 4.74 | 5.51 | 0.5 | 107 | 128 |
Even when we limit the number of innings a pitcher throws, pitchers can still accumulate wins despite pitching much worse than league average.
So whether you like the simple and easy ERA or the more predictive and true FIP, here you have plenty of evidence that winning a lot of games doesn’t mean you had a good season. Guys on this list were 10 and 20% worse than league average in these seasons and still won the magic 20 games. This is further proof that wins do not reflect a pitcher’s individual performance.
You can be worse than average and still win at an elite level. Last week I showed how you can be much better than average and win fewer than 10 games. Yesterday, I showed that this isn’t a small sample size, single season trick. This is true in small samples and in large samples.
Here’s a quick look at every individual season in MLB history again up against ERA-. There is a trend, but the variation is huge. The adjusted R squared is .3046, meaning wins can only explain 30% of the variation in ERA relative to league average.
FIP- actually makes wins fare worse, at .1709 adjusted R squared. I won’t bother showing the graph because this one makes the point just fine. You can have an all time great season at run prevention and win 10 games and you can have a well below average season and win 20. Wins are about many factors and pitching is just one of them. You can have a great outing, great season, and great career and never get the wins you deserve and the exact opposite is true as well.
It’s time to outgrow the win and start talking about things that actually measure performance. Even if it’s ERA, which isn’t even the best way to do things. Let’s look at innings and strikeouts and FIP and WAR and everything else. Wins are the oldest statistic there is but they’ve long since lost their usefulness.
If you’re someone who believes heavily in wins, I challenge you to write a cogent response that defends their use. I’d be happy to publish it if you don’t have your own forum and will respond to your arguments. I want to be someone who helps move sabermetrics from a niche tool to the mainstream and I don’t want this to be about drawing lines between people who love baseball. This is my argument against wins, I hope that you take it to heart and really think about it.
Ask questions, look for evidence, and let’s talk about baseball. Share this with people who love wins and hate them. This shouldn’t be a partisan debate between the new and old, it should be about knowledge and fun. Always.
The Nine Best Seasons Under 9 Wins
At New English D we’re among the those who wish to see the pitcher win removed from our baseball consciousness. It doesn’t measure an individual pitcher’s skill, but that’s how people use it. A pitcher’s won-loss record is about his performance, but it’s also about his defense, his run support, the other starting pitcher, and the other team’s offense. Also, luck, but I’m fine with luck.
Our most recent podcast covers the topic at length, but evidence and examples can do more to convince you about the flaws of wins than my rambling ever could. The catalyst for this post comes from something I discovered last night when contributing to Brian Kenny’s noble effort to #KillTheWin:
Matt Harvey (Go Heels!) is better in games he doesn’t win than almost every other pitcher in the league is overall. It’s time we get his back.
The rules are simple, these are The Nine best season by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for qualifying starting pitchers who won fewer than nine games. In MLB history, there are 8286 qualifying seasons from 1901-2012 with 1187 finishing with fewer than 9 wins. These are the best.
9. Cliff Lee, 2012 Phillies
6-9, 211 IP, 3.16 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 4.9 WAR
8. Ken Johnson, 1962 Colt .45s
7-16, 197 IP, 3.84 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 5.0 WAR
7. Dutch Leonard, 1949 Cubs
7-16, 180 IP, 4.15 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 5.0 WAR
6. Bill Gullickson, 1981 Expos
7-9, 157.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 5.0 WAR
5. Al Benton, 1942 Tigers
7-13, 226.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 5.0 WAR
4. Steve Rogers, 1976 Expos
7-17, 230 IP, 3.25 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 5.1 WAR
3. Bob Welch, 1986 Dodgers
7-13, 235.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 5.3 WAR
2. Curt Schilling, 2003 Diamondbacks
8-9, 168 IP, 2.95 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 5.7 WAR
1. Nolan Ryan, 1987 Astros
8-16, 211.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 6.6 WAR
Wins generally correlate with good performance, but there are many cases in which good performances don’t result in wins and bad performances do. Pitchers can improve their likelihood of victory by pitching well, but they can’t guarantee it. Wins aren’t a completely useless measure of pitcher performance, but when we have so many statistics that are dramatically better, why should be place any importance on wins?
Here’s some evidence writ large. If we use Wins to predict three other statistics, WAR, ERA, and FIP, it doesn’t look good for wins.
| WAR | ERA | FIP | |
| Adjusted R Squared | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.13 |
What these numbers tell us is that 38, 24, and 13% of the variation in these numbers can be explained by variation in wins. Let’s give Wins the benefit of the doubt and pick WAR for the graph. There is a clear trend, but there is a lot of variation in WAR that wins can’t explain. The sample size here is over 8,000. You can be both terrible and amazing and achieve the same number of wins.
It’s time to #KillTheWin.
Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).
57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)
Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS
51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)
Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS
49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)
Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS
19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)
Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS
18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)
McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH
11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)
All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH
8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT
7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH
6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT
5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS
4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:
I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS
3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)
Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT
2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)
Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)
Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:
Not bad. HIT
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Nine Most Valuable Powerless Seasons of the Last Decade
Power hitters get all the headlines. And all the cash. People love homeruns. I get it, homeruns are good. But homeruns aren’t everything. Getting on base matters more than hitting for extra bases and defense and baserunning are important aspects of the game. ESPN has a homerun tracker, but they don’t have a leadoff single tracker. It’s a cultural thing.
So here, I’m going to pay homage to the powerless players who sometimes get overlooked. This is The Nine Most Valuable Powerless Seasons of the Last Decade. The rules are simple. These are the players who posted the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) values while having a slugging percentage that was below league average from 2004-2013.
For starters, here is league average slugging by season:
9. Russel Martin, 2008 Yankees (.396 SLG, 4.8 WAR)
8. B.J. Upton, 2008 Rays (.401 SLG, 4.8 WAR)
7. Brett Gardner, 2011 Yankees (.369 SLG, 4.9 WAR)
6. Nyjer Morgan, 2009 Pirates and Nationals (.388 SLG, 5.0 WAR)
5. Ichiro Suzuki, 2006 Mariners (.416 SLG, 5.3 WAR)
4. Jose Reyes, 2007 Mets (.421 SLG, 5.3 WAR)
3. Brett Gardner, 2010 Yankees (.379 SLG, 6.0 WAR)
2. Michael Bourn, 2012 Braves (.391 SLG, 6.1 WAR)
1. Chone Figgins, 2009 Angels (.393 SLG, 6.6 WAR)
Obviously, Figgins parlayed this season into a big deal and Upton, Bourn, Reyes, and Ichiro all did just fine for themselves too. So this group isn’t entirely underpaid, just under appreciated. Seriously, Michael Bourn finished 18th in the NL MVP vote last year despite having the 7th highest WAR among all NL players.
In 2013, Jacoby Ellsbury’s .391 SLG and 2.1 WAR lead the way.
The Nine Worst Seasons by “Closers”
At New English D we do not approve of the way modern bullpens are managed. We don’t appreciate the way managers chase “saves” and only go to proven closers in perfectly aligned save situations. We believe this to be an inefficient and illogical use of resources. If you’d like to catch up on the theory behind these views, here are three pieces we’ve publish this year on the subject that tell a pretty complete story:
But for now, as an exercise in the ridiculousness of closers and an exercise in fun baseball history, I present to you, The Nine Worst Seasons by Closers.
The rules are simple. Since “Saves” became an official statistic in 1969, there have been 5088 individual qualifying reliever seasons and among those there have been 557 relievers to get 30 or more save opportunities in a given season. Full disclosure, “Blown Saves” are not recorded in the first few years of the sample, so it’s possible I’m missing a few relievers who had 30 save opportunities because I added saves and blown saves to get save opps. The rankings below are determined by Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) because I believe that to be the best measure of pitcher performance because it takes into account strikeouts, walks, and homeruns without punishing anyone for bad defense or rewarding anyone who allows inherited runners to score. xFIP isn’t available for all of the years in question and WAR is a counting stat, so it would be misleading when comparing pitchers who threw a considerably different number of innings. (FYI: The average number of blown saves among pitchers who had at least 30 SVO in a season is 6. The average SV% in the sample is 85%.) You can find full stats for the relievers below here (Worst Closers).
9. Bobby Thigpen (1991 White Sox)
30 for 39 in SVO, 3.49 ERA, 5.18 FIP
8. Jorge Julio (2003 Orioles)
36 for 44 in SVO, 4.38 ERA, 5.20 FIP
7. Rocky Biddle (2003 Expos)
34 for 41 in SVO, 4.65 ERA, 5.26 FIP
6. Brad Lidge (2009 Phillies)
31 for 42 in SVO, 7.21 ERA, 5.45 FIP
5. Jeff Montgomery (1996 Royals)
24 for 34 in SVO, 4.26 ERA, 5.67 FIP
4. Jason Isringhausen (2006 Cardinals won World Series)
33 for 43 in SVO, 3.55 ERA, 5.70 FIP
3. Ambiorix Burgos (2006 Royals)
18 for 30 in SVO, 5.60 ERA, 5.89 FIP
2. Jose Mesa (1999 Mariners)
33 for 38 in SVO, 4.98 ERA, 5.92 FIP
1. Shawn Chacon (2004 Rockies)
35 for 44 in SVO, 7.11 ERA, 6.57 FIP
I’m fully aware that a list of the worst people to ever do something doesn’t prove much, but it’s interesting nonetheless. Seven of the nine worst closers in baseball history got 30 saves during their worst season. That has to tell you something about how easy it is to accumulate saves.
Also of note: The worst closer on this list who only blew one save is Fernando Rodney of the 2009 Tigers. He was 37/38 despite a 4.40 ERA and 4.56 FIP. Ah, the good old days.
New English D 