The Best Tigers Moments of 2013 – #10
For the next several weeks we’ll be rolling out our list of the best The Moment’s of 2013. The list is the product of winnowing down 173 moments from April to October into the best twenty. They vary in their importance but all captivated us in an important way. A few are silly, a few are excellent plays, and a few will travel down in Tigers lore. I hope you enjoy it.
#10 Rick Porcello’s First Career Complete Game
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Regular readers know about my affinity for Rick Porcello and my affinity for complete games. In four plus seasons, Porcello had never been given the chance to finish what he started and Leyland offered his starters almost no chances to do so in 2013. But with the offense cruising and Porcello on fire, he got his chance. Porcello walked one and struck out four as he allowed a single run during his nine inning affair and managed to retire the final seventeen White Sox that he faced. For most people, this probably doesn’t crack the top ten moments, but I actually struggled to leave it this low. I’m not sure that I can fully articulate why it filled me with so much joy, but it’s probably the most fun I had watching a Tigers game this year.
How Was The Game? (September 10, 2013)
The Best Tigers Moments of 2013 – #11
For the next several weeks we’ll be rolling out our list of the best The Moment’s of 2013. The list is the product of winnowing down 173 moments from April to October into the best twenty. They vary in their importance but all captivated us in an important way. A few are silly, a few are excellent plays, and a few will travel down in Tigers lore. I hope you enjoy it.
#11 – Victor’s circus play
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When you hear the words “Victor Martinez,” the images that come to mind are “good hitter,” “pretty swing,” and “adorable son.” Rarely, does one think “athletic defender,” but he we are. The game was wonderfully weird. There was a botched double play because the Red Sox tagged two Tigers out of order and an Avi Garcia double on a ball that Daniel Nava quite simply caught. But the play of the day, and the 11th best moment of the year, was this ridiculous play by VMart. He dives to his left to knock the ball down, goes after the ball as it rolls away, and then gives a perfect, back-handed flip to Smyly who was on the play the entire way. Just watch this thing a few times and bask in it’s glory.
How Was The Game? (June 23, 2013)
The Best Tigers Moments of 2013 – #12
For the next several weeks we’ll be rolling out our list of the best The Moment’s of 2013. The list is the product of winnowing down 173 moments from April to October into the best twenty. They vary in their importance but all captivated us in an important way. A few are silly, a few are excellent plays, and a few will travel down in Tigers lore. I hope you enjoy it.
#12 – Anibal Sanchez nearly throws a no hitter
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At the time, I wrote that it snuck up on us. Sanchez didn’t look dominant early on and his stuff wasn’t dynamite out of the gate. Both times I watched Verlander toss a no-hitter, I knew he was on from the first batter. He’s had that look other times, but on the night of his first one in 2007, I said to my father after the top of the first that “no one’s touching him tonight.” They didn’t. Sanchez didn’t have that look early, but before you knew it he had kept a zero under the “H” column in the box score. The tension built in the final innings until that pesky Joe Mauer came to the plate ready to ruin everyone’s good time. There’s something about a Friday night game during the summer – there’s just a different feel, even 700 miles away. It felt like it was going to be a spectacular finish right up until Mauer sent one right back up the box. Sanchez nailed down the shutout, but the no-no was gone. A great moment, even if it didn’t end the way you wanted it to. Pretty much the whole season in one game right there.
How Was The Game (May 24, 2013)
The Best Tigers Moments of 2013 – #13
For the next several weeks we’ll be rolling out our list of the best The Moment’s of 2013. The list is the product of winnowing down 173 moments from April to October into the best twenty. They vary in their importance but all captivated us in an important way. A few are silly, a few are excellent plays, and a few will travel down in Tigers lore. I hope you enjoy it.
#13 – Verlander Duels Sonny Gray
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One wouldn’t characterize the ending of this game as “good” or “something that didn’t make the author pout in disgust,” but the actual process of getting there was something else. Verlander had a rocky season, but he got it together down the stretch and was absolute nails in this game. He went seven innings, allowed four hits and a walk to go with 11 strikeouts including a really awesome battle in which he send Stephen Vogt down swinging with two on in the 5th. Gray was awesome in his own right, going 8 scoreless before the bullpens and managers decided a game that belonged to the starters. Several people proposed and I concurred that Verlander and Gray should have had to stay in the game until one of them lost it.
It was an amazing pitchers’ duel, even if it didn’t go the right way. The series did, and that’s really all that matters.
How Was The Game (October 5, 2013)
The Best Tigers Moments of 2013 – #14
For the next several weeks we’ll be rolling out our list of the best The Moment’s of 2013. The list is the product of winnowing down 173 moments from April to October into the best twenty. They vary in their importance but all captivated us in an important way. A few are silly, a few are excellent plays, and a few will travel down in Tigers lore. I hope you enjoy it.
#14 – Alex Avila’s 9th inning homerun in Houston
The Tigers had an early lead in this one, but lost it during a strange 7th inning in which the Astros scored on an error and an infield hit. In the top of the ninth, Kelly worked a leadoff walk, Peralta flied out to center, and Alex Avila, who was already stuck in his early season rut came to the plate. He worked a 3-0 count before taking the fourth pitch for a strike. The next pitch, from future teammate Jose Veras, came right down the middle and Avila smashed it to right center. Avila struggled for the next couple of months before turning it on down the stretch, but this big swing in Houston was one of the most excited plays of the year.
How Was The Game? (May 3, 2013)
The Best Tigers Moments of 2013 – #15
For the next several weeks we’ll be rolling out our list of the best The Moment’s of 2013. The list is the product of winnowing down 173 moments from April to October into the best twenty. They vary in their importance but all captivated us in an important way. A few are silly, a few are excellent plays, and a few will travel down in Tigers lore. I hope you enjoy it.
#15 – Brayan Pena tags Nick Swisher when Swisher though it was a foul ball
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This one doesn’t really need much description. The game turned out to be a 4-2 victory in extras, but this moment was a Moment for the sheer entertainment value. In fact, I’m not sure the two players involved could have matched the occasion any better.
How Was The Game (July 8, 2013)
The State Of The Tigers
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve been taking a look back at the 2013 Tigers and looking forward to the 2014 version of the team. We’ve taken a look at the rotation, bullpen, infield, and outfield – and somehow Avila and Holaday ended up not finding a home within any of those posts (Happy Birthday, Alex!). Let’s now take a look at the team as the sum of its parts.
They’re Going To Be Different
Five critical pieces of last year’s team are gone and Smyly is in an entirely different role. Peralta, Infante, Fielder, Fister, and Benoit will all wear different uniforms in 2014, which means a number of key positions will feature new players. New doesn’t necessarily mean better or worse, but it does mean that the style of play is going to change a good deal. And that’s before you consider that the manager and a good portion of the coaching staff is different, as well.
They’re Going To Play Better Defense
You can never predict baseball, but it’s safe to say that an infield consisting of Castellanos, Iglesias, Kinsler, and Cabrera will be better than one that included Cabrera, Peralta, Infante, and Fielder. How much better is up for debate but earlier this offseason, I estimated the difference being somewhere between one and six wins. That seems like a big range, but the lower bound is an improvement, so it’s going to be a feature of the team. You don’t have Fielder and Cabrera playing at spots at which they were among the very worst in the league. You’ve gone from a pretty good shortstop to a great one, and you’ve made a lateral move at second.
They’re Probably Going To Run More
Rajai Davis alone is going to double the team’s SB totals, but Kinsler runs the bases a little bit, and basic addition by subtraction will help by getting Fielder off the basepaths. Guys like Jackson, Dirks, and Iglesias might also be turned loose on the bases by the new coaching staff, but that remains to be seen.
They’re Probably Going To Hit Less
The Tigers traded offense for speed and defense this offseason, there’s no question. Fielder to Castellanos is a step down. Peratla to Iglesias is a step down. The differences aren’t huge, but if you had to bet, you’d bet on the 2014 Tigers being worse at the plate than the 2013 Tigers. We’re talking about a win or two worse due to Fielder’s down season, but that might end up being an important win.
The Rotation Will Be Worse
This one is cheating because it was pretty much impossible for it to get better. The 2013 Tigers were one of the best couple of rotations in baseball history, so even if they kept the band together, it wasn’t going to measure up. That said, trading down from Fister to Smyly, in addition to the natural regression, leaves the Tigers at least two wins worse in 2014, but probably something closer to four or five wins worse. That’s still amazing, but it’s worse.
The Bullpen Didn’t Really Get Better
The words “Joe Nathan” inspire confidence, but Benoit was a very good reliever last season. You lose Smyly for Krol, which is a downgrade. You gamble on Joba, who has stuff but hasn’t been effective in a very long time, and then you go to battle with Rondon, Al-Al, Coke, and Putkonen – all of whom you had last year. Coke should be better and Rondon could make a leap, but even if you squint, this is the same quality bullpen at a higher price.
They’re Still Going To Be Good
The opening sections make this sound like a doom and gloom post, but it isn’t. The Tigers were a great team in 2013. They won 93 games, but that includes completely phoning it in during the last five days of the season, having a completely injured Cabrera for the last six or so weeks, and some general underperformance of their peripherals due to some extremely weird management decisions that would be hard to repeat (Read: Valverde). The Tigers were a true talent 96-97 win team last year that won 93. This year, they’re probably a 90-91 true talent team that could win anywhere from 86 to 96 games. There are always elements of luck and fortune, but the Tigers are the best team in their division pretty comfortably. The Royals are better this year, the Indians are probably worse, and those other two teams don’t even register.
The Tigers stumbled through this offseason after the Fielder deal, but they were working from such a position of strength that it’s probably not going to matter as far as the regular season goes. There’s plenty left to happen before Spring Training and real baseball, but as the offseason winds down, the Tigers are a weaker version of a really strong team. That’s not satisfying relative to what they could have been, but it’s still not something over which to lose your head. They’re going to be good, but we’re past the point of good being a novelty. This is going to be a transition year for the Tigers, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a bad one.
The State Of The Tigers Bullpen
So it’s come to this; everyone’s favorite part of any baseball team. The bullpen. The ‘pen. Those guys at whom you scream constantly. We’ve gone through the rotation, infield, and outfield, and we’re left with relievers. Technically, we haven’t covered catching, but let’s leave that alone for now.
Because bullpens are fluid and contain tons of players, we’ll let the raw statistics do the talking for the relievers who were with the team in 2013 and won’t be in 2014. This series looks back and looks ahead, but for those pitchers who aren’t part of the future ‘pen, here’s how they contributed in 2013:
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR | Status? |
| Darin Downs | 29 | 35.1 | 9.42 | 2.80 | 1.02 | 4.84 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 0.3 | Astros |
| Jose Veras | 25 | 19.2 | 7.32 | 3.66 | 0.92 | 3.20 | 4.12 | 4.88 | 0.1 | Cubs |
| Octavio Dotel | 6 | 4.2 | 7.71 | 7.71 | 0.00 | 13.50 | 3.90 | 5.66 | 0.0 | FA |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 11 | 16.2 | 8.64 | 5.40 | 1.62 | 6.48 | 5.27 | 4.49 | -0.2 | FA |
| Jose Valverde | 20 | 19.1 | 8.84 | 2.79 | 2.79 | 5.59 | 6.36 | 4.09 | -0.5 | FA |
| Joaquin Benoit | 66 | 67 | 9.81 | 2.96 | 0.67 | 2.01 | 2.87 | 3.16 | 1.6 | Padres |
| Brayan Villarreal | 7 | 4.1 | 12.46 | 16.62 | 2.08 | 20.77 | 8.82 | 7.71 | -0.3 | Red Sox |
| Drew Smyly | 63 | 76 | 9.59 | 2.01 | 0.47 | 2.37 | 2.31 | 2.99 | 1.9 | Rotation |
The Tigers clearly didn’t see a future for Downs, but I actually think he’s got what it takes to be a very strong middle reliever. Aside from that, the loss of Benoit hurts and losing Smyly to the rotation will no doubt cost them. They added some pieces to compensate, which we’ll tackle in a moment, but there is a lot of value to make up just by considering who isn’t coming back.
Let’s also throw out some names who don’t figure to play a major role at the start of the year, but who did participate in the 2013 run.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
| Evan Reed | 16 | 23.1 | 6.56 | 3.09 | 0.77 | 4.24 | 3.86 | 3.92 | 0.1 |
| Jose Alvarez | 8 | 10.2 | 5.06 | 3.38 | 0.84 | 7.59 | 4.27 | 4.97 | 0.0 |
| Jose Ortega | 11 | 11.2 | 7.71 | 4.63 | 1.54 | 3.86 | 5.36 | 4.54 | -0.1 |
Reed, Alvarez, and Ortega didn’t have a lot of time to do much of anything in 2013, and they’ll be lurking at the first sign of trouble. We should also have an eye on guys like Casey Crosby, Luis Marte, and Corey Knebel as potential arms coming north during the season. That said, predicting bullpen call-ups is a crapshoot. Look for the guys throwing well when the big club needs an arm. Could be the six guys listed, could be anyone. Let’s focus now on who we expect to be on the roster for Opening Day.
Joe Nathan
Signing Joe Nathan was extremely predictable. The Tigers have wanted a closer forever, and they finally got their chance to buy one on the open market. It was a strange strategy, given they had just previously traded the cheaper Doug Fister to Washington, but in a vacuum, Nathan is a quality reliever on a reasonably fair deal.
If you take away the time he missed in 2010-11 due to injury, he’s been one of the best and most consistent relievers in baseball for a decade. He’s a step up from Benoit, although not a huge one, but the Tigers are paying for that luxury to the tune of an extra $2.5 million a season. Nathan should be very solid and reliable at the end of games for the Tigers in 2014.
Ian Krol
Krol is only about 30 innings into his big league career, so it’s too soon to look at his numbers and get much of a sense about who he’s going to be. He’s got a solid fastball and a nice hook. He’s got a chance to be a #1 lefty or maybe a quality setup man. He should be a nice piece for the team, but he’s also stepping into Smyly’s old spot – and there’s a very limited chance that he could perform the way Smyly did in 2013 because that was top of the line stuff.
Joba Chamberlain
Spending $2.5 million on a one-year deal is almost never a terrible move. As long as you’re willing to bail if the experiment fails, there’s no harm in it. Even a player like Delmon Young or Yuni Betancourt isn’t a disaster at $2.5 million. So signing Joba wasn’t a bad move, but it doesn’t inspire a lot of excitement. It’s been several years since Chamberlain was a valuable player and while scouts still like his stuff, he’s had serious command and homer problems. Joba might be a useful reliever, and getting him together with Jeff Jones could do wonders, but don’t expect the name-value of his 2007-2008 performance fool you into thinking this is a lights out reliever.
Al Alburquerque
Al-Al is a fun one, because his strikeout and walk numbers are both crazy high. Actually getting a hit is pretty rare. He gave up homeruns for, literally, the first time in his career in 2013, but remains deadly when healthy. In over 100 career innings, his ERA and FIP are both below 3.00. He’s a lights-out type guy with the potential to blow up on occasion, but he’s also pretty fragile. You can’t count on him for back to back days and fully healthy seasons, but when he’s on, there are few better at getting out of a tight spot.
Phil Coke
Coke is one of the league leaders in antics, but as far as his pitching goes, he’s a mixed bag. Coke had a pretty solid track record coming into the 2013 season, but just had a rough go of things the entire way. He was slated to be the team’s closer entering the first week, but quickly lost that gig to a very quick hook from Jim Leyland. He struggles with righties, but should be able to bounce back a bit and share the left-handed duties with Ian Krol. Coke isn’t anyone’s idea of a relief ace, but he’s a nice piece to have in your middle innings. Also, sprinting out of the bullpen is encouraged.
Luke Putkonen
I think Putkonen gets overlooked because most of his work comes in mop-up time, but he’s actually a pretty nice arm out of the pen. He’s got some zip on his fastball and generates a good amount of ground balls to go along with a decent mix of strikeouts and walks. He’s not a relief ace, but he was pretty good in 2013. Having him working the middle innings should work just fine. It’s only 45 career innings, but he’s working with a 3.35 ERA and 3.66 FIP. The Tigers could do worse.
Bruce Rondon
Rondon is pretty much the key to this entire thing. He did pretty well in 28.2 innings in 2013 and has the kind of velocity that can bail you out of a lot of situations. His breaking ball is better than some acknowledge, but he has a control problem that might hold him back from top end status. That’s sort of the story of the entire bullpen. Other than Nathan, this is a mix of guys with stuff to burn that haven’t been able to command that stuff too often. Rondon has the ability to be a top flight arm this year, but he could also meltdown. I guess that’s always true of anyone not named Rivera, but it’s important to consider.
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Let’s frame the whole thing like this. The talent is in place for this to be a nice bullpen, but that’s been true of most of the recent versions. This is their strategy. They load up on stuff and velocity, and then hope those guys keep it together. They’re running a high variance con, either they make out like bandits or they’re in jail by the end of act one. On the whole, swapping out Benoit and Smyly for Krol and Nathan is something of a wash, so comparing them to last year comes down to how much you buy a Joba resurgence, Al-Al’s health, and Rondon’s ability to harness his potential. From my perspective, they were a middle of the road bullpen and will be a middle of the road bullpen again in 2014.
The State Of The Tigers Infield
Continuing our series looking back and forward at various aspects of the Tigers roster, we’ll pick up today with the new Tigers infield. Earlier this month we covered the starting rotation and outfield. Since the infield is pretty much different at every spot, this one will take some time, which means the minor contributors like Santiago, Worth, Perez, Kelly, and Tuiasosopo are going to get a passing mention right here and then we’re going to forget that they exist. Same goes for Lombardozzi, but man is that a fun name to say out loud.
Miguel Cabrera
- Comparing His Season to Chris Davis
- On His Amazing Stat Line
- On His Amazing Pace
- How To Pitch To Him…Kind Of…
- 10 Facts About His Amazing 2013
Cabrera had a pretty impressive 2013 season, all of which is chronicled in the five preceding links. The theme was pretty much “ridiculous hitter to the point where being hurt for two months and being a bad defender only limited him 7.6 WAR.” His 192 wRC+ led the league and he won his second straight MVP (even if he wasn’t exactly the best candidate). We don’t need to spend much time on Cabs. He’s an all-time great hitter and he’ll be sliding back to first base for 2014 which should take some of the pressure off and hide his less than stellar glove.
The major projection systems are all in agreement on Cabrera as something between 5 and 7 wins for 2014, which would fit right in with expectations. He’ll be a great hitter with a slightly below average glove at first. He’s not likely to have another 7.5 WAR season, but that’s only because 2013 was his peak. One more great year should lock him in for the Hall of Fame, too, so we have that to look forward too.
Jhonny Peralta
Oh, Jhonny. He turned in a fantastic 2013 (3.6 WAR in 107 games) season until he had to sit out 50 games for his 2012 connection to Biogenesis. His impressive offense from the shortstop position mixed nicely with his ability to handle the position better than many think and gave the Tigers a big boost during the middle part of the season. Unfortunately, players who are that talented start asking for lots of money and he’ll be spending the next four seasons in St. Louis.
Omar Infante
Infante was another one of the Tigers who turned a great season into a big deal, this one with the Royals. Infante’s 3.1 WAR in 118 games was a big boost for the team and a very nice resume builder that would have been even nicer if not for a very late slide in Toronto that kept him out of action for several weeks. The year and a half reunion was nice, but we’ll have to settle for seeing him 18 times a year rather than 162 going forward.
Prince Fielder
Fielder had a tough year on and off the field and it ended with him heading to Texas in a deal for soon to be analyzed Ian Kinsler. Fielder was a solid hitter, but he’s paid to be a great one which had people on his back especially during the postseason. He’s a prime candidate to bounce back offensively, but his serious lack of value on the bases and with the glove makes the cost of a down year pretty big.
Jose Iglesias
Iggy joined the Tigers at the trade deadline to fill in for Peralta and to take the reins once he left during the offseason, which he did. Iglesias is an elite defensive shortstop, which means to be a very good player he only needs to cross a minimum offensive threshold. He did that in 2013, so even with a slight regression in 2014 with the bat, he should be a very good player up the middle and should make the pitching staff swoon.
All three projection systems have him for 1-2 WAR, but they are all very conservative with their defensive estimations. If they correctly assessed his offense and we project him to be a top of the line defender, he’s more like a 2-3 win player. Plus, stuff like this.
And this:
Ian Kinsler
Kinsler didn’t play for the Tigers in 2013, so who cares what his season was like, amirite? In all seriousness, Kinsler is a pretty good defender who runs the bases well and has a pretty good bat for second base. He’s getting older and some of those things are trending in the wrong direction, but he should be a nice contributor in 2014. All three projection systems tag him for about 3.5 wins for the Tigers, which would wipe away Infante’s departure without any problem.
Nick Castellanos
Nick is the big question mark for the Tigers infield going into the season. We’ve seen Cabrera for years and got to know Iglesias in 2013. Kinsler is a new Tiger, but his skill set is very well established. Castellanos is the unknown. A lot of people think his bat will be excellent at the big league level, but those things don’t always happen right away and his defense has never been a strength.
The projection systems range from 0.5 to 2.0 WAR for Nick based on a wide variety of offensive estimates. Based on what I’ve seen and heard on him, I’d call for something like .270/.320/.425, which is a little better than league average all the way around. Throw in some below average, but not terrible defense and you’ve probably got an average-ish player for 2014. That said, I think the bat will develop nicely and he could be a fringe all-star before all is said and done.
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I wrote earlier this year that the newly minted infield should add about one to six wins on the defensive side of things over the 2013 version, but that will come at a cost on the offensive side of things. Cabrera should be a little worse, Kinsler should be a wash, Iglesias will be significantly worse than Peralta, and Castellanos should be worse than Fielder. The Cabrera regression was going to happen anyway, so that’s not really fair to consider, but all in all, I’d say the overall infield is a win or two worse in 2014 than they were in 2013. The Tigers still have a nice collection of players, but it isn’t quite what it was a year ago. Some of that is unavoidable, but some of it wasn’t. Hopefully, they’ll still be able to take the division without too much trouble.
Tigers Settle With Everyone But Avila
Dave Dombrowski doesn’t go to arbitration. He just doesn’t. On Friday the Tigers came to terms with five players ahead of the arbitration filing deadline, leaving only Alex Avila without a settlement. Scherzer, Porcello, Jackson, Dirks, and Alburquerque all inked deals to avoid going to an actual hearing.
The Scherzer deal is the headline story, as the Tigers put a $15.5 million bow on his first six years of service. The Tigers will talk extension with Max, but if something doesn’t happen soon he’ll likely dip his toe in the free agent market and think about topping the Zack Greinke deal from a season ago. With Kershaw locked up for at least five years, Scherzer will be the best pitcher on next year’s market and that should make him an embarrassingly rich man. Earlier this offseason, I suggested the Tigers ride out his final year and let him walk. So far, that’s what’s happening.
Porcello will make $8.5 million in 2014 in his third arbitration season, but he has one more coming thanks to his Super Two status. We’re big Porcello fans at New English D and have been banging the extension drum loudly for Porcello all season long. A five year, $60 million sounds reasonable, yet too good for Porcello to ignore, even if Jon Heyman is completely clueless about what good starting pitching costs these days.
Jackson grabbed $6 million in his second arbitration season and is another guy who might be worth locking up long term, especially coming off a year that was a step back from 2012. Lock him in before he has another great year and you’ll be pleased that you did. Dirks ($1.625M) and Alburquerque ($837,500) were first timers and were paid as such.
The interesting case is Avila for a couple of reasons. First, the Tigers haven’t been to an arbitration hearing during Dombrowski’s tenure and they are reasonably close to one with the Assistant GM’s son. That’s fun! But also, they are pretty far apart ($3.25M and $5.35M). If the Tigers actually take this to trial, they’ll probably win, but it should be worth it to them to add a little on to their offer and avoid the headache. Avila is a very solid defender with the ability to be great at the dish, but his early 2013 struggles will certainly depress the dollar amount for which he can ask. He hit well down the stretch and I like him to contribute in 2014, but combine his health issues with some inconsistency at the plate and $5.35 million just isn’t happening.
After these settlements, the Tigers are right around $140 million before getting to Avila and the league minimum players. Last year, they had a payroll of $148 million, so the 2014 version figures to be their highest payroll yet. Hey, at least there was sort of real baseball news today!
New English D 