Nobody likes bullpens. Even teams with objectively good bullpens hate their bullpens. Pretty much every reliever is a failed starter and the bullpen only shows up when the starter has gotten tired or started to fail. The bullpen is the cleanup crew and sometimes they make the place messier.

You also can’t really predict bullpens. Reliever performance varies so much from year to year outside of the very elite arms that the difference between pretty good and pretty bad usually comes from nowhere. With that said, I’m going to offer a little tidbit about each reliever.

Joe Nathan

Be healthy.

Ian Krol

Find a way to neutralize righties.

Joba Chamberlain

Better command.

Al Alburquerque

Be healthy.

Bruce Rondon

Command the breaking ball.

Phil Coke

Better command, don’t pitch against guys who stand in the right handed box.

Luke Putkonen

Trick them into letting you pitch in non-blowouts, you’re pretty okay!

I don’t mean for this to be a blow off post, but I felt like I had to write it to complete the series. I don’t really have a lot to say about the bullpen other than that they could be really good if everyone meets their potential and really bad if everyone finds their realistic floor. There is talent, but there might not be performance. It’s a tough thing to predict. We can analyze when they start playing games, but for now, you just kind of wait.

If this was 1998, we’d have referred to the 2013 rotation as “da bomb.” They were simply that good. Historically good, if you like stats like FIP, which we do at New English D. The Tigers were one of the best three rotations ever if you look at park and league adjusted FIP, which is pretty freaking amazing. They’ll be short one Doug Fister and  Sanchez and Scherzer probably won’t repeat their career best marks, but Verlander could easily “rebound” and Porcello and Smyly should both be league average or better.

Even if it’s not the 2013 Tigers, the 2014 rotation is going to be very good. The difference, leaving aside health, will be between really good and great.

Justin Verlander

Verlander’s problem during the middle part of last year was release point. It was a mess, and then it wasn’t, and he went back to be being JUSTIN VERLANDER for the final nine starts of the season. The key for him is avoiding those bad habits. If you see the sharp bite on the breaking ball early and he’s commanding the fastball, expect another Cy Young caliber season. If he’s in and out with his command and not generating the necessary spin on the hook, we might be in for another pathetic 5 win season.

Max Scherzer

For Scherzer, it’s always about the delivery. In June of 2012, he finally straightened things out and caught fire. He hasn’t looked back and is finally making good on his promise. He has the gas and the secondary offerings. If he finds a groove with his motion, there isn’t much that will keep him from a great year. That said, don’t expect a Cy Young. Even if he has a very strong season, simple regression to the mean will likely bring him back to the pack. Oh no, another 5 win pitcher…

Anibal Sanchez

Sanchez was awesome in 2013 and the only thing that kept him from winning the Cy Young was a brief DL stint that held down his inning total. No one in the AL prevented runs better than Sanchez and no one had better fielding independent numbers. He was awesome. The key? It was the ability to generate swinging strikes on his changeup. Watch for that early. If he can make that pitch work again in 2014, it might be his turn to claim the highest pitching honor in the game.

Rick Porcello

Fun fact: New English D’s first big breakout was this post about Rick Porcello last June. We’ve been driving the Porcello bandwagon for quite some time, and there’s no stopping us now. The key last year, and looking ahead to 2014, was and will be his ability to generate strikeouts. He’s never allowed many walks and his ground ball numbers are above suspicion, but maintaining the spike in strikeouts is key. He made better use of his changeup and worked in a new curveball to help against lefties and added velocity when he needed to. If that’s happening again, and he can avoid the Angels, expect big things.

Drew Smyly

Smyly’s transitioning back to the rotation after a year in the pen working as the Tigers biggest weapon. He doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he hides the ball well and makes good use of the arsenal he does have. For him, I’m looking at durability and fatigue, which is a very difficult thing to judge out of the gate. He’s never pitched a full season at any level and for the Tigers to rival the previous version of themselves, they’ll need Smyly to give them 180 innings. Perhaps an indicator we could use will be how his command and stuff look late in those early April games. If he has what it takes to stay on the mound, he could make losing Fister a little less painful.

And now for the sexiest aspect of any baseball team; the bench. The collection of players not good enough to start, but not so bad that you want to cut them loose. Some bench players are prospects doing the apprentice thing, some are veterans trying to hang on, and some are players with a certain set of skills that makes them useful in only certain situations. Since the Tigers are going to work a platoon in left, we’ve already covered outfielder number four, meaning that this is an entire post devoted to three likely members of the Tigers bench, and Alex Avila because otherwise no one would want to read this.

Alex Avila

Avila’s key is always going to be his health. Can he stay on the field in a useful form? But that’s not interesting. Don’t get hurt is everyone’s first priority. For Avila, the key with respect to his performance is if he can maintain that short, left-centerfield gap swing. When he goes through rough stretches, his swing gets long, he gets pull happy, and everything seems to be a lazy fly ball to right field. So if he’s short to the ball and driving it up the alley, it’s going to be a good year.

Bryan Holaday

A backup catcher is a backup catcher. You’re going to see them once a week and if you see them anymore you’re in trouble. Holaday is a solid defender with the ability to put the ball in play, but he’s nothing special. Maybe he has a future as a fringe MLB regular, but the key for him is to do anything at the plate. A couple extra base hits, a couple walks, and a non-terrible average. It’s all you ask.

Don Kelly

It’s no secret that this is a pro-Kelly website. He’s a dandy utility man who can take a walk and can hit for a little power, while also being the nicest dude in the world. He doesn’t have to do much to handle his role, but the key, if you could call it that, will be to provide enough value with the bat that he can serve as a legitimate backup rather than as the 25th man. He was on it early in 2013 and faded a little. So look for decent compared to passable.

Steve Lombardozzi

He’s basically another Don Kelly, but he’s going to be called upon to play shortstop despite almost no experience there. Can he handle the position? That’s the key. If he can’t, the team is going to have to rethink the roster. [Also, I am very excited to see how my mother pronounces his name.]

A few days ago, I made the point that the Tigers outfield is more or less going to be about as good as it was last season. The Tigers infield might end up that way, but it’s an entirely different arrangement of players. My baseline estimate is that the unit will be about 10 to 60 runs better (1-6 wins) defensively, but that some of that value will be lost with a little less offensive oomph.

Over the winter, we looked at the state of the infield, but now it’s time to take a look at the most important thing to watch for with respect to each member of the group. Note: The bench will have its own post.

Miguel Cabrera

Um…health? He’s not a good defender or fast runner, but he’s moving back to a position for which he is more suited and he’s definitely established himself as the best hitter of the moment. He showed some signs of physical wear last season, and a recurrence of that would be the only thing to keep him from the top of most of the leaderboards. So yeah…what can you even say about Cabrera?

Ian Kinsler

Kinsler’s defensive is a little unsettled. It’s somewhere in between average to above average based on the tendency to mishandle the baseball on semi-routine plays. He’s a good runner and has solid range, so the question for Kinsler is going to be how he handles the transition to Comerica Park. When we evaluate players, we control for park effects, but there are some people who believe that Kinsler’s swing is specifically designed for Arlington’s dimensions and climate. We know that Kinsler is aging and won’t be a 5-7 win player like he was during his peak, but if the park factor isn’t a big issue, he’s going to be a very solid player for the Tigers. Personally, I’m not worried about the transition, but that’s probably the thing to watch here.

Jose Iglesias

Is he going to be an average player or a star? That question is going to be answered based on how well he can get on base. Most scouts and analysts see Iggy as a guy who can muster a .300 wOBA, but in 382 PA in 2013 it was all the way up at .327 thanks to a .356 BABIP. That’s the thing. Is he someone who can sustain an above average, line drive single kind of BABIP? He doesn’t walk much or hit for power (and he didn’t do that either in 2013), so his offensive value is based on the base hit. If he can’t keep that up, he’s a 2 win player. If he can, we might be looking at 3-4 wins thanks to that elite glove. So what we’ll be watching is how Iglesias responds to his first full season and how his approach looks and contact adapts to pitchers who learn more about him. We’ll also have to keep an eye on his shin splints, but those seem to be healing up right now.

Nick Castellanos

Castellanos has been the Tigers top position playing prospect for several years and look excellent in High A in 2012 and was one of the better hitters in AAA in 2013 despite being one of the youngest players at the level. He’s back at his more natural position, third base, but there are a lot of question. This series focuses on one key thing to watch, but I’ll give you two.

First, how does Nick’s footwork progress over the course of the season. From what I’ve seen and heard, his troubles on defense come from lateral movement rather than his hands or arm. He’s not going to be Longoria or Beltre, but if he can be just a few runs worse than average, things will be just fine. On offensive, you want to watch the whole production, but I’ll be curious to see how he adapts to better breaking stuff at the big league level. Nick has mastered the minor leagues, and has the tools to succeed in the show, but he’s had some swing and miss issues in his career and the degree to which he can handle the slider will say a lot about his 2014 impact.