How Was The Game? (June 6, 2013)
A cleaner affair.
Tigers 5, Rays 2
After struggling on the last trip, the Tigers looked poised for a good homestand after a big win against the Rays on Tuesday, but yesterday’s loss dampened those hopes for some. Max Scherzer (8-0, 77 IP, 3.24 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 3.0 WAR) was undeterred, however, and mowed down the Rays hitters across 7 innings, allowing 4 hits and 1 run while getting 9 K and 2 BB to make the angles on these graphs even steeper:
But also of note is this graph, which shows that Max Scherzer did not miss the strikezone inside once during this start. Not once:
The bats stayed quiet early, but awoke in the later innings, scoring in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th innings led by big days from the 3-6 hitters, especially Victor Martinez, who drove in 3 runs on a single and a bomb. Benoit and Valverde meandered through the 8th and 9th innings, allowing a run, and gave the Tigers their first series victory since they beat the Twins on the last homestand. The Indians come to town for a weekend series and the Tigers will look to add some separation in the standings with Justin Verlander (7-4, 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.4 WAR) on the bump for game one.
The Moment: Don Kelly makes a diving catch in the 4th (see below)
The Morning Edition (June 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners and White Sox take a 0-0 game into the 14th, each score 5, but the Sox win it in 16
- CarGo hits 3 HR and Tulo hits 2 HR as the Rockies smash the Reds
- Byrd homers twice to back a solid outing by Gee over the Nats
- Dickey helps his own cause at the plate and nearly misses a CGSO
- Hamels finally looks like Hamels, striking out 11 Marlins
- Sabathia gives up 4, but gets the CG win against the Indians
- Teheran nearly no-hits the Pirates
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Holland duel in Boston (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Dbacks, looks to earn Appointment Television title in the process (8p Eastern)
- Greinke tries to straighten out against the Braves (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will populate the top picks in today’s draft?
While there is plenty of exciting baseball on today, the MLB Draft will take center stage for most die hard fans. Unlike the NFL Draft, the MLB version doesn’t turn itself into an entire season in and of itself, but rather calls attention to itself in more subtle and sophisticated ways. Only a handful of mock drafts are done and only the first two rounds get airtime. A few names to know for the first pick are Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Kris Bryant, and Colin Moran, but it still remains unclear as to who the Astros will take first overall. I’m hoping for the Tar Heel, Moran, not because he’s the best, but because I’m a grad student at UNC and am hoping he drops several hundred dollars on his way back from signing the contract. If you’re new to the process, the key difference between the MLB Draft and others is that MLB teams are always drafting the best player available and do not focus on their current positional needs. NFL picks are expected to contribute right away, but MLB picks go through a seasoning process. For example, the Tigers will take a 3B with their pick if he’s the best player left even though they have a big of a logjam at the position. If you’re looking for a primer on the top picks, I suggest Mark Anderson’s work at BPN:
Stat of the Week: Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)
Generally, I’ve been a little light on “weekly” updates to this feature, but I generally write at least one statistically informative post a week, even if it doesn’t actually follow the mold I’ve laid out. Today, I’ll try to write that wrong with an introduction to the very useful Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP).
You may recall my introduction to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) some months ago and my frequent use of the metric on the site. You can read my introduction to FIP or Fangraphs’ primer to catch up, but I’ll outline the basic concept because it carries over.
We use FIP because ERA is not a reflection of a pitcher’s individual performance because he cannot control what his defense does once the ball is put in play. Two pitchers who are carbon copies of each other will perform differently if you put them in front of the Dbacks defense (currently the league’s best) and the Angels defense (one of the league’s worst so far) despite throwing identical pitches to identical hitters. ERA is a reflection of the team as a whole, not just the pitcher.
In steps FIP or a class of numbers coming from this idea, to measure a pitcher’s performance based only on what we know he can control. FIP takes strikeouts, walks, and homeruns and uses historic run values to calculate a number on the same scale as ERA so that you can see which pitchers are succeeding in the areas of the game they can control. Generally speaking, defense evens out over a long enough period and ERA, FIP, and our new friend xFIP will converge toward each other.
The FIP formula looks like this:
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
So what exactly is xFIP? xFIP, as you can read about on Fangraphs, takes this one more step. xFIP is the same as FIP except it normalizes HR/FB rate to give you a number that better predicts future performance.
It’s actually pretty simple, just stay with me. Generally speaking, we’ve found that the percentage of a pitcher’s flyballs that are hit for homeruns will converge toward about 10% and that large variations from that number are not sustainable. If you allow more flyballs, you’ll allow more homeruns, and that will cost you in FIP and xFIP, but if you’re allowing half of your flyballs to go for homeruns, it’s likely that won’t happen for very long.
So xFIP looks like this:
xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
As you can see, it’s the same formula, but it takes your flyball rate and multiplies that by the league average HR/FB rate to get a more predictive version of your HR rate going forward. xFIP is one of the best indicators of future performance we have and it is very useful in evaluating which pitchers are getting lucky and which pitcher’s are actually performing in line with their skills.
If we scan the Tigers 2013 leaderboard right now (digits truncated), you can get a sense of how this works. As expected, all of the Tigers have better FIP than their ERA because they play in front of a poor defense, but all of their xFIP are slightly higher than their FIP (except for Porcello) because they are allowing a lower than average HR/FB rate. Porcello, on the other hand, has very unlucky 21% HR/FB rate, so his xFIP is better than his FIP. Again, xFIP correlates better with future performance than almost any other ERA estimator.
Personally, I like to look at FIP to see how a pitcher is doing and use xFIP to see how fluke-y his homerun rate is. They’re both good metrics and they are both better indicators of individual performance than ERA.
Want to learn about a statistic? Request one for the next edition in the comments section or on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44. If you’re looking to catch up on sabermetrics, check out New English D’s posts on FIP, WAR, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO.
How Was The Game? (June 5, 2013)
A gem, wasted.
Rays 3, Tigers 0
When Doug Fister (5-3, 77 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 2.5 WAR) takes the hill, you’re usually treated to a fast moving, efficient performance and today was an exceptional lesson in said qualities. Fister cruised through the first 7 innings in just 72 pitches causing the present author to remark:
and
Fister would finish the game with a marvelous 8.1 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 walks, and 4 strikeouts after surrendering all three runs on three hits, a sac fly, and a wild pitch in the 9th. That performance on most days will bring you an easy victory, but Mr. Fister had to sweat as his counterpart was also quite good. Cobb kept the Tigers at bay over 7.2 and got help from his bullpen to blank the Tigers. Fister succeeded with his usually excellent command and excellent separation among his four pitches, the latter is illustrated here:
With the loss, the Tigers fall to 31-26 and will try to take the series with the Rays tomorrow afternoon with Max Scherzer (7-0, 76.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.6 WAR) on the hill.
The Moment: Doug Fister doing anything.
The Morning Edition (June 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Boston beats Texas 17-5, but David Murphy (the OF) pitches a scoreless inning
- The Braves walk off in extras against the Pirates
- Zimmermann is sharp and the Nats rally in the 9th to win
- Mayberry Jr. walks off in grand style against the Fish
- Both Wacha and Skaggs struggle as the Cards and Dbacks go down to the wire
- The Mariners bounce Peavy early
What I’m Watching Today:
- Turner and Hamels at Citizens’ Bank (1p Eastern)
- Garza faces the Angels (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Padres at home (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we make of last night’s steroid story?
The big story last night was that MLB has acquired the cooperation of fake doctor/steroid peddler Tony Bosch and will attempt to use his testimony to suspend up to 20 MLB players who appear on documents relating to Bosch’s Miami clinic, including Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun.
Now I’m not condoning cheating, but I do question the way this investigation is being handled. I think a failed test that holds up to the scrutiny of the review process should land players on the suspended list, but the evidence that is publicly available on this clinic is not very convincing. If MLB is going to base suspensions on Bosch’s word and some hand written notes, that isn’t okay. Most of these players haven’t failed a test and the ones who have failed a test have already served a suspension. I’m all for strict testing and harsh punishments, but I don’t think the evidence is very compelling. Additionally, this is not really news. MLB has been trying to suspend these guys from the start. The only new information is that Bosch is now cooperating, but the headlines focused on the desire to suspend. This is definitely a case of the media (ESPN in particular) making more out of a story than they should. A big steroid suspension is big news, but that isn’t what we got last night. We got “MLB is working to suspend them.” Sorry guys, wake me when something is happening. Let’s focus on the MLB draft and ASG and regular season until something actually happens.
Dynamic Standings Projection (June 5, 2013)
In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the June 4 games.
How Was The Game? (June 4, 2013)
Just what the doctor ordered.
Tigers 10, Rays 1
After a road trip to forget, the Tigers returned to Comerica Park and enjoyed some home-cooking at the expense of the Rays’ interim ace Matt Moore. Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 78 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 3.4 WAR) took care of business on the mound over 7 innings of 1 run, 9 K baseball and got out of the way for the offense to do their thing. And do their thing they did. They got 4 in the 2nd from Tuiasosopo, Infante, and Fielder RBI hits and 2 in the 3rd from a Garcia hit and Infante walk. For good measure, the tacked on runs in the 5th, 6th, and 8th to put this one out of reach and hopefully started a new winning streak. With the win, they improve to 31-25 and will look to take the series tomorrow behind Doug Fister (5-2, 68.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.2 WAR).
The Moment: Prince singles in a pair in the 2nd.
The Morning Edition (June 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Molina and Beltran homer to back Lynn against the Snakes
- Medlen shines as Burnett stumbles
- Arroyo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rox
- Kendrick hits a 3B and goes the distance to beat the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Mets in DC (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Sanchez in Detroit (7p Eastern)
- Skaggs and Wacha make prospect hounds drool in STL (8p Eastern)
- Peavy and Felix out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should the All-Star Game be?
Someone on Twitter asked Keith Law if Matt Carpenter should be an All-Star, which Law disagreed with because
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/341747971655872512
I’m curious what other people think, but I like when the All-Star game features a mix of star players and lesser known guys having good opening months. I understand his argument is that MLB wants to showcase the stars to expand the popularity of the sport, but I think national media events should be a time for the sport to turn its unsung players into stars. I don’t like when ESPN and Fox only talk about Jeter and Sabathia and Big Papi. National forums should be a chance to put guys like Matt Carpenter (2.5 WAR) and Josh Donaldson (2.6 WAR) on display. “Hey look, here are some guys you might not get a chance to see a lot who are playing great!” I like that aspect of it. The game will have Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, but I think it should also have the unknowns because it should be a game for die hard fans as well as casual fans who often use the word “boring” to describe baseball.
Victor Martinez Shouldn’t Play Vegas
I’m sure most Tigers fans are aware that Victor Martinez’s number this year aren’t very good. He’s had a few productive games, but on the whole they don’t look great. He’s hitting .230/.280/.319 good for 59 wRC+ in 225 PA. I don’t have to tell you that isn’t enough from a full time DH.
But there is more to the story than that. I know this is going to sound like an excuse, but Victor Martinez has been terribly unlucky. I’m serious, I have data to prove it. This isn’t just an eyeball test, it’s a real thing. I’ll show you.
First of all, the walk rate is almost identical to his strong ’11 season and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strikezone so far this season (26.8% versus 30.2%). So it’s not like he’s chasing bad pitches or anything. There are two explanations. First, he’s getting unlucky. Second, he’s not hitting the ball with as much authority as he used to.
I’m going to argue this is mostly about luck, but I’ll give some credence to the type of contact he is making. He is hitting fewer line drives this year in favor of more flyballs, which is generally bad for your production, but it’s not dramatic enough that you would expect someone to lose .100 off their batting average. His 2013 ratios are very similar to his 2007 ratios and in that season he hit .301/.374/.505.
So yes, the trajectory of the ball is slightly off his 2011 numbers, but he’s been successful with the 2013 numbers before. He’s not walking less. He’s not chasing bad pitches. This is a story about bad luck.
A number of people have commented, myself included, that Victor is hitting a lot of balls hard that are turning into outs. That’s true. ESPN Stats and Info tracks hard hit balls (balls can be soft, medium, or hard) and ESPN Stats and Info Researcher and former podcast standout Mark Simon often posts the statistic on Twitter. Here is his most recent update (June 3):
As you can see, Martinez is 6th in MLB with 24.4% of his PA ending in a hard his ball. The average MLBer hits 17% hard hit balls. That’s 7% better than league average, but if you look at his batting average, it doesn’t reflect that. You have to drop pretty far down the list to find someone with a lower average than Martinez (Ruggiano at 22). In other words, it’s very rare to have someone hit the ball hard this often without getting better results. How rare? I asked Simon and this is what he said:
The picture he posted in accordance with that tweet indicates that all but one of Martinez’s hard hit balls at home have turned into outs:
So what you can see here is that your eyes aren’t deceiving you. Victor Martinez is hitting the ball hard and has nothing to show for it. He’s been unlucky in a very uncommon way. We should expect this luck to even out over the course of the season and his hard hit balls will start to fall for hits. Everyone above him on that list is crushing the ball and Martinez has been at the top of this list all season long.
You may look at his .230 batting average and say he’s having a bad year. That’s only partially right. The results have been bad, but based on everything I’m looking at here, the process has been good. And good process will yield good results, even if it hasn’t over the first third of the season.
That said, I still wouldn’t advise Victor Martinez spend any time in Vegas, just in case he’s pissed off the God’s of probability.
Editor’s Note: A follow up piece on the same subject can be found here.
The Morning Edition (June 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jeremy Bonderman’s return doesn’t go well, gives up 7 ER in 4.2 to the Twins
- The Angels lose their 3rd straight to the Astros fall to 25-32
- Darvish narrowly outduels Santana, but has to sweat as his bullpen nearly costs them
- The Dbacks back Corbin’s 9th W
- Lee Ks 11 in 7.2 innings to beat the Crew
- Dusty waits to use his closer and it costs him a win against the Pirates
- The Fish hit Harvey and sweep the Mets
- The Rays rough up the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Masterson vs Pettitte in NY (7p Eastern)
- Burnett and Medlen face off in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Under the radar Cahill and Lynn draw each other at Busch (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Puig do in his MLB debut?
If you follow me on Twitter or were an early regular at New English D, you know I was very invested in Jeremy Bonderman’s comeback today. It didn’t go well. Because the Tigers were in Baltimore I had to have the Tigers on the radio, which gave me a chance to watch Bonderman on television. He had a fastball from 89-92 and a good slider at times, and he struck out the first batter he faced and delivered a 1-2-3 first inning. If you followed his career as a Tiger, you know the first inning gave him nightmares. But from there it unraveled as he allowed 3 runs in the 2nd and 2 runs in each of the 4th and 5th innings before being removed from the game. He struck out just one batter. He actually kept the ball down and had decent movement on his pitches, but without a good offspeed pitch, it’s hard to be successful as a starter if you don’t have a big fastball. It sounds like he’ll get another shot in five days, but if nothing else, he made it back to the big leagues. I’ll always be rooting for him even if he doesn’t have much left. He has something left.
New English D 