Revisiting The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
We’ve already covered the catchers, so let’s move on to first base. Here’s The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013. Numbers reflect start of play on July 6.
56. Mark Teixeira, Yankees (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: -0.2)
Teixeira was more hurt than I knew when I wrote the original list. Nothing you can do about a guy who only plays 15 games during a season due to injury. MISS
49. Albert Pujols, Angels (Preseason Rank: 2, 2013 WAR: -0.1)
Albert Pujols stated slow last season and came on strong in the second half. I’m not sure if that’s going to happen again or if his foot and ankle injury will improve enough that he can contribute the way he should. Granted, I knew Pujols was on the wrong side of 30 when I wrote the list, so maybe I should have been more cautious about his decline, but it’s safe to say one shouldn’t assume an all-time great player will simply cease being valuable out of nowhere. He’s producing at league average with a 99 wRC+ from a position that demands offense and is below average on defense and on the bases. Pujols likely won’t be this bad all season, but there is no way he can recover enough to save the prediction. MISS
31. Adam LaRoche, Nationals (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
He’s lost some power from his career year in 2012, but the OBP is nearly identical. LaRoche was my bold, wild card type pick, so I’m fine with being off the mark a bit. He’s defense rates below average this year despite being good each of the last three seasons. I assume that will turn around because 1B defensive skills shouldn’t deteriorate that quickly, so he’s probably more of a 2.5 WAR player than a 3.5 WAR player and that’s not a huge whiff. He’s probably a 10-13 1B for the whole season, so this is a miss, but not a huge one. MISS
30. Prince Fielder, Tigers (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
Fielder, currently at 123 wRC+, is performing well on offensive relative to league average, but not compared to the bar he set for himself. At this pace, he’s like to finish near the 8-10 mark, but he could easily snap out of it and start hitting for more power at any moment. There’s nothing physically wrong with him and he’s had the occasional season in his career that was just pretty good instead of great at the plate, so he could easily slug .550 the rest of the way and no one would find it strange. He’s costly on defense, but that’s a constant. He’s a top 9 1B on offense right now, but not comfortably enough to make up for his defense. MISS
15. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Despite some recent slumping Rizzo is only a bit off the pace he set in 2012 on which I based my evaluation. He’s 0.3 WAR back of 8th place, so I’m feeling pretty good right now. He’s playing strong defense and has a 110 wRC+. With a little better second half, he’s dead on. HIT
12. Freddie Freeman, Braves (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.4)
Freeman spent 15 days on the DL early in the season, but while he’s been on the field during the 70+ other games, he’s been right on pace for 5th. He’s the 6th best 1B by wRC+ and is hovering just below average on defense. Assuming he’s healthy and plays 140 games or so this season, he’s perfectly on track for the middle of the top 9. HIT
10. Allen Craig, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 1.5 WAR)
Craig is having essentially the exact season I’d have expected from him. In the initial ranking I said he was a phenomenal hitter (he’s 5th in wRC+) and nothing special with the glove (-2.2 UZR). His only issue would be health, which hasn’t bitten him yet and is just 0.1 WAR away from 7th on the list. If he doesn’t miss much time, this one looks great. HIT
9. Eric Hosmer, Royals (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 1.5)
Ha! Nailed it. He started a bit slow but things are picking up nicely and he has added value with the glove too. I’m a fan of his skills and think he can be a great player despite 2012’s disappointment. I’m not going to say much more and just bask in this precisely accurate ranking while it lasts. HIT
8. Brandon Belt, Giants (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR:1.6)
I like Belt, but the Giants have been screwing with his swing and playing time so much over the years it’s hard to feel good about any sort of prediction. He’s a patient hitter with a solid glove and I like him a lot as a player, I just didn’t think it was a good idea to rank him in the top 9 because I couldn’t predict the playing time. MISS
7. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Someone asked about him when I posted the original piece and I said he’d have been 10 or 11 for me, so finding him at 7, just ahead of that spot isn’t surprising. He’s hitting for a little more power than I thought, but other than that is right on track for the season I thought he’d have. HIT
6. Mark Trumbo, Angels (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Trumbo wasn’t ranked in the preseason because I expected him to get most of his reps at DH. Nothing you can really do about that one, but he’s a lowish OBP, high power guy who tends to run hot and cold. He’s actually be solid with the glove in Pujols’ stead, so I’m comfortable expecting him to finish near the back half of the list. PUSH
5. James Loney, Rays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.3)
I saw this coming. Not this exactly, but I did. Go to #30 on this list of bold predictions and you’ll see. I didn’t think he’d be a top 9 guy, but I’m taking credit for this because so few people had good things to say abut Loney going into the year. He’s always been a guy who could play defense and hit for average, but he was caught in between while looking to add power in LA, so arriving in Tampa and being told not to worry about it seems to have helped. HIT.
4. Edwin Encarnacion, Jays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.5)
I had Encarnacion figured in for a lot of games at DH, which has sort of happened. 45 games at 1B, 29 at DH, 10 at 3B so I didn’t expect him to add as much value because of the DH positional adjustment in WAR. I expected him to mash, but not to add this kind of overall value. I’m calling it a push because it was more of a playing time mistake than a production one. PUSH
3. Joey Votto, Reds (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Joey Votto is great and I said he would be great. His defensive rating is below average, which I don’t think will continue and that is the only think keeping him from another MVP type season. Votto is right on track for the 6.5-7.5 WAR season that I figured for him. HIT
2. Paul Goldschmidt, Dbacks (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Goldy was someone I agonized over and left him off with A-Gon right on the cusp. He’s been good enough to make that prediction a miss, but I do want to make clear I liked him a lot coming in, just not quite as much as I should have. He has amazingly gotten better from year to year across the board since coming to the big leagues and is very much in the MVP conversation with Votto and several other guys who will appear on other lists. I’m a Goldy fan and regret not putting him on the preseason list. MISS
1. Chris Davis, Orioles (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 4.6)
Yeah, didn’t see this coming. No one did. Not even Chris Davis’ mother expected him to elevated his game to near-Cabreraian levels. He’s mashing and is right in the thick of the AL MVP race. He’s not this good, but he’s also clearly good enough to hang on this list the rest of the way and I wouldn’t have put him in the top 12. Easily a miss and pretty darn impressive. I’m not buying him to finish #1, but he’s earned it for now. MISS
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Morning Edition (July 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- MLB All-Star Game participants announced, see below for commentary
- Sale goes 7, gives up 2 ER, 1 BB, and Ks 9…loses again….
- Cardinals walk off on the Fish
- Santana and Parker both solid, but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Royals
- Dickey goes deep into the game, but surrenders 6 runs as the Twins beat the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kuroda goes against the O’s (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg toes the slab in DC (1p Eastern)
- Danks and Price hook up in Tampa (130p Eastern)
- Fernandez takes on the Cardinals (2p Eastern)
- Burnett comes off the DL to face the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Kershaw faces the Giants (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do the All-Star rosters look?
So let me break the ASG rosters down in a very simple way. I’m only going to point out players who got left off criminally and players who probably shouldn’t be on the team. As usual, most of the roster is right, and it’s messed up at the margins. Here are my AL and NL picks and here are the full rosters.
Players Who Should Be on the Rosters:
- Evan Longoria is 6th in MLB in position player WAR, the only AL reserve who could even reasonably be considered more deserving than Longoria is Machado. It’s a crime that Longo isn’t in the game.
- Josh Donaldson is 9th in WAR and is on the outside looking in because you can’t have a million 3B on your team. It’s understandable that one of these guys got left off, it’s unacceptable that both didn’t make it. Either could go as a DH, or replace one of the catching backups or one of the 3 backup 2B.
- Honorable mention to Kyle Seager, because he belongs, but 3B is too deep to make much of a case.
- Ellsbury and Gardner are also better choices than Hunter and Cruz, but it’s less egregious.
- Marte and Choo probably belong over Dom Brown
- Derek Holland is 4th in MLB in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster. Not much justification for that.
- Homer Bailey is 5th in the NL in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster, hard to buy Locke, Wood, and Bumgarner over him
Players Who Shouldn’t Be on the Roster
- I know he was voted by the fans, so it’s a popularity thing, but Adam Jones has very little business being in the game over some of the guys who missed.
- Bartolo Colon probably doesn’t need to be on the roster, but he has 11 wins, and those are shiny. His A’s teammate Josh Donaldson should get to go in his place even if they play different positions
- Prince Fielder really shouldn’t be an All-Star, but he’s in because he’s well known, has RBI, and it is a pretty down year for 1B in the AL. Longoria or Donaldson really should go in his place
- I love Ben Zobrist, but he has to only be in the game over Longoria because he’s versatile and can fill in for injured guys. There is nothing else that justifies him being on the team over Longo
- Cruz and Hunter together make one good All-Star, but each on their own doesn’t do much for me. Not a huge error, but probably not deserving given who was left off
- Brandon Phillips should not be an All-Star this year. Fan vote, so can’t say too much.
- Dominic Brown is probably a no for me, but it’s not terrible.
I’m sure some of you disagree with these comments, but that’s the way this works. Undeserving players get picked because of name value or voters looking at the wrong numbers, but I stand by the ones about which I wrote most strongly. Longoria and Donaldson must be All-Stars. I don’t care who comes off as long as it isn’t Cabrera, Gomez, Trout, Davis, or Wright. Literally, 2 of the top 10 players in baseball aren’t going to the game. Come on guys.
The Morning Edition (July 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wells delivers a walk off single to back Nova’s CG, 11 K performance
- Milone goes 8.1 to beat the Royals
- Hellickson goes 7, Ks 9 as the Rays defeat the White Sox
- 7 shutout innings from Buerhle push the Jays past the Twins
- Liriano goes the distance as the Bucs top the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann welcomes the Friars to Nationals’ Park (4p Eastern)
- Bonderman and Latos (4p Eastern)
- Sale and Moore in Tampa (7p Eastern)
- Darvish versus the Astros, strikeout warning (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will get picked to the ASG today?
Yesterday we unveiled our 2013 AL All-Stars and the NL team is coming today at 4pm. It’s always a controversial list, but I feel good about it. You can also catch up on our series chronicling the problems with the wins statistic, starting with great low wins seasons, showing that wins don’t even out over the course of a career, and later today we’re breaking down The Nine Worst 20 Win season in MLB history. Needless to say, it’s a controversial type week at New English D, but we’re all for it. Let’s talk baseball!
Picking the American League All-Stars
With the All-Star rosters looming ahead this weekend, New English D weighs into the fray with these picks. We’ll cover the NL tomorrow. A few notes up front. First, I’ve conformed the roster size to the official requirements and have selected starters I feel are most deserving based on their 2013 seasons and have given no deference to the voting up through this point. My view is that the All-Star Game should showcase the game’s standout performers from the first half of 2013, not the best players over the last year or the best players by talent even if they haven’t performed. I think the game should highlight the players who play well, not the players MLB thinks are “marketable.” Every team is represented and I’ve given a list of players who are the first replacements for injuries and such. Clay Buchholz would have been selected, as noted, but is currently injured. As you know, this site appreciates advanced statistics, so should you choose to comment on these selections, please do so without using “RBI” or “Wins.”
Enjoy and feel free to criticize the 7 Tigers I put on the list. I can’t make a case that they aren’t deserving, even if you think I’m a homer.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION |
| Joe Mauer | Twins | C |
| Chris Davis | Orioles | 1B |
| Jason Kipnis | Indians | 2B |
| Jhonny Peralta | Tigers | SS |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 3B |
| Mike Trout | Angels | OF |
| Jose Bautista | Jays | OF |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox | OF |
| David Ortiz | Red Sox | DH |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | SP |
| Carlos Santana | Indians | C |
| Edwin Encarnacion | Jays | 1B |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 2B |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 2B |
| Jed Lowrie | Athletics | SS |
| Evan Longoria | Rays | 3B |
| Manny Machado | Orioles | 3B |
| Josh Donaldson | Athletics | 3B |
| Nate McClouth | Orioles | OF |
| Alex Gordon | Royals | OF |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | OF |
| Adam Lind | Jays | DH |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | SP |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | SP |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | SP |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | SP |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | SP |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | SP |
| Doug Fister | Tigers | SP |
| Bud Norris | Astros | SP |
| Brett Cecil | Jays | RP |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | RP |
| Drew Smyly | Tigers | RP |
| Jesse Crain | White Sox | RP |
| Clay Buchholz* | Red Sox | SP |
| FIRST REPLACEMENTS | ||
| Kyle Seager | Mariners | 3B |
| Omar Infante | Tigers | 2B |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels | 2B |
| Adrian Beltre | Rangers | 3B |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | SP |
| Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | RP |
| Joe Nathan | Rangers | RP |
| * injured |
The Morning Edition (July 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mets and Dbacks each score once in the 13th and 14th before the Snakes win it in 15
- Hamels looks great as he beats Cole and the Bucs
- The A’s takes the Cubs in a 1-0 pitchers’ duel
- Tampa beats the Astros in 11
- Shields struggles, but the Royals storm the Indians with 10 in the final 3 innings to win
- Quintana dominates, but Jones coughs it up for the Sox, only to walk off in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lee takes on the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler heads to Miller Park (8p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner gets the Cards (8p Eastern)
- Ryu and Cain out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will be named All-Stars as the voting closes last night at midnight?
The interesting one is going to be the AL 3B spot. Obviously, Cabrera is going in as the starter, but between the players and Leyland it’s hard to imagine more than 2 others getting in, three at most. Here are the candidates though:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
| Miguel Cabrera | 383 | 26 | 65 | 85 | 0.364 | 0.454 | 0.670 | 0.470 | 202 | 5.4 |
| Evan Longoria | 356 | 17 | 52 | 48 | 0.294 | 0.365 | 0.537 | 0.382 | 149 | 4.4 |
| Manny Machado | 392 | 6 | 53 | 42 | 0.319 | 0.349 | 0.481 | 0.359 | 125 | 4.2 |
| Josh Donaldson | 353 | 14 | 46 | 55 | 0.314 | 0.382 | 0.526 | 0.389 | 151 | 3.8 |
| Kyle Seager | 361 | 12 | 43 | 38 | 0.280 | 0.338 | 0.465 | 0.348 | 127 | 2.9 |
| Adrian Beltre | 354 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.494 | 0.358 | 121 | 2.2 |
Longoria and Machado are the most deserving overall, but Donaldson is the best overall hitter and no one really cares about defense when it comes to picking All-Stars. Plus Beltre has the name recognition and Seager should get some credit for being a great hitter on a terrible club. Third base in the AL is a deep spot. We’ll have more on the All-Star Selections as the happen.
The Morning Edition (July 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix and Holland hold both clubs to 2 runs, but the bullpens settle it in 10 on a Seager bomb
- Gomes walks off on the Padres
- Nolasco does well in front of the scouts, beats the Braves
- Norris pitches well in trade audition to beat the Rays
- CC goes 7 to beat the Twins
- Grilli gives up 2 runs, gets a save anyway because the save rule is silly
- Lohse twirls a gem to top the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Leake in Cinci (1p Eastern)
- Gerrit Cole Hamles matchup! (1p Eastern)
- Shields continues to get no help from his team (2p Eastern)
- Wainwright takes on the Angels (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s your take on the no-hitter war?
Brian Kenny, who we’re quite fond of at New English D, took to the airwaves and Twitter on Wednesday to mock the attention give to no-hitters because walks and hit batters are part of the game and that separating it into hits and other ways to get on base is misguided. While I understand the sentiment and am I big believing in walks as offensive weapons, there is a different argument that Kenny hasn’t responded to at this point. No hitters are not always great performances, I fully agree. A one hit shutout is better than a 5 walk no hitter, but no hitters in all their forms are much rarer that no walk games. Since 1916, there have been more than 9,000 CG with no BB or HBP, but less than 300 CG with no hits. Less than 30 with no baserunners, period. The point here is that one baserunner is one baserunner no matter how he gets on, but it is much rarer to allow no hits than no walks and that is something worth celebrating. Kenny is right that the mainstream press doesn’t cover one hitters appropriately compared to no hitters with several walks, but I think the problem is in the other direction. Kenny thinks no-hitters are no big deal when the pitcher walks a couple guys, but I think we just don’t give enough credit to 1 and 2 hitters. Here at New English D, we make an attempt to highlight all great pitching performances, but do value the no hitter because the no hitter is rare and it’s quirky. After all, baseball is fun. I don’t usually disagree with Kenny, but on this issue I do.
The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
- Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
- Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
- Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
- Darvish beats Latos
- The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
- Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
- Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
- Sox walk off on the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s a realistic season for Puig?
The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.
The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
- Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
- Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
- Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
- Garza dominates the Brewers
- Kluber gets shelled
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
- James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
- Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this finally the year for the Pirates?
As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.
The Morning Edition (June 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marcum goes 8 scoreless to beat the Sox
- Gordon walks off on the Braves
- Kazmir flirts with a no-hitter, but it took a Johnson blown save to win it
- Zimmermann leads the Nats over the Dbacks
- Lackey dominates the Rockies
- Felix strikes out 11, gives up 2 ER, somehow doesn’t win…
- AJ Griffin CGSO
- Dickey CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Corbin and Strasburg in DC (4p Eastern)
- NERD favorite Kluber in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- Greinke faces the Phillies, hopes not to get in a fight (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Didn’t 2B used to be a glove first position?
We live in a world in which Robinson Cano is 5th among 2B in WAR this season. Carpenter and Kipnis are taking the league by storm and Pedroia and Kendrick are ahead of him too. Cano is 7th among qualifiers in wRC+ for 2B. When did this happen? I remember just a couple seasons back you had like two second basemen who could hit and everyone else was Ramon Santiago. The game is changing, it’s pretty cool. Here’s Dave Cameron writing on a similar subject a little ways back.
Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).
57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)
Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS
51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)
Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS
49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)
Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS
19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)
Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS
18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)
McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH
11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)
All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH
8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT
7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH
6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT
5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS
4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:
I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS
3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)
Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT
2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)
Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)
Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:
Not bad. HIT
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
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