Category Archives: MLB Posts

SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (September 8, 2013)

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Additionally, SOEFA penalizes pitchers like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera who have done a very poor job when they have been asked to strand runners this season despite great numbers in other categories.

Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.10 and the inherited runner threshold has been increased from 5 to 8. SOEFA is a rate stat not a counting stat. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section. Also, as we look to improve SOEFA for next season, let us know if you have any suggestions!

Rank Player Team SOEFA
1 Neal Cotts Rangers 1.01
2 Kenley Jansen Dodgers 0.93
3 Greg Holland Royals 0.92
4 Koji Uehara Red Sox 0.90
5 Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 0.87
6 Mark Melancon Pirates 0.81
7 Craig Kimbrel Braves 0.79
8 Javier Lopez Giants 0.78
9 Jesse Crain White Sox 0.78
10 Drew Smyly Tigers 0.75
11 Will Smith Royals 0.71
12 Sergio Romo Giants 0.70
13 Jordan Walden Braves 0.70
14 Louis Coleman Royals 0.70
15 Chris Withrow Dodgers 0.69
16 Jason Grilli Pirates 0.67
17 Luke Hochevar Royals 0.67
18 Nick Vincent Padres 0.67
19 Edward Mujica Cardinals 0.66
20 Alex Torres Rays 0.65
21 Sam LeCure Reds 0.64
22 Joaquin Benoit Tigers 0.62
23 Sean Doolittle Athletics 0.59
24 Trevor Rosenthal Cardinals 0.58
25 Tanner Roark Nationals 0.57
26 Jim Henderson Brewers 0.56
27 Brandon Kintzler Brewers 0.54
28 Brian Matusz Orioles 0.54
29 Paco Rodriguez Dodgers 0.54
30 Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks 0.52
31 Jason Frasor Rangers 0.52
32 Glen Perkins Twins 0.52
33 Carlos Torres Mets 0.51
34 Juan Perez Blue Jays 0.50
35 Antonio Bastardo Phillies 0.50
36 Casey Fien Twins 0.48
37 Aroldis Chapman Reds 0.47
38 Dan Otero Athletics 0.47
39 Tommy Hunter Orioles 0.47
40 Shawn Kelley Yankees 0.47
41 Andrew Miller Red Sox 0.47
42 Joel Peralta Rays 0.46
43 Jake Diekman Phillies 0.45
44 Manny Parra Reds 0.45
45 Brett Cecil Blue Jays 0.45
46 Bobby Parnell Mets 0.44
47 Will Harris Diamondbacks 0.43
48 Randy Choate Cardinals 0.43
49 Seth Maness Cardinals 0.43
50 Matt Reynolds Diamondbacks 0.42
51 Vin Mazzaro Pirates 0.42
52 Junichi Tazawa Red Sox 0.41
53 Joe Thatcher – – – 0.41
54 Donovan Hand Brewers 0.41
55 Francisco Rodriguez – – – 0.40
56 Chad Qualls Marlins 0.40
57 Luis Avilan Braves 0.40
58 Jonathan Papelbon Phillies 0.40
59 Steve Delabar Blue Jays 0.39
60 Brad Ziegler Diamondbacks 0.38
61 Scott Downs – – – 0.37
62 Josh Outman Rockies 0.37
63 Addison Reed White Sox 0.36
64 Darren O’Day Orioles 0.36
65 David Carpenter Braves 0.36
66 Steve Cishek Marlins 0.35
67 Preston Claiborne Yankees 0.35
68 Tanner Scheppers Rangers 0.35
69 J.P. Howell Dodgers 0.35
70 Jean Machi Giants 0.34
71 Tony Watson Pirates 0.33
72 Ross Ohlendorf Nationals 0.33
73 Ernesto Frieri Angels 0.33
74 Robbie Ross Rangers 0.33
75 Santiago Casilla Giants 0.33
76 Ryan Cook Athletics 0.32
77 Jerome Williams Angels 0.31
78 Tom Gorzelanny Brewers 0.31
79 Tyler Clippard Nationals 0.31
80 Casey Janssen Blue Jays 0.31
81 David Robertson Yankees 0.30
82 Craig Breslow Red Sox 0.29
83 Nate Jones White Sox 0.28
84 Tim Collins Royals 0.27
85 Danny Farquhar Mariners 0.27
86 Grant Balfour Athletics 0.27
87 Mariano Rivera Yankees 0.27
88 Cody Allen Indians 0.27
89 Joe Smith Indians 0.26
90 Carlos Villanueva Cubs 0.26
91 Jeanmar Gomez Pirates 0.26
92 Aaron Loup Blue Jays 0.26
93 Matt Belisle Rockies 0.25
94 Anthony Varvaro Braves 0.25
95 Neil Wagner Blue Jays 0.25
96 Boone Logan Yankees 0.23
97 Jared Burton Twins 0.22
98 Craig Stammen Nationals 0.22
99 Chad Gaudin Giants 0.22
100 Jamey Wright Rays 0.22
101 Luke Gregerson Padres 0.21
102 Charlie Furbush Mariners 0.21
103 Luis Ayala – – – 0.20
104 Brian Duensing Twins 0.20
105 Jose Veras – – – 0.19
106 Blake Parker Cubs 0.18
107 Rafael Betancourt Rockies 0.17
108 Carter Capps Mariners 0.17
109 Caleb Thielbar Twins 0.17
110 Luke Putkonen Tigers 0.17
111 Wilton Lopez Rockies 0.17
112 Alfredo Simon Reds 0.17
113 Dan Jennings Marlins 0.16
114 Oliver Perez Mariners 0.16
115 Fernando Rodney Rays 0.16
116 Rex Brothers Rockies 0.16
117 Mike Dunn Marlins 0.15
118 Tim Stauffer Padres 0.15
119 J.J. Putz Diamondbacks 0.15
120 Alfredo Figaro Brewers 0.14
121 Dale Thayer Padres 0.13
122 Anthony Swarzak Twins 0.13
123 Yoervis Medina Mariners 0.12
124 Scott Rice Mets 0.11
125 Jesse Chavez Athletics 0.11
126 Matt Lindstrom White Sox 0.11
127 Kevin Gregg Cubs 0.11
128 Bryan Shaw Indians 0.10
129 Rafael Soriano Nationals 0.10
130 J.J. Hoover Reds 0.10
131 Sandy Rosario Giants 0.09
132 Justin Wilson Pirates 0.08
133 Andrew Bailey Red Sox 0.08
134 Ross Wolf Rangers 0.07
135 Kelvin Herrera Royals 0.07
136 Bruce Rondon Tigers 0.07
137 J.C. Gutierrez – – – 0.07
138 Joe Nathan Rangers 0.07
139 Joe Kelly Cardinals 0.06
140 Adam Ottavino Rockies 0.06
141 James Russell Cubs 0.06
142 Ryan Webb Marlins 0.06
143 Heath Bell Diamondbacks 0.05
144 Michael Kohn Angels 0.05
145 Tyson Ross Padres 0.04
146 Jim Johnson Orioles 0.04
147 Matt Thornton – – – 0.04
148 Manuel Corpas Rockies 0.04
149 LaTroy Hawkins Mets 0.03
150 Darren Oliver Blue Jays 0.03
151 Fernando Abad Nationals 0.02
152 Matt Guerrier – – – 0.01
153 Josh Edgin Mets 0.00
154 Edgmer Escalona Rockies -0.01
155 Kevin Jepsen Angels -0.03
156 Joe Ortiz Rangers -0.03
157 Pat Neshek Athletics -0.03
158 Ryan Pressly Twins -0.03
159 Gonzalez Germen Mets -0.03
160 Dane de la Rosa Angels -0.04
161 Burke Badenhop Brewers -0.04
162 Ronald Belisario Dodgers -0.04
163 Chris Perez Indians -0.04
164 Rob Scahill Rockies -0.05
165 Tyler Thornburg Brewers -0.05
166 Tony Sipp Diamondbacks -0.05
167 Huston Street Padres -0.06
168 David Aardsma Mets -0.07
169 Jerry Blevins Athletics -0.09
170 Logan Ondrusek Reds -0.10
171 Darin Downs Tigers -0.11
172 Jared Hughes Pirates -0.12
173 Troy Patton Orioles -0.13
174 Phil Coke Tigers -0.14
175 Josh Fields Astros -0.14
176 Josh Roenicke Twins -0.14
177 Jake McGee Rays -0.14
178 Aaron Crow Royals -0.14
179 Fernando Salas Cardinals -0.16
180 Tom Wilhelmsen Mariners -0.16
181 Cesar Ramos Rays -0.17
182 Rich Hill Indians -0.17
183 Drew Storen Nationals -0.18
184 Wesley Wright – – – -0.18
185 Jose Mijares Giants -0.18
186 Raul Valdes Phillies -0.19
187 Cory Gearrin Braves -0.19
188 Matt Albers Indians -0.19
189 Ramon Troncoso White Sox -0.19
190 Jake Dunning Giants -0.20
191 Brad Brach Padres -0.20
192 Nick Hagadone Indians -0.21
193 Jonathan Broxton Reds -0.23
194 Bryan Morris Pirates -0.24
195 Mike Adams Phillies -0.26
196 Blake Beavan Mariners -0.26
197 Kyle Farnsworth – – – -0.26
198 A.J. Ramos Marlins -0.26
199 Evan Scribner Athletics -0.27
200 Lucas Luetge Mariners -0.27
201 Pedro Strop – – – -0.27
202 David Hernandez Diamondbacks -0.29
203 Vinnie Pestano Indians -0.30
204 Greg Burke Mets -0.30
205 Brad Lincoln Blue Jays -0.30
206 Garrett Richards Angels -0.30
207 George Kontos Giants -0.31
208 Justin De Fratus Phillies -0.31
209 Marc Rzepczynski – – – -0.32
210 Donnie Veal White Sox -0.32
211 Michael Bowden Cubs -0.33
212 Zach Duke – – – -0.33
213 Paul Clemens Astros -0.36
214 T.J. McFarland Orioles -0.36
215 Michael Gonzalez Brewers -0.37
216 Adam Warren Yankees -0.38
217 Clayton Mortensen Red Sox -0.41
218 Esmil Rogers Blue Jays -0.42
219 John Axford – – – -0.42
220 Al Alburquerque Tigers -0.43
221 Travis Blackley Astros -0.44
222 Alex Wilson Red Sox -0.45
223 Scott Atchison Mets -0.46
224 Joba Chamberlain Yankees -0.48
225 Brandon Lyon Mets -0.48
226 Brandon Maurer Mariners -0.51
227 Ryan Mattheus Nationals -0.53
228 Bruce Chen Royals -0.54
229 Carlos Marmol – – – -0.58
230 Jose Cisnero Astros -0.58
231 Jeremy Horst Phillies -0.59
232 Hector Ambriz Astros -0.62
233 Ian Krol Nationals -0.63
234 Dallas Keuchel Astros -0.63
235 Jeremy Affeldt Giants -0.64
236 Henry Rodriguez – – – -0.70
237 Michael Kirkman Rangers -0.74
238 Hector Rondon Cubs -0.74
239 Lucas Harrell Astros -0.80
240 Luis Garcia Phillies -0.87
241 Brandon League Dodgers -0.88
242 Anthony Bass Padres -0.88
243 Shawn Camp Cubs -1.03
Posted in: MLB Posts, SOEFA | Tagged: , , ,

The Nine Pitchers Who Give Up The Most Unearned Runs

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

Something I’ve always found interesting is that pitchers get to deduct unearned runs from their ERA but they don’t get to deduct runs from their ERA when their defense doesn’t make an easy play that they should have. In the past, I’ve highlighted more advanced ways to demonstrate to measure a pitcher’s value that factors out defense like FIP, xFIP, and others and I’ve also pointed out why this distinction between ERA and Runs Allowed/9 is a little bit arbitrary.

Below, for no other reason than to think about something we almost never think about, are the pitchers who have allowed the most unearned runs in 2013 and the pitchers who have allowed the highest percentage of their runs in an unearned run fashion (min 50 IP).

Rank Name Team UER UER% ERA IP R ER
9 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 10 16.13% 2.85 164 62 52
8 Hector Santiago White Sox 10 16.39% 3.43 133.2 61 51
7 Justin Verlander Tigers 10 11.90% 3.59 185.2 84 74
6 Ryan Dempster Red Sox 10 10.64% 4.79 157.2 94 84
5 Lucas Harrell Astros 11 11.22% 5.69 137.2 98 87
4 C.J. Wilson Angels 12 14.63% 3.42 184 82 70
3 Jeremy Hefner Mets 12 16.00% 4.34 130.2 75 63
2 Edwin Jackson Cubs 13 13.27% 4.91 155.2 98 85
1 Wily Peralta Brewers 17 17.00% 4.51 165.2 100 83

 

Rank Name Team UER UER% ERA IP R ER
9 Rex Brothers Rockies 3 20.00% 1.81 59.2 15 12
8 Charlie Furbush Mariners 5 20.00% 3.16 57 25 20
7 Stephen Fife Dodgers 4 21.05% 2.55 53 19 15
6 Tanner Scheppers Rangers 4 22.22% 2.04 61.2 18 14
5 Taylor Jordan Nationals 6 22.22% 3.66 51.2 27 21
4 Burke Badenhop Brewers 7 22.58% 3.62 59.2 31 24
3 Charlie Morton Pirates 9 23.08% 3.00 90 39 30
2 Craig Breslow Red Sox 4 25.00% 2.12 51 16 12
1 Bobby Parnell Mets 5 29.41% 2.16 50 17 12

I think it’s important to think about this because we all agree that a pitcher isn’t responsible for every run he allows, but he also isn’t without blame for all of them either. Earned and unearned runs are the traditional line we draw, but there is nothing that meaningful about such a boundary. These runs count against the team and plenty of unearned runs aren’t the pitcher’s fault.

Food for thought.

Posted in: MLB Posts, The Nine | Tagged: , , ,

Dynamic Standings Projection (September 5, 2013)

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.

This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the September 4th games. Note that DSP posts have been moved to Thursday accommodate something that won’t interest you. 

5-Sep W L   PreDiff
BOS 94 68 0.580 17
TB 90 72 0.556 -1
NYY 87 75 0.537 2
BAL 85 77 0.525 3
TOR 76 86 0.469 -11
W L   PreDiff
DET 94 68 0.580 0
CLE 84 78 0.519 13
KC 83 79 0.512 7
MIN 71 91 0.438 6
CWS 68 94 0.420 -15
W L   PreDiff
TEX 93 69 0.574 2
OAK 92 70 0.568 8
LAA 77 85 0.475 -11
SEA 74 88 0.457 -1
HOU 55 107 0.340 -5
W L   PreDiff
ATL 98 64 0.605 8
WSH 84 78 0.519 -11
NYM 75 87 0.463 -3
PHI 74 88 0.457 -10
MIA 61 101 0.377 -2
W L   PreDiff
PIT 93 69 0.574 11
STL 92 70 0.568 4
CIN 90 72 0.556 -2
MIL 71 91 0.438 -8
CHC 69 93 0.426 1
W L   PreDiff
LAD 95 67 0.586 7
ARZ 82 80 0.506 0
SF 75 87 0.463 -16
COL 74 88 0.457 -4
SD 73 89 0.451 10

pic1 pic2 pic3 pic4 pic5 pic6

Posted in: Dynamic Standings Projection, MLB Posts

Could We Assign “Wins” Differently?

By Neil Weinberg on | 7 Comments

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

If you’ve been here before, or someone like Brian Kenny tweeted a link to this post, you know that we are big proponents of the #KillTheWin movement. We don’t like wins and losses as a pitching statistic for many reasons. You can pitch well and not get a win, you can pitch terribly and get a win, wins don’t even out, and wins are extremely misleading. Put simply, wins are dependent on things that pitchers can’t control and it’s silly to measure them based on something their teammates do. Here are links to all of our formative #KillTheWin work:

But today I’d like to address a solution that a lot of people are calling for. You see, the old guard won’t let go of the wins and losses concept and language. They can’t accept things like FIP, xFIP, and WAR, or even K%, BB%, GB%. Even ERA is doesn’t satisfy their longing for the “W.” So I’d like to propose a simple idea that simply changes the methodology for awarding wins and losses. Currently, a starter has to pitch at least 5 innings, leave with a lead, and not watch the bullpen surrender that lead. If we invented wins and losses today, no doubt we wouldn’t use such a silly rule.

So let’s use a better one. If there is an appetite for Wins and Losses, why don’t we actually tie wins and losses to performance? Here are two basic proposals that do that while solving a couple of key issues with wins.

The first problem with wins and losses is that it depends on how much and when your team scores. So what we want is something that only measures the impact of the pitcher on the game. Another problem with wins and losses is that the no-decision essentially erases everything you did on a given day. If a pitcher throws 7 shutout innings and gets a no decision, that game shows up in every single one of his stats except wins and losses. We want to judge every start a pitcher makes, not just one in which the right conditions are met by his offense and bullpen.

To partially resolve this issue, let’s turn to the 2013 Tigers as an example. Instead of wins and losses as determined by the current rule, what if we allocate them by Win Probability Added (WPA) or Run Expectancy 24 (RE24)? Those two stats are a bit complicated to calculate, but extremely easy to understand. WPA reflects the percentage by which a player improved his team’s chances of winning. It is very context dependent, but you can still earn positive values even when your team is losing. RE24 is a similar statistic except it doesn’t pay attention to the score of the game and just reflects how many runs above or below average you are contributing. Think of it this way, in a 10-0 game a solo homerun has a pretty low WPA because the game is already decided, but it has the same RE24 in a 10-0 as it does in a 2-0 game. Both allow for the addition of value in a context dependent sense, but both also allow a player to add value even when his team is not. Both of these stats are readily available on FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Below I present the 2013 Tigers with WPA and RE24 “wins.” If a pitcher has a positive WPA or RE24 for a single game they get a win. If it’s negative, they get a loss. No no-decisions and no concern about how the game actually ended. Did the pitcher improve his team’s chances of winning a single game? That’s what wins and losses should tell us, so let’s try this.

There are obvious weakness to this approach, namely that I’m not addressing by how much a pitcher helped his team, but to answer that question, we have season long numbers that are more important. This approach is meant to give people who want to see wins and losses a better reflection of true value.

Pitcher Starts W-L WPA W-L RE24 W-L
Fister 28 12-7 18-10 19-9
Sanchez 24 12-7 16-8 17-7
Scherzer 27 19-1 22-5 22-5
Verlander 29 12-10 17-12 18-11
Porcello 26 11-7 15-11 16-10

You will notice a couple of things. You’ll notice that Scherzer’s no-decisions are primarily the function of his team bailing him out and Fister, Sanchez, and Verlander’s are almost all a case of the Tigers not providing enough run support. Porcello’s are divided pretty evenly. This is interesting because it shows that even on individual teams, wins/losses/no decisions are handed out irregularly despite the same contingent of position players.

For the die-hard #KillTheWin-er, this approach is still too context dependent and derived from an illogical attempt to hand wins and losses to a single player. But for a more traditional observer, hopefully this is compelling. Even if you like wins and losses, surely you can appreciate that the actual way in which wins and losses are assigned is arbitrary and foolish. Why is 5 innings the cutoff? Why do you not get a win if you pitch 8 shutout innings and your team wins in a walkoff? Why should you get a win if you allow 6 runs? Even if you want to track day to day contribution, at least track it in a way that reflects what the player you’re judging actually did.

Now I’m not sure if this is the best way, but this is definitely an improvement over wins and losses as currently defined. The current stat makes no contribution to analysis, this one makes some contribution. I’d still rather pay attention to season long numbers, but if we’re going to judge a player in each individual game, let’s at least do it right.

Posted in: MLB Posts, Stat of the Week, Tigers Posts | Tagged: , , , ,

Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (September 2013 Update)

By Neil Weinberg on | 1 Comment

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June, July, and August I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.

Here is the gist from the original:

The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.

This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.

Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Adam Wainwright
  3. Clayton Kershaw
  4. Felix Hernandez
  5. Yu Darvish
  6. Cliff Lee
  7. Max Scherzer
  8. Anibal Sanchez
  9. Stephen Strasburg
  10. Chris Sale
  11. Doug Fister
  12. Jose Fernandez
  13. David Price
  14. Francisco Liriano
  15. Shelby Miller
  16. Mat Latos
  17. Derek Holland
  18. Jordan Zimmerman
  19. Homer Bailey
  20. Partrick Corbin
  21. Hiroki Kuroda
  22. Zack Greinke
  23. Clay Buchholz  (On the DL, no return set)
  24. Matt Harvey (Out for the season)

Let’s talk about the changes. Harvey falls off because he’s not pitching anymore this season. Greinke joins the italicized players thanks to a very strong stretch of pitching and his Ruthian season at the plate. Both Jarrod Parker and Cole Hamels have my attention, but I’m not ready to call them must watch starters just yet.

There is very little else worth moving on the list as only Liriano made the jump from fringe to stable with everyone else in italics maintaining their place on the list. I find the lack of movement kind of interesting, as I added and subtracted more guys in previous months. Perhaps this is a function of performance evening out, or perhaps it’s just a random blip on the radar. As always, this is an entirely subjective list based on my own sense of what makes someone compelling to wach.

Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.

Posted in: Appointment Television, MLB Posts | Tagged: , , ,

SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (September 1, 2013)

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.11 and the inherited runner threshold has been increased from 5 to 8. SOEFA is a rate stat not a counting stat. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section.

Rank Player Team SOEFA
1 Neal Cotts Rangers 1.00
2 Kenley Jansen Dodgers 0.98
3 Greg Holland Royals 0.95
4 Koji Uehara Red Sox 0.87
5 Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 0.83
6 Mark Melancon Pirates 0.80
7 Joaquin Benoit Tigers 0.79
8 Jesse Crain White Sox 0.78
9 Craig Kimbrel Braves 0.77
10 Javier Lopez Giants 0.77
11 Drew Smyly Tigers 0.76
12 Alex Torres Rays 0.72
13 Sergio Romo Giants 0.71
14 Jason Grilli Pirates 0.71
15 Jordan Walden Braves 0.70
16 Edward Mujica Cardinals 0.69
17 Paco Rodriguez Dodgers 0.68
18 Nick Vincent Padres 0.65
19 Louis Coleman Royals 0.65
20 Sam LeCure Reds 0.62
21 Shawn Kelley Yankees 0.61
22 Glen Perkins Twins 0.60
23 Luke Hochevar Royals 0.60
24 Brandon Kintzler Brewers 0.58
25 Jim Henderson Brewers 0.57
26 Tanner Roark Nationals 0.57
27 Dan Otero Athletics 0.54
28 Preston Claiborne Yankees 0.54
29 Trevor Rosenthal Cardinals 0.53
30 Chris Withrow Dodgers 0.52
31 Carlos Torres Mets 0.52
32 Sean Doolittle Athletics 0.52
33 David Robertson Yankees 0.51
34 Brian Matusz Orioles 0.51
35 Casey Fien Twins 0.51
36 Jason Frasor Rangers 0.51
37 Juan Perez Blue Jays 0.50
38 Tommy Hunter Orioles 0.49
39 Antonio Bastardo Phillies 0.49
40 Will Harris Diamondbacks 0.47
41 Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks 0.47
42 Andrew Miller Red Sox 0.47
43 Seth Maness Cardinals 0.47
44 Randy Choate Cardinals 0.46
45 Junichi Tazawa Red Sox 0.45
46 Brett Cecil Blue Jays 0.44
47 Bobby Parnell Mets 0.44
48 J.P. Howell Dodgers 0.44
49 Joel Peralta Rays 0.44
50 Robbie Ross Rangers 0.43
51 Scott Downs – – – 0.43
52 Jake Diekman Phillies 0.43
53 Jonathan Papelbon Phillies 0.43
54 Manny Parra Reds 0.42
55 Matt Reynolds Diamondbacks 0.42
56 Boone Logan Yankees 0.41
57 Vin Mazzaro Pirates 0.41
58 Tyler Clippard Nationals 0.41
59 Aroldis Chapman Reds 0.39
60 Chad Qualls Marlins 0.39
61 Ross Ohlendorf Nationals 0.38
62 Luis Avilan Braves 0.37
63 Casey Janssen Blue Jays 0.37
64 Addison Reed White Sox 0.36
65 Joe Thatcher – – – 0.36
66 Gonzalez Germen Mets 0.35
67 Brad Ziegler Diamondbacks 0.35
68 Tony Watson Pirates 0.35
69 Darren O’Day Orioles 0.34
70 Donovan Hand Brewers 0.34
71 Tom Gorzelanny Brewers 0.34
72 Neil Wagner Blue Jays 0.34
73 Tanner Scheppers Rangers 0.33
74 Steve Cishek Marlins 0.33
75 Craig Breslow Red Sox 0.32
76 Matt Belisle Rockies 0.32
77 Francisco Rodriguez – – – 0.31
78 Jerome Williams Angels 0.31
79 Josh Outman Rockies 0.31
80 Alfredo Figaro Brewers 0.30
81 Nate Jones White Sox 0.30
82 Grant Balfour Athletics 0.28
83 Dale Thayer Padres 0.28
84 Steve Delabar Blue Jays 0.28
85 Caleb Thielbar Twins 0.27
86 Rex Brothers Rockies 0.27
87 David Carpenter Braves 0.26
88 Santiago Casilla Giants 0.26
89 Jared Burton Twins 0.25
90 Danny Farquhar Mariners 0.25
91 Tim Collins Royals 0.25
92 Aaron Loup Blue Jays 0.25
93 Cody Allen Indians 0.24
94 Blake Parker Cubs 0.24
95 Jean Machi Giants 0.23
96 Joe Smith Indians 0.22
97 Anthony Varvaro Braves 0.22
98 Ryan Cook Athletics 0.22
99 Chad Gaudin Giants 0.22
100 Ernesto Frieri Angels 0.22
101 Charlie Furbush Mariners 0.22
102 Jeanmar Gomez Pirates 0.21
103 Jamey Wright Rays 0.21
104 Carter Capps Mariners 0.20
105 Alfredo Simon Reds 0.20
106 Dan Jennings Marlins 0.18
107 Rafael Betancourt Rockies 0.17
108 Matt Thornton – – – 0.17
109 J.C. Gutierrez – – – 0.16
110 Jose Veras – – – 0.15
111 Scott Rice Mets 0.15
112 Brian Duensing Twins 0.14
113 J.J. Putz Diamondbacks 0.14
114 Fernando Rodney Rays 0.13
115 Oliver Perez Mariners 0.13
116 Jesse Chavez Athletics 0.12
117 Justin Wilson Pirates 0.12
118 Mike Dunn Marlins 0.12
119 Wilton Lopez Rockies 0.12
120 Matt Lindstrom White Sox 0.11
121 Luke Gregerson Padres 0.11
122 Tim Stauffer Padres 0.10
123 Kevin Gregg Cubs 0.09
124 Heath Bell Diamondbacks 0.09
125 Craig Stammen Nationals 0.09
126 Andrew Bailey Red Sox 0.09
127 Mariano Rivera Yankees 0.08
128 Ryan Webb Marlins 0.08
129 J.J. Hoover Reds 0.08
130 Ross Wolf Rangers 0.07
131 Luis Ayala – – – 0.07
132 Yoervis Medina Mariners 0.07
133 Anthony Swarzak Twins 0.06
134 Rafael Soriano Nationals 0.06
135 David Aardsma Mets 0.06
136 Sandy Rosario Giants 0.06
137 Joe Nathan Rangers 0.06
138 Joe Kelly Cardinals 0.06
139 Tyson Ross Padres 0.04
140 Bryan Shaw Indians 0.04
141 Bruce Rondon Tigers 0.02
142 James Russell Cubs 0.02
143 Matt Guerrier – – – 0.01
144 Carlos Villanueva Cubs 0.01
145 LaTroy Hawkins Mets 0.00
146 Fernando Abad Nationals 0.00
147 Dane de la Rosa Angels 0.00
148 Josh Edgin Mets -0.01
149 Chris Perez Indians -0.01
150 Michael Kohn Angels -0.01
151 Darren Oliver Blue Jays -0.02
152 Ryan Pressly Twins -0.02
153 Edgmer Escalona Rockies -0.02
154 Jim Johnson Orioles -0.02
155 Kevin Jepsen Angels -0.03
156 Cesar Ramos Rays -0.03
157 Adam Ottavino Rockies -0.03
158 Pat Neshek Athletics -0.03
159 Luke Putkonen Tigers -0.04
160 Adam Warren Yankees -0.04
161 Aaron Crow Royals -0.04
162 Tyler Thornburg Brewers -0.05
163 Jake McGee Rays -0.05
164 Jared Hughes Pirates -0.05
165 Burke Badenhop Brewers -0.05
166 Joe Ortiz Rangers -0.05
167 Rob Scahill Rockies -0.06
168 Ronald Belisario Dodgers -0.07
169 Bryan Morris Pirates -0.08
170 Huston Street Padres -0.09
171 Tony Sipp Diamondbacks -0.10
172 Manuel Corpas Rockies -0.10
173 Jerry Blevins Athletics -0.11
174 Darin Downs Tigers -0.12
175 Logan Ondrusek Reds -0.12
176 Brad Brach Padres -0.12
177 Josh Roenicke Twins -0.13
178 Kelvin Herrera Royals -0.13
179 Troy Patton Orioles -0.14
180 Jose Mijares Giants -0.15
181 Tom Wilhelmsen Mariners -0.15
182 Rich Hill Indians -0.16
183 Phil Coke Tigers -0.16
184 Raul Valdes Phillies -0.19
185 Al Alburquerque Tigers -0.19
186 A.J. Ramos Marlins -0.19
187 Cory Gearrin Braves -0.19
188 Ramon Troncoso White Sox -0.20
189 Josh Fields Astros -0.20
190 Nick Hagadone Indians -0.21
191 Joba Chamberlain Yankees -0.21
192 Drew Storen Nationals -0.23
193 Jonathan Broxton Reds -0.23
194 Wesley Wright – – – -0.26
195 Mike Adams Phillies -0.26
196 Pedro Strop – – – -0.26
197 Marc Rzepczynski – – – -0.26
198 Fernando Salas Cardinals -0.27
199 Vinnie Pestano Indians -0.27
200 Blake Beavan Mariners -0.27
201 Donnie Veal White Sox -0.28
202 Matt Albers Indians -0.28
203 Greg Burke Mets -0.29
204 Brad Lincoln Blue Jays -0.30
205 Garrett Richards Angels -0.31
206 Justin De Fratus Phillies -0.31
207 David Hernandez Diamondbacks -0.35
208 George Kontos Giants -0.36
209 Michael Bowden Cubs -0.37
210 Scott Atchison Mets -0.37
211 John Axford – – – -0.37
212 Paul Clemens Astros -0.37
213 Michael Gonzalez Brewers -0.38
214 Kyle Farnsworth Rays -0.39
215 Clayton Mortensen Red Sox -0.41
216 T.J. McFarland Orioles -0.42
217 Esmil Rogers Blue Jays -0.42
218 Alex Wilson Red Sox -0.44
219 Travis Blackley Astros -0.45
220 Lucas Luetge Mariners -0.48
221 Brandon Lyon Mets -0.48
222 Ian Krol Nationals -0.50
223 Bruce Chen Royals -0.54
224 Carlos Marmol – – – -0.56
225 Jose Cisnero Astros -0.58
226 Jeremy Horst Phillies -0.59
227 Dallas Keuchel Astros -0.63
228 Hector Ambriz Astros -0.63
229 Jeremy Affeldt Giants -0.65
230 Henry Rodriguez – – – -0.71
231 Ryan Mattheus Nationals -0.72
232 Michael Kirkman Rangers -0.74
233 Hector Rondon Cubs -0.76
234 Lucas Harrell Astros -0.91
235 Brandon League Dodgers -0.93
236 Anthony Bass Padres -0.97
237 Shawn Camp Cubs -1.04
Posted in: MLB Posts, SOEFA | Tagged: , , ,

The Nine Best Seasons from Non-Qualifying Hitters (since ’62)

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

When we talk about postseason statistical titles or when we break down numbers, we often talk about performance among qualifying players. For hitters, this means among players who have had 3.1 PA or more per each team game. Over the course of 162 games, that works out to just over 502 PA in a season. But players who don’t reach that threshold can still be valuable and I’d like to highlight some of the best.

Here are the basic rules. First, this is since 1962 when both leagues went to the 162 games schedule and I’ve dropped out all seasons with labor stoppages. I’ve also rounded down to 500 PA just for simplicity and because sometimes a team plays 161 or 163 games or whatever. Don’t get caught up the technicalities. Below are The Nine  best ranked by WAR with the recognition that defensive numbers are pretty imprecise when we go back beyond the last 10 or so seasons.

Rank Season Name Team G PA Fld BsR WAR
9 2001 J.D. Drew Cardinals 108 443 9.0 1.3 5.6
8 1970 Bernie Carbo Reds 125 467 2.0 0.6 5.6
7 2012 Joey Votto Reds 111 475 6.2 -3.5 5.6
6 1992 Rickey Henderson Athletics 116 500 3.0 5.2 5.6
5 1996 Scott Brosius Athletics 114 500 19 0.4 5.8
4 1982 Gary Roenicke Orioles 135 477 21 -1.6 5.9
3 1995 Mike Piazza Dodgers 112 475 -2.0 0.1 6.0
2 1993 Rick Wilkins Cubs 132 500 14 0.1 6.7
1 2003 Javy Lopez Braves 129 495 1.0 -1.2 6.8

And for more detailed information on those seasons:

Rank Season Name HR AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
9 2001 J.D. Drew 27 0.323 0.414 0.613 0.429 162
8 1970 Bernie Carbo 21 0.310 0.454 0.551 0.441 170
7 2012 Joey Votto 14 0.337 0.474 0.567 0.438 177
6 1992 Rickey Henderson 15 0.283 0.426 0.457 0.401 158
5 1996 Scott Brosius 22 0.304 0.393 0.516 0.392 131
4 1982 Gary Roenicke 21 0.270 0.392 0.499 0.397 148
3 1995 Mike Piazza 32 0.346 0.400 0.606 0.427 168
2 1993 Rick Wilkins 30 0.303 0.376 0.561 0.400 144
1 2003 Javy Lopez 43 0.328 0.378 0.687 0.442 170

All of these, as you would expect feature players who came very close to qualifying. Should you be curious Justin Morneau’s 2010 season of 4.9 WAR is the highest on the list among players who had fewer than 400 PA.

Posted in: MLB Posts, The Nine | Tagged: , ,

Dynamic Standings Projection (August 29, 2013)

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.

This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the August 28 games. Note that DSP posts have been moved to Thursday accommodate something that won’t interest you. 

29-Aug W L   PreDiff
TB 92 70 0.568 1
BOS 92 70 0.568 15
BAL 86 76 0.531 4
NYY 85 77 0.525 0
TOR 75 87 0.463 -12
W L   PreDiff
DET 94 68 0.580 0
CLE 84 78 0.519 13
KC 82 80 0.506 6
CWS 71 91 0.438 -12
MIN 69 93 0.426 4
W L   PreDiff
TEX 94 68 0.580 3
OAK 91 71 0.562 7
LAA 76 86 0.469 -12
SEA 73 89 0.451 -2
HOU 55 107 0.340 -5
W L   PreDiff
ATL 97 65 0.599 7
WSH 85 77 0.525 -10
PHI 76 86 0.469 -8
NYM 74 88 0.457 -4
MIA 61 101 0.377 -2
W L   PreDiff
STL 94 68 0.580 6
PIT 92 70 0.568 10
CIN 91 71 0.562 -1
MIL 73 89 0.451 -6
CHC 68 94 0.420 0
W L   PreDiff
LAD 94 68 0.580 6
ARZ 83 79 0.512 1
SF 75 87 0.463 -16
SD 74 88 0.457 -4
COL 74 88 0.457 11

pic1 pic2 pic3 pic4 pic5 pic6

Posted in: Dynamic Standings Projection, MLB Posts | Tagged: , , ,

Jon Heyman Kills The Win While Trying to Save It

By Neil Weinberg on | 2 Comments

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

Here at New English D we are on the front lines of the #KillTheWin movement. If you’re new to the site and are open-minded, please check out our 5 part series on why wins aren’t useful:

All of those links make a singular case. Wins are not useful when evaluating individual pitchers. The goal of baseball fans and analysts is to properly understand the game we love. Wins don’t cause poverty, but wins are detrimental to our understanding of baseball because so many people use them as a measure of value, which they are not.

Today, Jon Heyman wrote about Max Scherzer (currently leading the league in wins by a lot) and couldn’t resist fighting back against the #KillTheWin movement. He makes several points. First, he argues that Scherzer should narrowly beat Felix for the AL Cy. Hey, we agree on that! Second, he says those of us trying to kill the win are wasting our time. That’s silly because we enjoy killing the win and baseball is about having fun, but I’m not going to engage in pettiness when the real issues are much more important.

Next, Heyman says:

Wins do matter (though clearly not nearly as much as we once thought — and I give the stat guys credit for pointing this out.) No starter gets to 19-1 only because they are lucky, or because they “happened” to be “standing on the mound” when his team scored a ton of runs, as some would have you believe.

So here we see Heyman acknowledge that he places less stock in wins today that he used to. Meaning that he was wrong before and therefore could be wrong again. Furthermore, Heyman says no one goes 19-1 because of luck/happenstance/standing on the mound. Actually, Jon, they do. Scherzer is an excellent starting pitcher, but he is not meaningfully better than Felix. Certainly not better than Kershaw or Harvey. Yet he has many more wins than they do and many fewer losses. The difference is that the Tigers score crazy amount of runs for Scherzer because they are really good at scoring runs. Additionally, he gets more runs than his other rotation-mates. Scherzer gets 7.32 runs per 9. Felix gets 4.73. Chris Sale gets 3.03.

Even if you want to dramatically oversimplify baseball and assume a pitcher controls everything that happens when he is on the mound (he doesn’t), he still has no control over what his offense does. In order to get a win, you have to be in the game when your team takes the lead for the final time. If you team doesn’t score, or scores AT THE WRONG TIME, you do not get a win regardless of how you pitched.

It’s obvious that Heyman knows this based on his comments throughout the piece:

There are a lot better numbers to illustrate a pitcher’s performance over a season than wins and losses.

But does that mean a pitcher’s record is now totally worthless?

Heyman argues that wins are not the most important thing, but that they are not worthless. Which poses the important question at which I will now arrive. What do wins tell us that we can’t see in other stats?

What is the value of seeing a W/L record beyond seeing things like ERA, K%, BB%, GB%, FIP, xFIP, WAR, RE24, SwStr%, IP, etc? What do wins and losses add to the discussion?

Nothing. Not one thing. Heyman says consistency, but that isn’t the case. Check out the link about about “misleading” and you’ll see that argument doesn’t hold water. Good, consistent pitchers can win less often than bad and inconsistent ones. Heyman says wins aren’t about being in the right place at the right time, but they clearly are. The Tigers score a disproportionate number of runs for Scherzer than they do for his teammates. Scherzer is both good and lucky. They aren’t mutually exclusive, but that doesn’t mean he should get credit for something he had nothing to do with.

Scherzer is great. He has an excellent W/L record. Those two things are related, but not highly related. Good pitchers, on average, win more often than bad ones because they have some control over the number of runs they allow but that doesn’t mean judging a player by wins and losses is useful. It adds nothing to our understanding and does more harm than good. Heyman cites Tillman making the ASG as case and point.

Wins influence people’s thinking, whether it’s Tillman in the ASG or it’s Dusty Baker leaving Bailey on the mound when he was losing it so he could “have a chance to get a win.”

My argument here is that wins provide us with no meaningful information and at best are trivial and at worst are negatively impacting games. Heyman concludes:

The goal, ultimately, is to win games when a pitcher takes the mound, and Scherzer has done that better than anybody. Yes, there is a lot of luck involved in getting pitcher wins. But in Scherzer’s case, he has pitched great, too, and no one should claim he hasn’t.

Which is interesting, because the Scherzer is getting a lot of luck as far as wins go. Sale isn’t pitching as well as Scherzer, but he’s not pitching 9-12 to 19-1 worse. Also, Heyman is using a strawman argument in his closing. No one, not one single person, thinks Scherzer hasn’t been great. He’s been amazing. Fantastic. Cy Young or very close to it, brilliant. That’s not what this is about at all. He’s 19-1 and Chris Sale is 9-12. He’s not “10 wins” better than Sale. Not under any real definition of pitching ability or performance. This is a statistic that doesn’t reflect performance at all. It adds nothing to the conversation you can’t get elsewhere. That’s why we want to kill it.

I would like to point out the broader issue. Heyman is actually one of the more evolutionary members of the old guard. He clearly sees the fault in wins, but still wants to defend them. Read his defense. Think about it for yourself, it’s like he wants to hold onto wins because he’s used to them. And that’s not a good reason. “How we’ve always done things” is not a good way to make decisions.

I don’t understand the purpose of Heyman’s argument. Why does he want to save them? What utility do they bring to the conversation? This is not a personal assault on Heyman, but he put his views out there in writing, so they are open to criticism. I’m an academic and a baseball writer, so I know about critical feedback. You’re welcome to criticize my reasoning as well. I can take it, don’t worry. I offered Heyman a chance to clarify his message on Twitter and he has yet to do so. If he writes back, I’ll be glad to amend this post.

There is no value in looking at wins and losses for a starting pitcher. That’s not about Scherzer or Felix, it’s about analysts and fans. In fact, Heyman and his fellow BBWAA members should use their access to go ask Scherzer about wins, or even Google his quotes on the issue. He gets it and he’s the person who benefits most from looking at wins. If he doesn’t care about them, it’s time to let them go.

Posted in: MLB Posts, Stat of the Week | Tagged: , , , ,

SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (August 25, 2013)

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.12 and the inherited runner threshold has been increased from 5 to 8. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section.

Rank Name Team SOEFA
1 Neal Cotts Rangers 0.99
2 Kenley Jansen Dodgers 0.95
3 Greg Holland Royals 0.93
4 Drew Smyly Tigers 0.88
5 Koji Uehara Red Sox 0.85
6 Chris Withrow Dodgers 0.84
7 Mark Melancon Pirates 0.80
8 Jesse Crain White Sox 0.78
9 Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 0.78
10 Nick Vincent Padres 0.78
11 Joaquin Benoit Tigers 0.77
12 Craig Kimbrel Braves 0.76
13 Javier Lopez Giants 0.72
14 Jason Grilli Pirates 0.71
15 Jim Henderson Brewers 0.71
16 Alex Torres Rays 0.70
17 Jordan Walden Braves 0.70
18 Edward Mujica Cardinals 0.69
19 Sergio Romo Giants 0.68
20 Sam LeCure Reds 0.63
21 Paco Rodriguez Dodgers 0.62
22 Louis Coleman Royals 0.61
23 Shawn Kelley Yankees 0.59
24 Manny Parra Reds 0.58
25 Casey Fien Twins 0.57
26 Gonzalez Germen Mets 0.57
27 Glen Perkins Twins 0.56
28 Brandon Kintzler Brewers 0.55
29 Sean Doolittle Athletics 0.55
30 Luke Hochevar Royals 0.54
31 Preston Claiborne Yankees 0.54
32 Brian Matusz Orioles 0.51
33 Trevor Rosenthal Cardinals 0.51
34 Dan Otero Athletics 0.50
35 David Robertson Yankees 0.50
36 Juan Perez Blue Jays 0.50
37 Tommy Hunter Orioles 0.50
38 Will Harris Diamondbacks 0.50
39 Antonio Bastardo Phillies 0.49
40 Brett Cecil Blue Jays 0.48
41 Junichi Tazawa Red Sox 0.48
42 Matt Belisle Rockies 0.48
43 Andrew Miller Red Sox 0.47
44 Grant Balfour Athletics 0.47
45 Jason Frasor Rangers 0.47
46 Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks 0.47
47 Randy Choate Cardinals 0.47
48 Seth Maness Cardinals 0.47
49 Carlos Torres Mets 0.45
50 Bobby Parnell Mets 0.44
51 J.P. Howell Dodgers 0.44
52 Caleb Thielbar Twins 0.43
53 Joel Peralta Rays 0.43
54 Joe Thatcher – – – 0.42
55 Matt Reynolds Diamondbacks 0.42
56 Addison Reed White Sox 0.41
57 Brad Ziegler Diamondbacks 0.41
58 Darren O’Day Orioles 0.41
59 Jonathan Papelbon Phillies 0.41
60 Aroldis Chapman Reds 0.40
61 Luis Avilan Braves 0.40
62 Robbie Ross Rangers 0.39
63 Tony Watson Pirates 0.39
64 Boone Logan Yankees 0.38
65 Casey Janssen Blue Jays 0.38
66 Jared Burton Twins 0.38
67 Ross Ohlendorf Nationals 0.38
68 Chad Qualls Marlins 0.36
69 Vin Mazzaro Pirates 0.36
70 Francisco Rodriguez – – – 0.35
71 Jake Diekman Phillies 0.35
72 Tyler Clippard Nationals 0.35
73 Donovan Hand Brewers 0.34
74 Tom Gorzelanny Brewers 0.34
75 David Carpenter Braves 0.33
76 Scott Downs – – – 0.33
77 Josh Outman Rockies 0.32
78 Steve Cishek Marlins 0.32
79 Dale Thayer Padres 0.31
80 Alfredo Figaro Brewers 0.30
81 Cody Allen Indians 0.29
82 Neil Wagner Blue Jays 0.29
83 Ryan Cook Athletics 0.28
84 Steve Delabar Blue Jays 0.28
85 Bruce Rondon Tigers 0.27
86 Nate Jones White Sox 0.27
87 Craig Breslow Red Sox 0.26
88 Jean Machi Giants 0.26
89 Rex Brothers Rockies 0.25
90 Heath Bell Diamondbacks 0.24
91 Jerome Williams Angels 0.24
92 Tanner Scheppers Rangers 0.24
93 Danny Farquhar Mariners 0.23
94 Joe Smith Indians 0.23
95 Santiago Casilla Giants 0.23
96 Chad Gaudin Giants 0.22
97 Alfredo Simon Reds 0.21
98 Anthony Varvaro Braves 0.21
99 Jamey Wright Rays 0.21
100 Jose Veras – – – 0.20
101 Tim Collins Royals 0.20
102 Ernesto Frieri Angels 0.19
103 Wilton Lopez Rockies 0.19
104 Aaron Loup Blue Jays 0.17
105 J.J. Hoover Reds 0.17
106 Rafael Betancourt Rockies 0.17
107 Charlie Furbush Mariners 0.16
108 J.C. Gutierrez – – – 0.16
109 Jeanmar Gomez Pirates 0.16
110 Blake Parker Cubs 0.15
111 Craig Stammen Nationals 0.15
112 Justin Wilson Pirates 0.15
113 Matt Thornton – – – 0.15
114 Brian Duensing Twins 0.14
115 Carlos Villanueva Cubs 0.14
116 J.J. Putz Diamondbacks 0.14
117 Kevin Gregg Cubs 0.14
118 Fernando Rodney Rays 0.13
119 Jesse Chavez Athletics 0.13
120 Bryan Shaw Indians 0.12
121 Luke Gregerson Padres 0.12
122 Sandy Rosario Giants 0.12
123 Anthony Swarzak Twins 0.11
124 Luis Ayala – – – 0.11
125 Ross Wolf Rangers 0.10
126 Scott Rice Mets 0.10
127 Andrew Bailey Red Sox 0.09
128 LaTroy Hawkins Mets 0.09
129 Pat Neshek Athletics 0.09
130 Aaron Crow Royals 0.08
131 Cesar Ramos Rays 0.08
132 Mike Dunn Marlins 0.08
133 Oliver Perez Mariners 0.08
134 Mariano Rivera Yankees 0.07
135 Joe Kelly Cardinals 0.06
136 Matt Lindstrom White Sox 0.06
137 Yoervis Medina Mariners 0.05
138 Joe Nathan Rangers 0.04
139 Ryan Webb Marlins 0.04
140 Tim Stauffer Padres 0.04
141 Tyson Ross Padres 0.04
142 Michael Kohn Angels 0.03
143 Rafael Soriano Nationals 0.03
144 Carter Capps Mariners 0.02
145 Dan Jennings Marlins 0.02
146 Burke Badenhop Brewers 0.01
147 Matt Guerrier – – – 0.01
148 Adam Ottavino Rockies 0.00
149 Ryan Pressly Twins 0.00
150 Chris Perez Indians -0.01
151 Dane de la Rosa Angels -0.01
152 Fernando Abad Nationals -0.01
153 Josh Edgin Mets -0.01
154 David Aardsma Mets -0.02
155 Edgmer Escalona Rockies -0.02
156 Jake McGee Rays -0.02
157 Jerry Blevins Athletics -0.02
158 Troy Patton Orioles -0.02
159 Adam Warren Yankees -0.03
160 Kevin Jepsen Angels -0.03
161 Ronald Belisario Dodgers -0.03
162 Bryan Morris Pirates -0.04
163 James Russell Cubs -0.04
164 Jim Johnson Orioles -0.04
165 Joe Ortiz Rangers -0.05
166 Darren Oliver Blue Jays -0.06
167 Logan Ondrusek Reds -0.08
168 Brad Brach Padres -0.10
169 Huston Street Padres -0.10
170 Manuel Corpas Rockies -0.10
171 Tony Sipp Diamondbacks -0.10
172 Jared Hughes Pirates -0.11
173 Rob Scahill Rockies -0.11
174 Darin Downs Tigers -0.12
175 Esmil Rogers Blue Jays -0.12
176 Tyler Thornburg Brewers -0.12
177 Rich Hill Indians -0.13
178 Phil Coke Tigers -0.16
179 Tom Wilhelmsen Mariners -0.16
180 Luke Putkonen Tigers -0.17
181 Josh Roenicke Twins -0.18
182 Cory Gearrin Braves -0.19
183 Raul Valdes Phillies -0.19
184 Al Alburquerque Tigers -0.20
185 Jose Mijares Giants -0.20
186 Kelvin Herrera Royals -0.20
187 Ramon Troncoso White Sox -0.20
188 Justin De Fratus Phillies -0.21
189 Nick Hagadone Indians -0.21
190 Jonathan Broxton Reds -0.23
191 Scott Atchison Mets -0.24
192 Joba Chamberlain Yankees -0.25
193 Mike Adams Phillies -0.26
194 Drew Storen Nationals -0.27
195 Matt Albers Indians -0.27
196 Vinnie Pestano Indians -0.27
197 A.J. Ramos Marlins -0.28
198 Blake Beavan Mariners -0.28
199 Wesley Wright – – – -0.28
200 Michael Bowden Cubs -0.29
201 Brad Lincoln Blue Jays -0.30
202 Greg Burke Mets -0.30
203 Garrett Richards Angels -0.31
204 Josh Fields Astros -0.31
205 Pedro Strop – – – -0.31
206 Fernando Salas Cardinals -0.33
207 David Hernandez Diamondbacks -0.35
208 George Kontos Giants -0.36
209 Paul Clemens Astros -0.37
210 Kyle Farnsworth Rays -0.39
211 Michael Gonzalez Brewers -0.40
212 T.J. McFarland Orioles -0.40
213 Clayton Mortensen Red Sox -0.41
214 Donnie Veal White Sox -0.41
215 John Axford Brewers -0.42
216 Alex Wilson Red Sox -0.44
217 Travis Blackley Astros -0.45
218 Brandon Lyon Mets -0.48
219 Ian Krol Nationals -0.50
220 Ryan Mattheus Nationals -0.51
221 Bruce Chen Royals -0.54
222 Jose Cisnero Astros -0.58
223 Carlos Marmol – – – -0.59
224 Lucas Luetge Mariners -0.59
225 Jeremy Horst Phillies -0.60
226 Hector Ambriz Astros -0.62
227 Dallas Keuchel Astros -0.63
228 Jeremy Affeldt Giants -0.65
229 Henry Rodriguez – – – -0.71
230 Michael Kirkman Rangers -0.74
231 Hector Rondon Cubs -0.78
232 Brandon League Dodgers -0.88
233 Anthony Bass Padres -0.92
234 Shawn Camp Cubs -1.04
Posted in: MLB Posts, SOEFA | Tagged: , , ,