Tag Archives: MLB

Dynamic Standings Projection (August 14, 2013)

In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.

This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the August 13 games.

14-Aug W L   PreDiff
TB 91 71 0.562 0
BOS 91 71 0.562 14
BAL 87 75 0.537 5
NYY 84 78 0.519 -1
TOR 77 85 0.475 -10
W L   PreDiff
DET 95 67 0.586 1
KC 83 79 0.512 7
CLE 82 80 0.506 11
MIN 71 91 0.438 6
CWS 69 93 0.426 -14
W L   PreDiff
TEX 93 69 0.574 2
OAK 90 72 0.556 6
LAA 77 85 0.475 -11
SEA 75 87 0.463 0
HOU 54 108 0.333 -6
W L   PreDiff
ATL 96 66 0.593 6
WSH 84 78 0.519 -11
NYM 76 86 0.469 -2
PHI 75 87 0.463 -9
MIA 62 100 0.383 -1
W L   PreDiff
STL 92 70 0.568 4
PIT 92 70 0.568 10
CIN 91 71 0.562 -1
MIL 73 89 0.451 -6
CHC 70 92 0.432 2
W L   PreDiff
LAD 92 70 0.568 4
ARZ 83 79 0.512 1
SF 77 85 0.475 -14
SD 75 87 0.463 -3
COL 72 90 0.444 9

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How Was The Game? (August 13, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

One you put on the manager.

White Sox 4, Tigers 3 (11 innings)

The Tigers took an early 1-0 lead on the Sox, but saw it vanish on one ill-conceived pitch from Max Scherzer (24 GS, 164.1 IP, 2.85 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 5.0 WAR) to Avi Garcia and then a strange defensive exchange between Infante and Cabrera that allowed Garcia to score behind the two men he knocked in. Scherzer was relatively comfortable other than those three runs as he finished with 6 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts and looked fine aside from the nightmare play that resulted in 3 runs. The Tigers got men on base all night but took a long time to score them as they scratched across single runs in the 6th and 8th innings to tie, the latter thanks to some wonderful pinch running by Don Kelly. As this one went to extra innings, it was Jim Leyland’s time to give the game away as he called for multiple rally killing bunts and refused to use Joaquin Benoit in a tie game on the road because he was waiting for a save that wasn’t coming. It was the third extra inning game in the last week in which Leyland didn’t use Benoit, and the Tigers lost all three. Maybe they lose them anyway, but you have to give yourself a chance. They’ll try to salvage one on Wednesday behind  Rick Porcello (21 GS, 125 IP, 4.32 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 2.3 WAR).

The Moment: Pena drives in Kelly to tie it in the 8th.

How Was The Game? (August 12, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

A loss, but with one heck of an exclamation mark.

White Sox 6, Tigers 2

The Tigers got to Chris Sale for two early runs courtesy of a Cabrera bomb and a Pena double, but a 3 run 5th inning doomed Doug Fister (24 GS, 155 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.2 WAR) and the Tigers thanks to a couple of goofy plays and some poorly timed control issues from Fister. He didn’t pitched terribly, going 6 innings and allowing 4 runs, but after three strong innings to start the game he played in traffic for most of the night. The bats had a great chance to get to Sale in the 6th as Cabrera and Fielder hit back to back hard singles, but a FC by Martinez and a fly out to the wall in center by Tuiasosopo kept the Tigers from cashing in. The story, however, was a ridiculous play by Jose Iglesias. Here is a link to a video and here is a link to a GIF (h/t @Sporer). Below is a screen shot of the basic concept. It was stupid good.

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The loss is the Tigers 3rd in the last 4 games, but after a stretch where they won 16 of 17, one can’t be too upset. They’ll turn around and send Max Scherzer (23 GS, 158.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.8 WAR) to the mound for game two on Tuesday.

The Moment: Jose Iglesias does something that the author has a difficult time describing.

Victor Martinez’s 2013 Season Explained Graphically

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We’re all pretty clear on the basic structure of Victor Martinez’s 2013 season. His numbers were bad during the first few months and then he started having excellent numbers and now his season long stats are all pretty solid. I argued earlier this season that Martinez was getting supremely unlucky and those claims were supported when Martinez started crushing it.

I’d like to update you on his pace with a few graphics. I don’t have any crack analysis because I’ve already done that part. His numbers were bad, I told you why. His numbers got better, I told you why. Now I just want to show you a full picture with a few graphics. Enjoy!

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First we have his average, on base, and slugging percentage at the end of every game. Since above game 70, he’s been incredible and pulled out of his early season slide:

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If you drop a line at game 70 and split the numbers, he was not very good beforehand and is a borderline MVP after. The cutoff is arbitrary, but there are more than 200 PA on each side. Let’s check out his monthly splits by OPS, wOBA (what’s wOBA?), and wRC+ (what’s wRC+?).

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Like I said in the first citation, his bad luck on hard hit balls is regressing amazingly to the mean in his batting average on balls in play (what’s BABIP?). I drew in his career average to show exactly how amazing it is. Perfect balance:

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Martinez was having bad luck and now he’s not anymore. The two links at the top of the post break it down and these graphs sum it up. Martinez was having a lousy season as far as results went, but then the hits started to fall and he’s come racing back. We always knew they would because he’s been near the top of the hard hit average leaderboard and stands at 6th in MLB entering the day. He’s now having an above average season overall (102 wRC+) and is still on the rise.

How Was The Game? (August 11, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

Something you’re not going to believe.

Yankees 5, Tigers 4

It’s unclear where to start, so let’s just lay it all out. Justin Verlander (25 GS, 158.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.5 WAR) gave up 4 runs in 7 innings, but had a very nice afternoon courtesy of a good fastball and excellent curveball that yielding just 1 walk and induced 9 strikeouts. Verlander gave up two solo homeruns which barely cleared the short fences at Yankee Stadium and would have been easy outs in more parks, so I certainly won’t hold that against him when attempting to discern performance from statistics. The signs were all good regarding his road back to dominance as his average fastball registered 95.3 mph and his release point was in line with his most recent start.

pic4 pic5

 

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The bats failed the Tigers early as they left a ton of men on base and gave away outs at inopportune times, but things turned late. It didn’t help that Iglesias was called out at 2B in the 8th when he was clearly safe or that Jackson made a boneheaded mistake in thinking Garder dropped a ball in the next at bat but a Pena homer to lead off the 8th and a Cabrera homerun off Rivera in the 9th to make it a one run game set up a huge bomb by Martinez to tie it against Rivera for the second time this weekend. It was a great comeback, but it was for naught as Gardner walked off in the 9th. The Tigers will head to the Windy city for a three game set against the Sox with Doug Fister (23 GS, 149 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.2 WAR) getting the ball on Monday.

The Moment: Cabrera and Martinez launch homers in the 9th to stun Rivera.

SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (August 11, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.11. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section.

Rank Player Team SOEFA
1 Carlos Torres Mets 1.14
2 Neal Cotts Rangers 0.99
3 Drew Smyly Tigers 0.97
4 Alex Torres Rays 0.95
5 Greg Holland Royals 0.91
6 Kenley Jansen Dodgers 0.90
7 Joaquin Benoit Tigers 0.82
8 Mark Melancon Pirates 0.81
9 Nick Vincent Padres 0.79
10 Casey Fien Twins 0.78
11 Jesse Crain White Sox 0.78
12 Koji Uehara Red Sox 0.76
13 Jordan Walden Braves 0.72
14 Craig Kimbrel Braves 0.71
15 Jose Veras – – – 0.71
16 Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 0.71
17 Jason Grilli Pirates 0.71
18 Edward Mujica Cardinals 0.68
19 Joe Thatcher – – – 0.67
20 Sean Doolittle Athletics 0.67
21 Casey Janssen Blue Jays 0.66
22 David Robertson Yankees 0.65
23 Javier Lopez Giants 0.64
24 Will Harris Diamondbacks 0.64
25 Sergio Romo Giants 0.63
26 Shawn Kelley Yankees 0.62
27 Glen Perkins Twins 0.59
28 Sam LeCure Reds 0.58
29 Jim Henderson Brewers 0.56
30 Brandon Kintzler Brewers 0.56
31 Manny Parra Reds 0.54
32 Brian Matusz Orioles 0.54
33 Dan Otero Athletics 0.52
34 Andrew Bailey Red Sox 0.52
35 Matt Belisle Rockies 0.52
36 Luke Hochevar Royals 0.51
37 Darren O’Day Orioles 0.51
38 Juan Perez Blue Jays 0.51
39 Trevor Rosenthal Cardinals 0.50
40 Boone Logan Yankees 0.50
41 Paco Rodriguez Dodgers 0.49
42 Preston Claiborne Yankees 0.49
43 Antonio Bastardo Phillies 0.49
44 Seth Maness Cardinals 0.49
45 Junichi Tazawa Red Sox 0.48
46 Tommy Hunter Orioles 0.48
47 Brett Cecil Blue Jays 0.47
48 David Carpenter Braves 0.47
49 Andrew Miller Red Sox 0.47
50 Ryan Cook Athletics 0.45
51 Brad Ziegler Diamondbacks 0.44
52 Bobby Parnell Mets 0.44
53 Joel Peralta Rays 0.44
54 J.P. Howell Dodgers 0.44
55 Matt Reynolds Diamondbacks 0.42
56 Scott Downs – – – 0.41
57 Chad Gaudin Giants 0.41
58 Robbie Ross Rangers 0.41
59 Randy Choate Cardinals 0.40
60 Caleb Thielbar Twins 0.39
61 Luis Avilan Braves 0.38
62 Jason Frasor Rangers 0.38
63 Aroldis Chapman Reds 0.36
64 Vin Mazzaro Pirates 0.36
65 Addison Reed White Sox 0.36
66 Dale Thayer Padres 0.35
67 Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks 0.35
68 Jonathan Papelbon Phillies 0.34
69 Tom Gorzelanny Brewers 0.34
70 Sandy Rosario Giants 0.34
71 Josh Outman Rockies 0.32
72 Oliver Perez Mariners 0.32
73 Tanner Scheppers Rangers 0.32
74 Fernando Abad Nationals 0.32
75 Jared Burton Twins 0.31
76 Nate Jones White Sox 0.31
77 Chad Qualls Marlins 0.31
78 Dan Jennings Marlins 0.30
79 Alfredo Figaro Brewers 0.30
80 Francisco Rodriguez – – – 0.30
81 J.C. Gutierrez – – – 0.30
82 Tyler Clippard Nationals 0.29
83 Alfredo Simon Reds 0.29
84 Steve Delabar Blue Jays 0.28
85 Steve Cishek Marlins 0.27
86 Heath Bell Diamondbacks 0.27
87 Tony Watson Pirates 0.26
88 Rafael Betancourt Rockies 0.25
89 Santiago Casilla Giants 0.25
90 Jerome Williams Angels 0.25
91 J.J. Hoover Reds 0.24
92 Rafael Soriano Nationals 0.24
93 Kevin Gregg Cubs 0.24
94 Neil Wagner Blue Jays 0.24
95 Craig Breslow Red Sox 0.23
96 Cody Allen Indians 0.22
97 Jim Johnson Orioles 0.21
98 Jose Mijares Giants 0.20
99 Tim Collins Royals 0.20
100 Luke Gregerson Padres 0.19
101 James Russell Cubs 0.19
102 Aaron Loup Blue Jays 0.18
103 Pat Neshek Athletics 0.16
104 Aaron Crow Royals 0.15
105 Matt Thornton – – – 0.15
106 Jamey Wright Rays 0.15
107 Michael Kohn Angels 0.15
108 Danny Farquhar Mariners 0.15
109 David Aardsma Mets 0.14
110 Jean Machi Giants 0.14
111 Rex Brothers Rockies 0.13
112 Kevin Jepsen Angels 0.12
113 Jeanmar Gomez Pirates 0.12
114 Anthony Varvaro Braves 0.12
115 Mike Dunn Marlins 0.12
116 Bryan Morris Pirates 0.11
117 LaTroy Hawkins Mets 0.11
118 Darren Oliver Blue Jays 0.10
119 Justin Wilson Pirates 0.10
120 Ross Wolf Rangers 0.10
121 Charlie Furbush Mariners 0.10
122 Yoervis Medina Mariners 0.08
123 Anthony Swarzak Twins 0.08
124 Joe Smith Indians 0.08
125 Mariano Rivera Yankees 0.07
126 Ernesto Frieri Angels 0.06
127 Adam Ottavino Rockies 0.06
128 Joe Kelly Cardinals 0.06
129 Wilton Lopez Rockies 0.05
130 Craig Stammen Nationals 0.04
131 Tyson Ross Padres 0.04
132 J.J. Putz Diamondbacks 0.04
133 Burke Badenhop Brewers 0.04
134 Bryan Shaw Indians 0.04
135 A.J. Ramos Marlins 0.04
136 Jesse Chavez Athletics 0.04
137 Carter Capps Mariners 0.02
138 Fernando Rodney Rays 0.02
139 Joe Nathan Rangers 0.01
140 Dane de la Rosa Angels 0.01
141 Matt Guerrier – – – 0.00
142 Scott Rice Mets 0.00
143 Cesar Ramos Rays 0.00
144 Ryan Webb Marlins 0.00
145 Josh Edgin Mets -0.01
146 Jared Hughes Pirates -0.02
147 Ryan Pressly Twins -0.03
148 Joe Ortiz Rangers -0.04
149 Brian Duensing Twins -0.06
150 Troy Patton Orioles -0.06
151 Edgmer Escalona Rockies -0.06
152 Blake Parker Cubs -0.06
153 Matt Lindstrom White Sox -0.06
154 Chris Perez Indians -0.07
155 Jerry Blevins Athletics -0.07
156 Rich Hill Indians -0.08
157 Greg Burke Mets -0.09
158 Jake Diekman Phillies -0.09
159 Brad Lincoln Blue Jays -0.09
160 Brad Brach Padres -0.10
161 Tony Sipp Diamondbacks -0.10
162 Darin Downs Tigers -0.11
163 Josh Roenicke Twins -0.12
164 Logan Ondrusek Reds -0.13
165 Ross Ohlendorf Nationals -0.14
166 Phil Coke Tigers -0.15
167 Luke Putkonen Tigers -0.17
168 Tim Stauffer Padres -0.18
169 Jake McGee Rays -0.18
170 Wesley Wright Astros -0.19
171 Cory Gearrin Braves -0.19
172 Ronald Belisario Dodgers -0.20
173 Nick Hagadone Indians -0.21
174 Jonathan Broxton Reds -0.21
175 Ian Krol Nationals -0.21
176 Ramon Troncoso White Sox -0.21
177 Huston Street Padres -0.22
178 Manuel Corpas Rockies -0.24
179 Ryan Mattheus Nationals -0.25
180 Kelvin Herrera Royals -0.25
181 Vinnie Pestano Indians -0.26
182 Blake Beavan Mariners -0.27
183 Grant Balfour Athletics -0.27
184 Tom Wilhelmsen Mariners -0.29
185 Michael Gonzalez Brewers -0.29
186 John Axford Brewers -0.30
187 Raul Valdes Phillies -0.30
188 Garrett Richards Angels -0.30
189 Fernando Salas Cardinals -0.33
190 Scott Atchison Mets -0.34
191 T.J. McFarland Orioles -0.35
192 David Hernandez Diamondbacks -0.35
193 Pedro Strop – – – -0.36
194 Drew Storen Nationals -0.36
195 Paul Clemens Astros -0.36
196 George Kontos Giants -0.36
197 Michael Bowden Cubs -0.37
198 Kyle Farnsworth Rays -0.38
199 Matt Albers Indians -0.38
200 Joba Chamberlain Yankees -0.38
201 Al Alburquerque Tigers -0.39
202 Mike Adams Phillies -0.40
203 Clayton Mortensen Red Sox -0.41
204 Justin De Fratus Phillies -0.43
205 Travis Blackley Astros -0.44
206 Alex Wilson Red Sox -0.45
207 Dallas Keuchel Astros -0.48
208 Brandon Lyon Mets -0.49
209 Esmil Rogers Blue Jays -0.49
210 Bruce Chen Royals -0.54
211 Jose Cisnero Astros -0.57
212 Jeremy Horst Phillies -0.60
213 Hector Ambriz Astros -0.62
214 Jeremy Affeldt Giants -0.65
215 Josh Fields Astros -0.66
216 Lucas Luetge Mariners -0.66
217 Adam Warren Yankees -0.68
218 Henry Rodriguez – – – -0.71
219 Michael Kirkman Rangers -0.73
220 Carlos Marmol – – – -0.81
221 Hector Rondon Cubs -0.82
222 Brandon League Dodgers -0.88
223 Anthony Bass Padres -0.91
224 Shawn Camp Cubs -1.04

More Exciting News From New English D

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

So I know we just went through this three days ago, but I’m excited to announce that I’ve joined Gammons Daily as a regular contributor, which is a site surrounding Peter Gammons’ baseball writing and devoted to unfiltered analysis from some of the country’s best. It’s only a couple weeks old and is a partnership between Gammons and TruMedia that should eventually feature some of their analytic tools. I’ll be writing there once or twice a week in addition to my weekly work at Beyond The Box Score. Like I said on Thursday, none of New English D’s Tigers coverage will be affected and you’ll only notice a slight reduction in MLB coverage here to accommodate the transition.

I hope you’ll check out Gammons Daily, follow my work around the web, and continue to engage with me on Twitter. Check out my first piece for the site, on the Tigers own Max Scherzer.

How Was The Game? (August 10, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

Another breezy win.

Tigers 9, Yankees 3

After surrendering their 12 game winning streak on Friday in extra innings, the Tigers handled the Yankees easily on Saturday. They won the war on both fronts as Anibal Sanchez (20 GS, 125.2 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 4.2 WAR) was excellent across 7 innings (4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K) and the bats sent Hughes to the showers early. The Tigers first three hitters all homered during the game and 5 players reached base at least twice. Jackson stayed hot, Cabrera stayed hot, and Hunter, Kelly, and Iglesias also did things that improved the team’s chances of winning. It was never really in doubt as the Tigers won their 17th game in their last 19 tries and improved to 69-46 on the season. They will look to take the series on Sunday with the newly himself Justin Verlander (24 GS, 151.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.5 WAR), who lowered his ERA between starts thanks to a scoring change.

The Moment: Cabrera turned on a Hughes pitch and sent it out to left field.

The Nine Best Baseball People To Follow On Twitter

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

The headline covers most of what the following post will be. But I’ll make a few quick points. Baseball is fun and it’s a lot of fun to follow along and interact with people on Twitter about it. The following list has a few rules. First, these are not people you follow for news. Ken Rosenthal breaks lots of stories, but this list is about people who you follow because of their interesting commentary, not their ability as a reporter. Current players are also not eligible. Second, the account doesn’t have to reflect a person but it can’t be an entity like MLB or ESPN. Three, I’m not listing anyone I have a professional affiliation with. It wouldn’t really matter because this is a fun list and I can’t imagine anyone finding a way to profit from this, but it just felt more ethical. Finally, these accounts are being judged only by baseball tweeting. No points for your literature or food tweeting. Both quality and quantity are considered. Just like “Whose Line Is It Anyway?” everything is made up and the points don’t matter.

Honorable Mention. Batting Stance Guy

On the list for humor. I don’t follow him, but got some recommendations to put him on the list and I’m all about listening:

9. Keith Law

Law is pretty popular for his “snark” and hilarious ability to retweet people who don’t know the difference between your and you’re, but he’s worth a follow because he provides solid baseball commentary in most cases and it well informed on prospects. Mostly, his invention of #umpshow is reason enough.

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/364934374589870080

8. Heard on MLB Tonight

This is the designated Twitter account for pointing out hilariously off base baseball commentary.

https://twitter.com/HeardOnMLBT/status/365209714885271552

7. MLB Fake Rumors

This is a great play on MLB Trade Rumors. Their only failure is that they don’t tweet often enough.

6. Mark Simon

Simon posts a ton of statistical breakdowns and tidbits and is great about looking into advanced data for followers.

5. Dave Cameron

Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs and is just an excellent baseball analyst.

4. Can Predict Ball

These guys tweet when something hilariously predictable happens. Must follow.

3. Brian Kenny

Kenny is the mainstream media’s sabermetric champion and does a nice job providing commentary and taking people to task for not opening their minds.

https://twitter.com/MrBrianKenny/status/365670704982671360

2. Jeff Sullivan

Sullivan makes excellent observations about baseball, but is also supremely funny and always tweets what I’m thinking about national writers who tweet silly rumors.

1. You Can’t Predict Ball

They tweet when unpredictable things happen, which is just about the best thing about baseball.

How Was The Game? (August 9, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

The end of a great run.

Yankees 4, Tigers 3 (10 innings)

It had to end sometime. Logic dictated that. You can’t win every game and the longer your streak goes the more improbable it gets. After 12 straight victories and a figurative funeral for the rest of the division, the Tigers finally lost on Friday. Rick Porcello (21 GS, 125 IP, 4.32 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 2.3 WAR) was solid, and a Robinson Cano double on a pretty good changeup was the difference between a very good start and a pretty good one. He only went 5 innings but struck out 6, walked 2, and surrendered 3 runs. On most nights, that’s good enough for the Tigers offense but Ivan Nova escaped a few jams against the Tigers, who only cashed in with the starter in the game during the 7th inning on a Cabrera single. Jackson had a good night, but the Tigers simply didn’t get hits with men on base, which is going to happen from time to time and especially when you’ve just completed the type of run the Tigers went on. It got extremely interesting, however, when Miguel Cabrera launched a 2 out, 2 run, game-tying homerun to dead center off Rivera and sent the game into extras. Despite the amazing turn of events, the Yankees rallied against Alburquerque in the 10th while Benoit sat alone in the bullpen waiting for a save that would never come. The streak is over, but the Tigers have still won 16 of their last 18 games and saw the Indians fall on the out of town scoreboard so they will remain 7 up in the Central with 48 to play. They’ll play a matinee at Yankee Stadium with Anibal Sanchez (19 GS, 118.2 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 4.1 WAR) on the bump.

The Moment: Cabrera hits a game tying homerun with two outs in the 9th against Mariano Rivera