Updated Tigers Starters WATCH Scores
Last month, I invented WATCH, New English D’s meaningless rankings of which starters on the team are most fun to watch. Below is the original description, followed by updated rankings:
Among the things we love at New English D are the Detroit Tigers, starting pitching, math, and nonsensical rankings. This post will combine all three in glorious fashion. I’ve often thought about doing something like this because I’ve always had my own rankings of which starters I enjoyed watching the most. If you’re familiar with this site, I’m not just a fan of great pitching, I’m a fan of certain kinds of pitching. The rankings below reflect that. This is meant to be fun.
Among the factors considered here are how deep a pitcher pitches into games, strikeouts, walks, ground balls, first pitch strikes, and how quickly they work. Each number is compared to the team average (not league average) and added together with all six categories weighted equally. Hat tip to Carson Cistulli of Fangraphs for inspiring the idea with his NERD scores.
As August 15, the 2013 Tigers WATCH List looks like this:
5. Justin Verlander
4. Rick Porcello
3. Anibal Sanchez
2. Max Scherzer
1. Doug Fister
Enjoy the double-header and check back for two editions of How Was The Game?!
How Was The Game? (August 15, 2013)
One that felt like the stretch run.
Tigers 4, Royals 1
There’s something about playing the Royals on a later summer night that seems to make everything official. This is what it feels like to close in on a title. It’s entirely subjective, but this homestand is the de facto beginning of the end and the Tigers started it out nicely with 7.1, 1 run innings from Anibal Sanchez (21 GS, 133 IP, 2.50 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 4.5 WAR) who continued to roll past AL offenses with five strikeouts and one walk. Fielder gave the Tigers the lead with a much needed 2 run homer in the first and the Tigers added two more in the 5th to put it out of reach. The Tigers had some trouble running the bases, but Dirks highlighted the offensive attack with 4 hits while filling in at the top for Jackson. The Royals entered the series trailing the Tigers by 7.5 games and after the first of five are already watching that number rise. The Tigers will play two tomorrow with Justin Verlander (25 GS, 158.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.5 WAR) taking the ball in the day game and Jose Alvarez (4 GS, 19.2 IP, 5.03 ERA, 5.99 FIP, -0.2 WAR) getting the call for the nightcap.
The Moment: Fielder leaves the yard for the first time in a long while.
Miguel Cabrera Does Not Respect Inside Pitches
I’m not the first person to point this out, so don’t give me all the credit, but Miguel Cabrera is a really good hitter who destroys the baseball pretty much anywhere it’s pitched. But this year, he’s crushing the inside pitch. He’s always been good, but this year we’re seeing a ton of homeruns on pitches that most hitters literally couldn’t even foul off. Let’s take a look.
Here are his 38 HR so far with an approximate strikezone from the catcher’s perspective measured in feet:
Most of them have been in the zone, but there have been a handful that were way off the plate. Six to be precise. You’ll notice two that were just off the plate, but those seem human. The other six don’t. What do we know about those homeruns?
They were all fastballs.
None of them had more than 7.5 inches of horizontal movement.
They all came when the count was even or Cabrera was behind.
The slowest was 91 MPH, the fastest was 96 MPH.
Five went to left field, one went to center field.
What have we learned from this demonstration? Probably something we already should have known. You can’t get Cabrera out inside and you especially can’t do with with run of the mill fastballs even when you’re ahead in the count. I looked at how you might try to get him out earlier this season and my advice was hard stuff up and away and breaking balls down and away. You have to make him chase, you can’t jam him inside because he can apparently hit homeruns on pitches two feet from the center of the plate.
But I was also curious if this was new for Cabrera. I don’t remember him hitting this many homeruns on inside pitches, which poses the question, “is he getting better?” Let’s take a look at all of his homeruns from 2008-2012:
Apparently, this isn’t terribly new for Cabrera. We might be noticing it more, but he’s been doing it forever even if he is a few ahead of his pace in 2013. Of the 16 pitches that he hit out from 2008-2012 on inside pitches, all of them were fastballs. None of them above 96 and only four came with Cabrera ahead in the count. I’m starting to see a pattern here.
If we do a quick search of every homerun that was off the plate inside to righties (not just the really far inside ones), Cabrera leads baseball by a ton. He has 53 homeruns on pitches off the plate inside since 2008, the next closest RHH is Ryan Zimmerman with 31.
In fact, his homerun against Phil Hughes last Saturday was the furthest inside pitch to be hit out by a righty since Pitch F/X started recording the data. In fact of the 11 most inside pitches hit out by righties since 2008, 6 of them are Miguel Cabrera. Now some of that is selection bias because he’s hit the most homeruns, but 6 of 11 is way of out proportion. He’s a monster.
And he also does this. (Click to play if it doesn’t run automatically on your browser).
Editor’s Note: For more on this subject, the great Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs published a piece with the same premise less than a minute after this post went live. A lot of cool images and GIFs, go read it.
How Was The Game? (August 14, 2013)
A nice recovery.
Tigers 6, White Sox 4
After a few days of coming up short and a bad start to this one, the Tigers recovered nicely to win the final game of the series against the Sox. Rick Porcello (22 GS, 131 IP, 4.33 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 2.5 WAR) didn’t have a great first inning and had to pitch around 2 infield hits, but settled down nicely after the 3 run first and allowed no additional runs. He gave the Tigers 6 and allowed 3, while striking out 4 and walking 1. The Tigers scored in bunches today as Cabrera knocked a 3 run HR in the 3rd and the Tigers scored 3 in the 6th on an RBI single and then a horrible defensive play by the White Sox cornermen. Porcello gave way to the pen for the final three, who managed to keep the Sox from rallying back and sent the Tigers to win #70 on the season and a 6-4 road trip. In fact, Leyland called on Benoit for a five out save in a stunning turn from his refusal to use him in a tie game 3 times in the previous 5 days. The Tigers will return home for a five game series against the Royals in which they will have a shot to put some series distance between them in the Central. They will send Anibal Sanchez (24 GS, 164.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 4.2 WAR) to the mound for the first game on Thursday evening.
The Moment: Cabrera ties it with a no doubter to left.
Dynamic Standings Projection (August 14, 2013)
In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the August 13 games.
| 14-Aug | W | L | PreDiff | |
| TB | 91 | 71 | 0.562 | 0 |
| BOS | 91 | 71 | 0.562 | 14 |
| BAL | 87 | 75 | 0.537 | 5 |
| NYY | 84 | 78 | 0.519 | -1 |
| TOR | 77 | 85 | 0.475 | -10 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| DET | 95 | 67 | 0.586 | 1 |
| KC | 83 | 79 | 0.512 | 7 |
| CLE | 82 | 80 | 0.506 | 11 |
| MIN | 71 | 91 | 0.438 | 6 |
| CWS | 69 | 93 | 0.426 | -14 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| TEX | 93 | 69 | 0.574 | 2 |
| OAK | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | 6 |
| LAA | 77 | 85 | 0.475 | -11 |
| SEA | 75 | 87 | 0.463 | 0 |
| HOU | 54 | 108 | 0.333 | -6 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| ATL | 96 | 66 | 0.593 | 6 |
| WSH | 84 | 78 | 0.519 | -11 |
| NYM | 76 | 86 | 0.469 | -2 |
| PHI | 75 | 87 | 0.463 | -9 |
| MIA | 62 | 100 | 0.383 | -1 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| STL | 92 | 70 | 0.568 | 4 |
| PIT | 92 | 70 | 0.568 | 10 |
| CIN | 91 | 71 | 0.562 | -1 |
| MIL | 73 | 89 | 0.451 | -6 |
| CHC | 70 | 92 | 0.432 | 2 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| LAD | 92 | 70 | 0.568 | 4 |
| ARZ | 83 | 79 | 0.512 | 1 |
| SF | 77 | 85 | 0.475 | -14 |
| SD | 75 | 87 | 0.463 | -3 |
| COL | 72 | 90 | 0.444 | 9 |
How Was The Game? (August 13, 2013)
One you put on the manager.
White Sox 4, Tigers 3 (11 innings)
The Tigers took an early 1-0 lead on the Sox, but saw it vanish on one ill-conceived pitch from Max Scherzer (24 GS, 164.1 IP, 2.85 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 5.0 WAR) to Avi Garcia and then a strange defensive exchange between Infante and Cabrera that allowed Garcia to score behind the two men he knocked in. Scherzer was relatively comfortable other than those three runs as he finished with 6 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts and looked fine aside from the nightmare play that resulted in 3 runs. The Tigers got men on base all night but took a long time to score them as they scratched across single runs in the 6th and 8th innings to tie, the latter thanks to some wonderful pinch running by Don Kelly. As this one went to extra innings, it was Jim Leyland’s time to give the game away as he called for multiple rally killing bunts and refused to use Joaquin Benoit in a tie game on the road because he was waiting for a save that wasn’t coming. It was the third extra inning game in the last week in which Leyland didn’t use Benoit, and the Tigers lost all three. Maybe they lose them anyway, but you have to give yourself a chance. They’ll try to salvage one on Wednesday behind Rick Porcello (21 GS, 125 IP, 4.32 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 2.3 WAR).
The Moment: Pena drives in Kelly to tie it in the 8th.
10 Facts About Miguel Cabrera’s Amazing Season
I’m beyond analyzing Miguel Cabrera. His offensive ability is so good that it is boring. There’s nothing left for me to say. He’s off the charts incredible. Clearly the best hitter of the moment, and starting to push his way into conversations with the words “era,” “generation,” and “ever.” You know the drill. Let’s consider his amazing 2013 season. All statistics as of the start of play on August 13.
1. By Weighted Runs Created Plus or wRC+ (what’s wRC+?), Cabrera is having the 15th best offensive season in baseball history. Every player on the list ahead of him is an inner circle Hall of Famer or is Barry Bonds. Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Hornsby, and Mantle are the only players in history with even one season of 210 wRC+ or better.
2. Cabrera is having the best offensive season of his career by far, obviously, but did you know it’s 33% better than his previous high and 44% better than the year he won the Triple Crown?
3. This is the best offensive season in Tigers history, besting Cobb’s 1910 by 4%.
4. Miguel Cabrera is having the 2nd worst defensive season in his career by UZR (what’s UZR?), but is still already a half a win better by WAR (what’s WAR?) than his previous high despite there being 45 games left in the season.
5. Using Weighted On Base Average (what’s wOBA?), because it’s easier for me to calculate, if everyone else in the league stayed on their current pace, Cabrera would have to go 0 for his next 50 in order for Chris Davis to catch him. If Cabrera didn’t get a hit in the next 12 games, he’d still be the best hitter in the league.
6. Cabrera could go 0 for his next 25 and still have a higher OBP than Joey Votto has right now. Votto has baseball’s second best OBP.
7. If Cabrera went 0 for his next 70, he would still be second in baseball in slugging percentage.
8. The ZIPS projection system estimates Cabrera will get 185 more plate appearances before the season is over. If he made an out during every one of them he would still have the 39th best OPS in the league at .812. The only players on the Tigers with an .812 OPS or better right now besides Cabrera are Peralta (.822 in 436 PA), Tuiasosopo (.919 in 144 PA), and Doug Fister (1.333 in 4 PA).
9. Cabrera currently has the best batting average of his career by 22 points, best OBP by 9 points, and bests SLG by 70 points. He’s 8 HR shy of setting a new career high. Since the start of 2009, he leads baseball in HR, R, RBI, AVG, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, and WAR. He trails Votto by .009 in OBP.
10. Among players with fewer than 7,000 career plate appearances only 6 have more career WAR than Cabrera.
| Name | G | PA | WAR |
| Hank Greenberg | 1394 | 6096 | 61.1 |
| Joe Gordon | 1566 | 6536 | 60.6 |
| Joe Jackson | 1332 | 5690 | 60.5 |
| Frank Baker | 1575 | 6660 | 60.1 |
| Jackie Robinson | 1382 | 5802 | 57.2 |
| Elmer Flick | 1483 | 6414 | 56.0 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 1621 | 6964 | 55.2 |
By wRC+, Miguel Cabrera is the 25 best hitter in baseball history at 153 for his career.
How Was The Game? (August 12, 2013)
A loss, but with one heck of an exclamation mark.
White Sox 6, Tigers 2
The Tigers got to Chris Sale for two early runs courtesy of a Cabrera bomb and a Pena double, but a 3 run 5th inning doomed Doug Fister (24 GS, 155 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.2 WAR) and the Tigers thanks to a couple of goofy plays and some poorly timed control issues from Fister. He didn’t pitched terribly, going 6 innings and allowing 4 runs, but after three strong innings to start the game he played in traffic for most of the night. The bats had a great chance to get to Sale in the 6th as Cabrera and Fielder hit back to back hard singles, but a FC by Martinez and a fly out to the wall in center by Tuiasosopo kept the Tigers from cashing in. The story, however, was a ridiculous play by Jose Iglesias. Here is a link to a video and here is a link to a GIF (h/t @Sporer). Below is a screen shot of the basic concept. It was stupid good.
The loss is the Tigers 3rd in the last 4 games, but after a stretch where they won 16 of 17, one can’t be too upset. They’ll turn around and send Max Scherzer (23 GS, 158.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.8 WAR) to the mound for game two on Tuesday.
The Moment: Jose Iglesias does something that the author has a difficult time describing.
Victor Martinez’s 2013 Season Explained Graphically
We’re all pretty clear on the basic structure of Victor Martinez’s 2013 season. His numbers were bad during the first few months and then he started having excellent numbers and now his season long stats are all pretty solid. I argued earlier this season that Martinez was getting supremely unlucky and those claims were supported when Martinez started crushing it.
I’d like to update you on his pace with a few graphics. I don’t have any crack analysis because I’ve already done that part. His numbers were bad, I told you why. His numbers got better, I told you why. Now I just want to show you a full picture with a few graphics. Enjoy!
First we have his average, on base, and slugging percentage at the end of every game. Since above game 70, he’s been incredible and pulled out of his early season slide:
If you drop a line at game 70 and split the numbers, he was not very good beforehand and is a borderline MVP after. The cutoff is arbitrary, but there are more than 200 PA on each side. Let’s check out his monthly splits by OPS, wOBA (what’s wOBA?), and wRC+ (what’s wRC+?).
Like I said in the first citation, his bad luck on hard hit balls is regressing amazingly to the mean in his batting average on balls in play (what’s BABIP?). I drew in his career average to show exactly how amazing it is. Perfect balance:
Martinez was having bad luck and now he’s not anymore. The two links at the top of the post break it down and these graphs sum it up. Martinez was having a lousy season as far as results went, but then the hits started to fall and he’s come racing back. We always knew they would because he’s been near the top of the hard hit average leaderboard and stands at 6th in MLB entering the day. He’s now having an above average season overall (102 wRC+) and is still on the rise.
How Was The Game? (August 11, 2013)
Something you’re not going to believe.
Yankees 5, Tigers 4
It’s unclear where to start, so let’s just lay it all out. Justin Verlander (25 GS, 158.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.5 WAR) gave up 4 runs in 7 innings, but had a very nice afternoon courtesy of a good fastball and excellent curveball that yielding just 1 walk and induced 9 strikeouts. Verlander gave up two solo homeruns which barely cleared the short fences at Yankee Stadium and would have been easy outs in more parks, so I certainly won’t hold that against him when attempting to discern performance from statistics. The signs were all good regarding his road back to dominance as his average fastball registered 95.3 mph and his release point was in line with his most recent start.
The bats failed the Tigers early as they left a ton of men on base and gave away outs at inopportune times, but things turned late. It didn’t help that Iglesias was called out at 2B in the 8th when he was clearly safe or that Jackson made a boneheaded mistake in thinking Garder dropped a ball in the next at bat but a Pena homer to lead off the 8th and a Cabrera homerun off Rivera in the 9th to make it a one run game set up a huge bomb by Martinez to tie it against Rivera for the second time this weekend. It was a great comeback, but it was for naught as Gardner walked off in the 9th. The Tigers will head to the Windy city for a three game set against the Sox with Doug Fister (23 GS, 149 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.2 WAR) getting the ball on Monday.
The Moment: Cabrera and Martinez launch homers in the 9th to stun Rivera.
New English D 