The Morning Edition (July 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale goes the distances, allows 1 R, and loses to the Royals (#KillTheWin) as Davis, Coleman, and Holland blank the Sox
- Bourn hits a leadoff HR against Darvish, no one else scores as Masterson out duels Yu
- Nova goes 7, gives up 1 R, but Archer outshines with a CGSO
- The Braves win a close one against the Cards with 2 in the 8th
- 3 Nats HR back Haren over the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Rays try to stay hot behind Moore (1p Eastern)
- Cole and Fernandez hook up in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Corbin welcomes the Padres to Chase (4p Eastern)
- Miller and Medlen on ESPN (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are there going to be any deadline deals?
Despite what Heyman, Rosenthal, Olney, and Morosi are telling you there doesn’t seem to be any traffic on the trade market. We’ve had some low profile deals including Feldman and Nolasco and the Cubs did move Garza, but it doesn’t look like a flurry of deals are coming because the teams that are due to sell aren’t budging. The Jays, Royals, Phils, Angels, and Mariners are out of it but not ready to commit. Once that happens we could have some deals, but the second wild card is keeping a lot of teams in it. Peavy’s probably going to move, but now that we’re five days from the deadline I’m actually willing to talk about trades. Trade speculation is boring, but real trades are interesting and if we’re going to get a few, they’ll be coming soon. It’s important to remember that trades can only have a small impact on a team’s chances because there are only 50-55 games left after the deadline comes. You have to replace a terrible player with a great one to gain more than a win or two.
Getting Ahead with Wainwright and Moore
If you’re interested in non-Tigers analysis, I’ve got a post up in the Community Research section at FanGraphs comparing the seasons of Adam Wainwright and Matt Moore so far in 2013 focusing on the nearly identical rate with which their pitches hit the strikezone despite their wildly different walk rates. If you’re interesting in pitching, and especially the strategy involved, I hope you’ll check it out. Plenty of New English D style graphics, too.
The Nine Worst One Inning Saves in MLB History
At New English D we’re very critical of the save statistic because not only does it not reflect actual performance, but it has also affected the way managers actually use their bullpens. Managers chase saves which results in using their best relievers in the wrong situations. I won’t rehash the problems, but you can check out the whole rationale in the bullpen section of our Stat Primer page.
What I’d like to do is identify the The Nine Worst One Inning Saves in MLB History. Below you’ll find a list of the most ridiculous appearances in which a reliever was credited with a “save.” The argument here is that a three up three down inning with 3 strikeouts results in a save and is valued identically to these appearances in the save column.
In order to gather this list, I sorted every save since the stat became official in the late ’60s by the number of baserunners allowed after deleting runners who reached via errors. After that I sorted by walks and dropped out anyone who induced a double play in order to leave me with nine. From there, I broke any ties by sorting by the number of times each pitcher missed the strike zone. The only reason I was hunting for nine is because this is part of our The Nine series. A list of 11 or 13 would make the same point. I was just trying to find the absolute worst 1 inning saves in history. Let’s do it. Each of these appearances are 1 inning saves with 5 total baserunners:
| Rank | Player | Date | Tm | H | ER | BB | SO |
| 9 | Billy Koch | 9/27/2002 | OAK | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Todd Jones | 5/19/2007 | DET | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | Bobby Jenks | 9/29/2006 | CHW | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Trevor Hoffman | 4/3/2002 | SDP | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Bryan Harvey | 6/25/1989 | CAL | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Brad Lidge | 7/26/2010 | PHI | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | Jeff Brantley | 5/21/2000 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Joel Hanrahan | 9/15/2012 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | Sergio Santos | 9/26/2011 | CHW | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
You’ll notice most of these are quite recent. Managers didn’t used to only call on pitchers for one inning saves and they used to pull relievers who pitched terribly before things got this bad. All of these pitchers earned a save for these performances. If you can get a save for pitching like this, how much is a save really worth?
The Morning Edition (July 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tribe blows a big lead, but Ryan Raburn walks off to save them in the 11th
- Minor out pitches Wainwright in a 4-1 win for the Braves
- Rays shell CC, move into first place
- The Royals finally cash in on a great start for Shields, beat the Sox
- Huge 7th inning bails out Dickey in Toronto
- Mets dominate the Nats in game one, but waster Harvey’s gem in game two as Zimmerman walks off
- Chatwood strikes out 11 Brewers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish faces Masterson in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale faces the Royals (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner welcomes the Cubs to AT&T (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you feel about Ryan Raburn?
Raburn hit a big 3 run walk off homerun on Friday, improving his season numbers to .273/.371/.533, good for a 153 wRC+ in 186 PA. He is now the Indians second best position player with 2.0 WAR which ties his career high for an entire season. I’ve always loved Raburn because he has the biggest range of possible outcomes of any human being I’ve ever seen. It’s equally likely that he hits 3 HR in a game as it is that he falls down the dugout steps and injures Jason Kipnis. He hits huge homeruns and makes the more untimely mistakes. There’s something quite compelling about that in my book. He’s also playing above average defense and walking 11.8% of the time. This guy.
The Morning Edition (July 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Buehrle gets a 2 H, 2 BB, CGSO against the Astros
- Marlins win as Eovaldi and Nicasio combine for 13 shutout innings, but neither factor in the decision as both teams score late
- Kuroda goes 7 scoreless to lead the Yanks past Holland and the Rangers
- The Nationals cough one up to the Pirates, but Harper rallies back to walk off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jordan Zimmerman welcomes the Mets in Game 1, Harvey goes in Game 2 (130p/7p Eastern)
- Newly minted ground ball machince John Lackey takes on the O’s (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Minor in ATL (7p Eastern)
- Homer Bailey meets Clayton Kershaw (10p Eastern)
- Felix gets the Twins (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s a good sign a player’s breakout is real?
Edwin Encarnacion has really improved his stock in the last couple of seasons with the power, but the K% is coming down really nicely. There aren’t many big power bats who don’t strikeout more often than this:
The Morning Edition (July 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Strasburg goes 8, allows 1 R on 2 H/0 BB/12 K, but loses despite a 4-2 final score…yeah…think about that…#KillTheWin
- Price goes the distance on 97 pitches to lead the Rays over the Sox
- Santana pitches well, but the Royals need a walk off to beat the O’s
- Garza is superb in his Rangers debut, beats the Yanks 3-1
- Braves beat the Mets but lose Hudson to a broken ankle
- Dodgers get 5 in the 10th to beat the Jays
- Kamzir helps the Indians pummel the M’s
- The Angels blank the Twins, 1-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wood and Wheeler in NY (1230p Eastern)
- Burnett faces Gio (1230p Eastern)
- Kuroda takes on Holland (2p Eastern)
- Latos goes against Greinke (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are the Royals even a self-aware entity at this point?
Apparently, the Royals who are 47-51, 8 GB, and have no reason to expect they will play better, are considering buying at the deadline despite it being a seller’s market. Additionally, they are considering upgrading in right field. I wonder if the Rays would part with Wil Myers? I legitimately feel pain for Royals fans. This is embarrassing.
Dynamic Standings Projection (July 24, 2013)
In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the July 23 games.
| 24-Jul | W | L | PreDiff | |
| TB | 93 | 69 | 0.574 | 2 |
| BOS | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | 13 |
| BAL | 88 | 74 | 0.543 | 6 |
| NYY | 86 | 76 | 0.531 | 1 |
| TOR | 79 | 83 | 0.488 | -8 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| DET | 92 | 70 | 0.568 | -2 |
| CLE | 79 | 83 | 0.488 | 8 |
| KC | 76 | 86 | 0.469 | 0 |
| CWS | 72 | 90 | 0.444 | -11 |
| MIN | 69 | 93 | 0.426 | 4 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| TEX | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | -1 |
| OAK | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | 6 |
| LAA | 81 | 81 | 0.500 | -7 |
| SEA | 77 | 85 | 0.475 | 2 |
| HOU | 57 | 105 | 0.352 | -3 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| ATL | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | 0 |
| WSH | 84 | 78 | 0.519 | -11 |
| PHI | 81 | 81 | 0.500 | -3 |
| NYM | 76 | 86 | 0.469 | -2 |
| MIA | 62 | 100 | 0.383 | -1 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| STL | 95 | 67 | 0.586 | 7 |
| CIN | 92 | 70 | 0.568 | 0 |
| PIT | 91 | 71 | 0.562 | 9 |
| MIL | 72 | 90 | 0.444 | -7 |
| CHC | 71 | 91 | 0.438 | 3 |
| W | L | PreDiff | ||
| LAD | 86 | 76 | 0.531 | -2 |
| ARZ | 83 | 79 | 0.512 | 1 |
| SF | 81 | 81 | 0.500 | -10 |
| SD | 74 | 88 | 0.457 | -4 |
| COL | 72 | 90 | 0.444 | 9 |
The Morning Edition (July 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Myers and Longoria homer, but the Rays finally lose to the Sox
- Dodgers out slug the Jays, 10-9
- Cole leads the Pirates over the Nats
- Miller gives the Cards 6 scoreless in win over the Phils
- Yanks get two in the 9th to top the Rangers
- A fine start from Fernandez leads the Fish past the Rockies
- Parker and Cosart pitch well in Houston
What I’m Watching Today:
- Liriano and Strasburg face off in DC (7p Eastern)
- Price goes against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Garza makes his Rangers debut in NY (7p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner heads to Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which young NL pitcher, not named Harvey, do you like?
These numbers are fun. After last night, take a look:
| Name | IP | K% | BB% | ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- | WAR |
| Shelby Miller | 110.2 | 26.50% | 6.70% | 76 | 81 | 88 | 2.3 |
| Jose Fernandez | 111.2 | 24.70% | 9.30% | 72 | 84 | 92 | 2.0 |
I was on the Miller bandwagon early, but Fernandez has really impressed me lately. Tough call.
Introducing Tigers Starters Watchability Scores (WATCH)
Among the things we love at New English D are the Detroit Tigers, starting pitching, math, and nonsensical rankings. This post will combine all three in glorious fashion. I’ve often thought about doing something like this because I’ve always had my own rankings of which starters I enjoyed watching the most. If you’re familiar with this site, I’m not just a fan of great pitching, I’m a fan of certain kinds of pitching. The rankings below reflect that. This is meant to be fun.
Among the factors considered here are how deep a pitcher pitches into games, strikeouts, walks, ground balls, first pitch strikes, and how quickly they work. Each number is compared to the team average (not league average) and added together with all six categories weighted equally. Hat tip to Carson Cistulli of Fangraphs for inspiring the idea with his NERD scores.
As July 23, the 2013 Tigers WATCH List looks like this:
5. Justin Verlander
4. Anibal Sanchez
3. Rick Porcello
2. Max Scherzer
1. Doug Fister
If you’re interested, here are the monthly ranks to date:
| Rank | April | May | June | July |
| 5 | Porcello | Verlander | Sanchez | Sanchez |
| 4 | Verlander | Scherzer | Verlander | Verlander |
| 3 | Sanchez | Sanchez | Porcello | Fister |
| 2 | Fister | Fister | Fister | Scherzer |
| 1 | Scherzer | Porcello | Scherzer | Porcello |
Should you be curious about full league WATCH scores, here are the best 10 and worst 10:
| Rank | Name |
| 1 | Adam Wainwright |
| 2 | Matt Harvey |
| 3 | Cliff Lee |
| 4 | Chris Sale |
| 5 | Felix Hernandez |
| 6 | Jordan Zimmermann |
| 7 | Max Scherzer |
| 8 | Hisashi Iwakuma |
| 9 | Doug Fister |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw |
| Rank | Name |
| 80 | Dylan Axelrod |
| 81 | Ryan Dempster |
| 82 | Jeff Locke |
| 83 | Wade Davis |
| 84 | Edinson Volquez |
| 85 | Matt Moore |
| 86 | Ubaldo Jimenez |
| 87 | Lucas Harrell |
| 88 | Barry Zito |
| 89 | Jason Marquis |
Enjoy watching baseball!
The Rick Porcello and John Lackey Connection
If you’re interested pitching, I wrote a post over in the Community Research section of Fangraphs regarding John Lackey’s season and his increase in K% and GB% and decrease in BB% based largely on a modification of a subset of his fastballs. Lackey joins Porcello as the only pitcher in MLB this season with more than 7 K/9, fewer than 2 BB/9, and a GB% above 50%. Felix and Fister are close, but these guys are trying to join a group that includes just Halladay, Carpenter, and Hamels since GB% became available in 2002.
Read all about Lackey at Fangraphs.
If you’re curious about Porcello, who starts tonight, he’s currently at 7.25 K/9, 1.42 BB/9, and 57.3 GB%. All of those numbers are career best and are helping Porcello post a career best 3.51 FIP and 3.05 xFIP. Earlier in the year, I broke down how Porcello is making the leap from solid #5, to legitimate big league star.







