The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
- Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
- Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
- Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
- Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
- Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
- Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
- Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
- Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
- The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Chris Sale have another great outing?
I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.
I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.
How Was The Game? (June 29, 2013)
Another extra inning loss.
Rays 4, Tigers 3 (10 innings)
After a great all-around win on Friday, the Tigers sent Justin Verlander (8-5, 105 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 2.8 WAR) to the hill and while he wasn’t at his best, there were good signs regarding his stuff and his efficiency. He allowed 3 runs (2 earned), but pitched 8 innings for the first time this season to go with 4 BB and 4 K. It wasn’t vintage Verlander, but it was a much more effective version than he’s been the last few times out. The bats offered three runs in the 3rd on a Jackson homerun and a 2 RBI single from Peralta, but the Rays clawed back and tied it in the 8th leaving it up to the bullpens to hammer out a resolution in the 9th inning and beyond. After a lights out 9th from Smyly, the Tigers handed it over to Rondon in the 10th who allowed two baserunners between a flyout and a strikeout, but allowed the game winning hit to Escobar. Should you care to peruse his velocity, here is a handy tweet:
The Tigers will saddle back up Sunday behind Rick Porcello (4-5, 80.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.3 WAR) who will look to lead the Tigers to a series victory.
The Moment: Verlander gets through 8 for the first time this season.
The Nine Best Seasons Under 9 Wins
At New English D we’re among the those who wish to see the pitcher win removed from our baseball consciousness. It doesn’t measure an individual pitcher’s skill, but that’s how people use it. A pitcher’s won-loss record is about his performance, but it’s also about his defense, his run support, the other starting pitcher, and the other team’s offense. Also, luck, but I’m fine with luck.
Our most recent podcast covers the topic at length, but evidence and examples can do more to convince you about the flaws of wins than my rambling ever could. The catalyst for this post comes from something I discovered last night when contributing to Brian Kenny’s noble effort to #KillTheWin:
Matt Harvey (Go Heels!) is better in games he doesn’t win than almost every other pitcher in the league is overall. It’s time we get his back.
The rules are simple, these are The Nine best season by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for qualifying starting pitchers who won fewer than nine games. In MLB history, there are 8286 qualifying seasons from 1901-2012 with 1187 finishing with fewer than 9 wins. These are the best.
9. Cliff Lee, 2012 Phillies
6-9, 211 IP, 3.16 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 4.9 WAR
8. Ken Johnson, 1962 Colt .45s
7-16, 197 IP, 3.84 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 5.0 WAR
7. Dutch Leonard, 1949 Cubs
7-16, 180 IP, 4.15 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 5.0 WAR
6. Bill Gullickson, 1981 Expos
7-9, 157.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 5.0 WAR
5. Al Benton, 1942 Tigers
7-13, 226.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 5.0 WAR
4. Steve Rogers, 1976 Expos
7-17, 230 IP, 3.25 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 5.1 WAR
3. Bob Welch, 1986 Dodgers
7-13, 235.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 5.3 WAR
2. Curt Schilling, 2003 Diamondbacks
8-9, 168 IP, 2.95 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 5.7 WAR
1. Nolan Ryan, 1987 Astros
8-16, 211.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 6.6 WAR
Wins generally correlate with good performance, but there are many cases in which good performances don’t result in wins and bad performances do. Pitchers can improve their likelihood of victory by pitching well, but they can’t guarantee it. Wins aren’t a completely useless measure of pitcher performance, but when we have so many statistics that are dramatically better, why should be place any importance on wins?
Here’s some evidence writ large. If we use Wins to predict three other statistics, WAR, ERA, and FIP, it doesn’t look good for wins.
| WAR | ERA | FIP | |
| Adjusted R Squared | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.13 |
What these numbers tell us is that 38, 24, and 13% of the variation in these numbers can be explained by variation in wins. Let’s give Wins the benefit of the doubt and pick WAR for the graph. There is a clear trend, but there is a lot of variation in WAR that wins can’t explain. The sample size here is over 8,000. You can be both terrible and amazing and achieve the same number of wins.
It’s time to #KillTheWin.
The Morning Edition (June 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Indians beat the Sox 19-10 in game one of a DH, Casper Wells (the OF!) is the only Sox arm not to allow a hit
- Harvey goes 7, gives up 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K…doesn’t get a win and the Mets lose
- Teheran K’s 10 Dbacks, Braves win 3-0
- CC dominates early, but the Orioles get to him late to win 4-3
- The Pirates big inning backs Cole’s victory
- Miller gets chased early in Oakland
- Cuddyer takes the hit streak to 25
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright duels Parker in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Turner welcomes the Friars to Miami (7p Eastern)
- Liriano tries to keep up his ’06 impression (7p Eastern)
- Lee and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is it time to track Cuddyer?
On an eventful Friday, three things stood out most. First, the Indians and White Sox played an insane game that featured former Tigers outfielder throwing a scoreless inning. Second, Matt Harvey threw another brilliant gem that his team coughed up. Third, Michael Cuddyer has now crossed the 25 game mark on his hit streak. I usually take notice around 20 and lock in past 25. I’m in love with hit streak chases because DiMaggio’s 56 game streak is the the single most impressive record in professional sports and any attempt to get near it is so impressive. Cuddyer only needs three more hits to be halfway. Wow.
How Was The Game? (June 28, 2013)
A powerful display.
Tigers 6, Rays 3
Parallel tracks usually take you to the same location and that’s the story of this game. Max Scherzer (12-0, 110.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 3.3 WAR) had another fine outing, keeping the Rays to just 3 runs in 7 innings while striking out 9 and pitched in almost no traffic, allowing 2 of the 3 runs on solo homers. But the other track was no less impressive as Miguel Cabrera led the way with 2 HR, a single, and a double, moving his season numbers up to 209 wRC+ and 5.4 WAR, both of which are easily MLB bests. But it was Prince Fielder who sealed the deal with a majestic homerun that hit the catwalk in RF, perhaps as it was still traveling upward. The bullpen shut the game down in the final two innings and put the Tigers in position to take the serious to take the series Saturday behind Justin Verlander (8-5, 97 IP, 3.90 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.8 WAR).
The Moment: Fielder hits the catwalk on a 2 run HR in the 7th.
New English D Audio (Episode 3)
On this edition of the podcast, I cover why you shouldn’t panic about the 2013 Tigers, why it’s time to see what Bruce Rondon can do, how Cabrera’s 2013 season is better than anything he’s ever done, our new reliever statistic SOEFA, and why RBI and Wins aren’t good statistics for measuring individual performance. The author wishes to point out that he misspoke near the 8:00 mark when he said Dirks is having one of the best offensive seasons in the league. He obviously meant defense. Dirks is good at defense.
Feel free to send questions for future editions of the podcast to @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter or to NewEnglishD@gmail.com.
Download (Approx 33 mins)
Bruce Rondon Returns
Bruce Rondon has nothing left to prove in Triple A. The minor leagues aren’t a challenge. He throws too hard for anyone to handle him. Tons of strikeouts, but also his share of walks. He hardly ever gave up runs, and has only allowed a few homers.
There’s just nothing left to prove. He might not be major league ready, but we’ll never know without putting him feet first into the fire. The Tigers bullpen has been taxed as the starters have stubbed their toes in the last few days and they needs reinforcements. The hot hand and the top relief prospect is the fireballing Rondon. It’s time.
I don’t know who he’s replacing just yet and I don’t know how Leyland plans to use him, but I have a suspicion we’ll see him pitching as the “closer” sooner rather than later. He’s exactly what Leyland and Dombrowski value in a closer. He throws hard, is kind of erratic, and has a “closer mentality.” I think most of that is nonsense, but I think he has what it takes to succeed in leverage situations, so I’m not going to cause a big fuss.
He’s going to strike batters out, but he’s going to walk some too. If you squint, you’ll probably think it’s Jose Valverde circa 2010 with a little extra on his fastball.
More than anything, he seems ready. I wrote a few weeks ago about how Castellanos should get the call when he’s ready, not when it makes financial sense. The same is true for Rondon. It’s especially true for Rondon because relievers have short shelf lives. Relievers are relievers because they’re fragile or have a limited repertoire, so let’s get all we can from them before they lose it.
Velocity peaks early, so let’s get everything we can out of his 100 mph arm. He averages 99.3 mph during his 2 inning stint in Detroit earlier this season. The slider is a good pitch, but the command is a problem. To get big leaguers out, he’s going to half to pitch against them. You can’t learn by facing hitters who can’t touch your fastball.
It’s time. It’s time to see what he has and give him a shot to learn. It’s also time for him to come under the tutelage of Jeff Jones, who might be some type of changeup and/or strikeout savant. (Also, this, this, and this)
Don’t overreact to his first appearance, good or bad. Don’t make up your mind based on small samples. Let’s go to Rondon and see what he can do. And remember, don’t look at saves.
But do look at SOEFA, the new reliever stat from New English D.
The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
- Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
- Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
- Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
- Garza dominates the Brewers
- Kluber gets shelled
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
- James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
- Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this finally the year for the Pirates?
As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.
How Was The Game? (June 27, 2013)
An opposite way to lose.
Angels 3, Tigers 1
After a homestand that featured the league’s best starting pitching doing a very convincing Padres impersonation, Doug Fister (6-5, 103 IP, 3.50 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.9 WAR) returned to form, pitching 7 brilliant innings of 1 run baseball to give the Tigers a very good chance to salvage one in the series. However, the Tigers could only must a single run themselves against the nameless opposing starter and couldn’t cash in on scoring chances in the 8th and 9th innings. With a taxed bullpen, Leyland had to hand the ball to Coke in the 10th, who remained unable to get righties out, resulting in two runs. The Tigers have the best staff and the best offense in baseball, but it wasn’t lined up correctly on this homestand as they dropped 3 straight to the Angels and 6 of 10 overall. They will pack up and head to TB tonight, turning to Max Scherzer (11-0, 103.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 3.3 WAR) for game one with the Rays.
The Moment: Torii Hunter nearly injures himself during a very comical dive.
The Morning Edition (June 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marcum goes 8 scoreless to beat the Sox
- Gordon walks off on the Braves
- Kazmir flirts with a no-hitter, but it took a Johnson blown save to win it
- Zimmermann leads the Nats over the Dbacks
- Lackey dominates the Rockies
- Felix strikes out 11, gives up 2 ER, somehow doesn’t win…
- AJ Griffin CGSO
- Dickey CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Corbin and Strasburg in DC (4p Eastern)
- NERD favorite Kluber in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- Greinke faces the Phillies, hopes not to get in a fight (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Didn’t 2B used to be a glove first position?
We live in a world in which Robinson Cano is 5th among 2B in WAR this season. Carpenter and Kipnis are taking the league by storm and Pedroia and Kendrick are ahead of him too. Cano is 7th among qualifiers in wRC+ for 2B. When did this happen? I remember just a couple seasons back you had like two second basemen who could hit and everyone else was Ramon Santiago. The game is changing, it’s pretty cool. Here’s Dave Cameron writing on a similar subject a little ways back.
New English D 