How Was The Game? (July 8, 2013)
A win, even if it wasn’t a pitcher win.
Tigers 4, Indians 2
Max Scherzer (13-0, 123.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 4.0 WAR) was only marginally affected by the adverse weather conditions and brief rain delay, allowing 2 runs and 3 walks in addition to punching out 7 Indians across 7 wet innings. He allowed both runs on a single immediately after the rain delay and didn’t allow another. The Tigers got one in the 2nd on a Peralta double and solo homerun from Tuiasosopo in the 4th. Other than that, both teams threatened but didn’t score until we headed into extra innings. The Tigers made the Indians pay for back to back walks to Cabrera and Fielder when Martinez smashed a two run double off the wall in centerfield to give the Tigers a two run lead, which would be all Benoit (#BackBenoit) would need. The win gives the Tigers 49 on the season, 3 in the series, and 7 out of 11 on the road trip. They’ll return home to meet the White Sox for the first time on Tuesday with Justin Verlander (9-5, 112 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.0 WAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Pena lets a Swisher dribbler roll fair while Swisher stood in the box, tags him with giant grin on his face.
On Max Scherzer and Falling in Love
Sometimes it’s instantaneous. Like the first time I saw Porcello’s two-seam fastball break across the plate or the intial glimpse of Doug Fister jumping off the mound to field his position with such enthusiasm and grace. Seeing Inge gun down a baserunner at old Ned Skeldon Stadium on Key Street.
Other times it’s slower. Quieter. It builds over time. Such is the case with Max Scherzer. It was never that I didn’t like him, but rather that he came to us in such a painful way. He cost the Tigers Curtis Granderson in what looked a lot like a salary dump, but proved to be much shrewder. At the time it was hard to totally accept him. He was talented, but it was also maddening to watch someone which such amazing stuff fall just short of putting it all together so frequently. He was always one little mechanical adjustment from being a star and he teased us over and over.
But things changed, as they often do. I started to think about it 383 days ago, before this website even existed, when I was checking my phone for the last time before going to bed, only to come across a rumor that Max’s brother had taken his own life. That little part of me that couldn’t fully get my arms around Scherzer seemed so small when a member of the team I love faced such an awful personal tragedy.
I almost wrote this post 261 days ago. Scherzer had just won the series clincher against the Yankees and propelled the Tigers into the World Series. I’m serious when I tell you I haven’t cried since my dog passed away 8 years ago, but I almost did that night. Not because the Tigers won, but because of what Dave Dombrowski said when he was accepting the AL pennant:
“As I look to my right, today’s winning pitcher, with his family which had an extremely difficult time, I can’t think of a better feeling for their family and his parents.”
Four months after one of the worst things any of us will probably ever experience, Scherzer and his family were celebrating a 10 strikeout, pennant-clinching performance. Not only had he finally mastered his command, but he had done so with such a heavy heart. At this point, I couldn’t imagine caring about who we traded to get him.
I almost wrote this post 92 days ago, when ESPN published a heartbreaking feature on the Scherzer family and Max’s relationship with his brother. Seriously, if you haven’t read it, stop reading this and go read that instead. I won’t even try to tell you how sad and sweet and meaningful it is.
I almost wrote this post 81 days ago, in the wee hours of April 18th, after Scherzer had twirled a gem against the Mariners on my birthday in a four and a half hour, 14 inning affair that ended with Brayan Pena getting clobbered by Justin Smoak and managing to hold onto the ball. I actually started to write this post that day, but I couldn’t put the pieces together. Not quite yet.
Any early coolness I felt toward Max had long since vanished and he was becoming one of my favorite players to watch and to cheer for. Anyone who knows me will tell you I’m one of the most loyal people you’ll meet. If you endear yourself to me, you’ll have my undying support, pretty much forever. I’ll stand by Inge, Raburn, and Kelly despite their flaws until they put me in the ground, and Scherzer had made the leap to that level. He was one of ours. Through everything. Always a Tiger.
But I’m glad I didn’t write it then, not because Max had anything left to prove to me but because he was about to prove so much to everyone else. As the first half of 2013 winds down, Scherzer currently leads qualifying American League starters in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), is 3rd in xFIP, 9th in ERA, 2nd in K/9, 14th in BB/9, and 9th in innings pitched despite being a start behind because of where he pitches in the rotation. He is also, as you may have seen in publications that care about such things, 13-0.
He’s going to his first All-Star Game, and he’s likely to start given how much stock most people still place in wins and losses for pitchers. Scherzer deserves it, but it’s not as obvious as some people think. Others are having great seasons too.
He is finally putting it all together on the field, and so I’m glad I waited until now to finally write this. It’s nice to know that I probably would have fallen in love just as much had he not been touched by tragedy. He’s achieving his potential as a starter after overcoming so much as a person. It’s hard not to love Max Scherzer.
But it’s more than that because you learn things along the way. I’ve always known that Scherzer has heterochromia (or two different colored eyes), but now I know that so do Jack Bauer and Mila Kunis. That’s a good list to be on. Max is also something of genius. He’s always presented himself as an intelligent guy, but I learned this year he got a 35 on the ACT and that he discussed complex world politics with his brother.
Of course, too, there’s his interest in sabermetrics. His brother, an econ major, actually got him into it a couple of years ago and he’s run with it ever since. He’s used advanced stats to understand the game and his approach better and it’s certainly working, even if Verlander sometimes mocks him for it on national television.
Scherzer isn’t just a great starter with a compelling personal story that makes you want to root for him, he’s also a really smart guy who takes a very intellectual approach to the game of baseball. The only thing missing is a strong connection to charity work or maybe bringing a Golden Retriever to the mound. He’s got the first one covered.
Max was all of these things, likely, before he came to the Tigers. He’s always been this guy, but his growth as a pitcher has been remarkable and fun to watch while the tragedy in his life has made me relate to him on a personal level. Not only is he a great Tiger, he’s a person I’m really pulling for.
His brother lost a fight with mental illness, and that’s something that’s pretty close to home for me. I don’t know if it’s because I feel like I understand how much he must be hurting or because I just feel so terrible that the Scherzer’s had to watch someone they love suffer, look like he was getting better, and then suddenly slip away. That has to be harder than almost anything.
It’s really important to me that the athletes I love earn admiration for what they do outside the lines. Becoming an elite athlete takes hard work, but it’s also a lot of genetic luck. The real measure of a man is who they are everywhere else and Scherzer is one of the good guys. He’s a force on the mound, but he also puts the “thinking man” in the thinking man’s game.
There’s an ineffable depth to Scherzer that’s pretty uncommon in the world of sports. Few seem to understand their craft and their world as well as he does. It’s impossible to know how much of who I think Scherzer is reflects reality, but I think it does.
Sports are about a lot of things. Competition, teamwork, hustle. But they’re also, for my money, about the fans. To be a fan is to be a member of a community. A family. People who share a common purpose, a common goal, and common interests. Sports are fun and they’re a place where really different people can come together.
The relationship I have with the Tigers is a more meaningful and rewarding relationship than almost any one I have with another person. They’re my team. My family. I don’t know if that makes me pathetic or awesome, but I don’t really care. It makes me feel good and it’s something I love.
My connection is to the Tigers as a team, as an idea even, but through that connection I bond with the players. Sometimes it happens quickly, sometimes it takes longer, but I always come around. They’re my team, no matter what. That sounds like family to me, even if the relationship is a tad asymmetric.
So I don’t get angry when the team struggles or underperforms like many bangwagon fans do because they’re my team in sickness and in health, for richer or poorer, in good times and in bad. They don’t have to win for me to love them, they just have to keep showing up and giving it their best and in return, they have my everlasting affection.
That’s one of the reasons that what happened to the Scherzer family touched me so much. They were hurting, so I hurt too. Solidarity among friends. One of the Tigers went through a terrible time and I was there, every fifth day on my couch, supporting him.
I have a story like this, although not quite so deep, for every player. Baseball is important to me and it’s a big part of who I am. The team is like my wife and the players are like my family. That’s how I experience sports, on an emotional level. This is an analytically focused site, but sabermetricians are people too.
We fall in love and experience joy and heartbreak like everyone else. Max Scherzer is one of us. He’s a Tiger and smart dude, and he knows about the quiet suffering of a loved one with mental illness. I can’t imagine someone I rather root for than him, even if it took me a while to see it.
The Morning Edition (July 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Corbin goes 8, strikes out 10 as the Snakes beat the Rockies
- Price goes the distance to beat the White Sox
- The Dodgers get 3 in the 9th to back Kershaw’s 8 strong innings
- The Cubs walk off in 11
- Fernandez looks ordinary in loss to the Cards
- The Nats back Strasburg in a slugfest with the Padres
- Rivera gives up a game winner to Jones and the O’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Derek Holland comes to Camden (7p Eastern)
- Garza keeps on the trade audition tour against the weak hitting White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Bailey takes the mound for the first time since the no hitter (8p Eastern)
- Lester goes to Seattle to face Felix (10p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey takes his show to SF (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this really happening again?
It is. Mike Trout is back on the chase after a homerun on Sunday night and now ranks 3rd among all MLB qualifiers with 161 wRC+, trailing only Cabrera and Davis. Mix in his great baserunning and better defense along with playing a more important defensive position and he’s only looking up at Miguel Cabrera on the WAR leaderboard. It’s Cabrera at 5.8 and Trout at 5.1. It’s happening again and I love it. Trout is essentially on pace to match his 2012 campaign, which would put him on some sort of ridiculous career trajectory. Think about this, Miguel Cabrera became the best hitter in the sport in his late 20s. Trout is 21. He’s probably at his peak defensively and on the bases, but he’s going to get better at the plate. What could this guy do? In the last 365 days, Trout (10.5) and Cabrera (9.2) are 1 and 2 in WAR and Trout already has more than 15 WAR in his career. Since 1901, only 2 players have accumulated more WAR through age 21: Mel Ott and Ty Cobb. That’s a list for ya.
SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (July 7, 2013)
You’ll recall last week we introduced are very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section.
| Rank | Player | Team | SOEFA |
| 1 | Alex Torres | Rays | 1.33 |
| 2 | Sergio Romo | Giants | 1.03 |
| 3 | Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | 0.96 |
| 4 | Neal Cotts | Rangers | 0.9 |
| 5 | Drew Smyly | Tigers | 0.89 |
| 6 | Mark Melancon | Pirates | 0.88 |
| 7 | Jordan Walden | Braves | 0.84 |
| 8 | Jason Grilli | Pirates | 0.83 |
| 9 | Javier Lopez | Giants | 0.83 |
| 10 | Greg Holland | Royals | 0.83 |
| 11 | Kevin Gregg | Cubs | 0.79 |
| 12 | Jesse Crain | White Sox | 0.78 |
| 13 | Oliver Perez | Mariners | 0.77 |
| 14 | Sam LeCure | Reds | 0.75 |
| 15 | Glen Perkins | Twins | 0.75 |
| 16 | Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 0.73 |
| 17 | Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 0.72 |
| 18 | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 0.71 |
| 19 | Joe Thatcher | Padres | 0.68 |
| 20 | Edward Mujica | Cardinals | 0.67 |
| 21 | Preston Claiborne | Yankees | 0.66 |
| 22 | Junichi Tazawa | Red Sox | 0.66 |
| 23 | Shawn Kelley | Yankees | 0.63 |
| 24 | Sean Doolittle | Athletics | 0.63 |
| 25 | Casey Fien | Twins | 0.59 |
| 26 | Tommy Hunter | Orioles | 0.58 |
| 27 | Koji Uehara | Red Sox | 0.58 |
| 28 | Edgmer Escalona | Rockies | 0.58 |
| 29 | Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 0.55 |
| 30 | Francisco Rodriguez | Brewers | 0.54 |
| 31 | Craig Kimbrel | Braves | 0.53 |
| 32 | Scott Downs | Angels | 0.52 |
| 33 | David Robertson | Yankees | 0.49 |
| 34 | Ryan Cook | Athletics | 0.49 |
| 35 | Andrew Miller | Red Sox | 0.48 |
| 36 | Robbie Ross | Rangers | 0.47 |
| 37 | Brian Matusz | Orioles | 0.47 |
| 38 | Jim Henderson | Brewers | 0.45 |
| 39 | Casey Janssen | Blue Jays | 0.44 |
| 40 | Luis Avilan | Braves | 0.44 |
| 41 | Aroldis Chapman | Reds | 0.44 |
| 42 | Matt Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 0.44 |
| 43 | Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.44 |
| 44 | Jonathan Papelbon | Phillies | 0.43 |
| 45 | Chad Gaudin | Giants | 0.43 |
| 46 | Anthony Varvaro | Braves | 0.43 |
| 47 | Dale Thayer | Padres | 0.43 |
| 48 | Bobby Parnell | Mets | 0.42 |
| 49 | Ernesto Frieri | Angels | 0.42 |
| 50 | Seth Maness | Cardinals | 0.41 |
| 51 | Rafael Soriano | Nationals | 0.4 |
| 52 | Josh Outman | Rockies | 0.4 |
| 53 | Matt Belisle | Rockies | 0.39 |
| 54 | Paco Rodriguez | Dodgers | 0.39 |
| 55 | Manny Parra | Reds | 0.39 |
| 56 | Luke Gregerson | Padres | 0.38 |
| 57 | Joel Peralta | Rays | 0.38 |
| 58 | Brandon Kintzler | Brewers | 0.36 |
| 59 | Addison Reed | White Sox | 0.35 |
| 60 | Grant Balfour | Athletics | 0.34 |
| 61 | Tom Gorzelanny | Brewers | 0.34 |
| 62 | Tanner Scheppers | Rangers | 0.34 |
| 63 | Jason Frasor | Rangers | 0.34 |
| 64 | Darren O’Day | Orioles | 0.34 |
| 65 | Brad Ziegler | Diamondbacks | 0.33 |
| 66 | Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0.33 |
| 67 | Luke Hochevar | Royals | 0.33 |
| 68 | John Axford | Brewers | 0.32 |
| 69 | J.P. Howell | Dodgers | 0.32 |
| 70 | Vin Mazzaro | Pirates | 0.32 |
| 71 | Joe Smith | Indians | 0.31 |
| 72 | David Carpenter | Braves | 0.3 |
| 73 | Steve Cishek | Marlins | 0.3 |
| 74 | James Russell | Cubs | 0.28 |
| 75 | Michael Kohn | Angels | 0.28 |
| 76 | Tony Watson | Pirates | 0.26 |
| 77 | Rafael Betancourt | Rockies | 0.25 |
| 78 | Jerome Williams | Angels | 0.25 |
| 79 | Antonio Bastardo | Phillies | 0.25 |
| 80 | Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 0.25 |
| 81 | Nate Jones | White Sox | 0.24 |
| 82 | Chad Qualls | Marlins | 0.24 |
| 83 | Justin Wilson | Pirates | 0.23 |
| 84 | Jamey Wright | Rays | 0.23 |
| 85 | Tyler Clippard | Nationals | 0.23 |
| 86 | Troy Patton | Orioles | 0.23 |
| 87 | Pat Neshek | Athletics | 0.21 |
| 88 | Matt Thornton | White Sox | 0.21 |
| 89 | Jean Machi | Giants | 0.2 |
| 90 | Mariano Rivera | Yankees | 0.2 |
| 91 | Rex Brothers | Rockies | 0.19 |
| 92 | Craig Breslow | Red Sox | 0.19 |
| 93 | Cody Allen | Indians | 0.17 |
| 94 | Aaron Loup | Blue Jays | 0.17 |
| 95 | Greg Burke | Mets | 0.17 |
| 96 | Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 0.15 |
| 97 | Jose Veras | Astros | 0.15 |
| 98 | Tim Collins | Royals | 0.13 |
| 99 | Alfredo Figaro | Brewers | 0.13 |
| 100 | Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 0.12 |
| 101 | Bryan Morris | Pirates | 0.12 |
| 102 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.11 |
| 103 | Joe Nathan | Rangers | 0.11 |
| 104 | Dane de la Rosa | Angels | 0.11 |
| 105 | Al Alburquerque | Tigers | 0.1 |
| 106 | Jose Mijares | Giants | 0.1 |
| 107 | Darren Oliver | Blue Jays | 0.09 |
| 108 | LaTroy Hawkins | Mets | 0.08 |
| 109 | Joe Kelly | Cardinals | 0.08 |
| 110 | Anthony Swarzak | Twins | 0.07 |
| 111 | Fernando Rodney | Rays | 0.07 |
| 112 | Carter Capps | Mariners | 0.07 |
| 113 | Yoervis Medina | Mariners | 0.06 |
| 114 | Aaron Crow | Royals | 0.06 |
| 115 | Cesar Ramos | Rays | 0.03 |
| 116 | Adam Ottavino | Rockies | 0.03 |
| 117 | Andrew Bailey | Red Sox | 0.02 |
| 118 | Jim Johnson | Orioles | 0 |
| 119 | Matt Lindstrom | White Sox | 0 |
| 120 | Ryan Pressly | Twins | -0.02 |
| 121 | Ryan Webb | Marlins | -0.03 |
| 122 | Jared Burton | Twins | -0.03 |
| 123 | J.J. Hoover | Reds | -0.03 |
| 124 | Drew Storen | Nationals | -0.03 |
| 125 | Jerry Blevins | Athletics | -0.04 |
| 126 | Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners | -0.05 |
| 127 | Kevin Jepsen | Angels | -0.05 |
| 128 | Craig Stammen | Nationals | -0.06 |
| 129 | Burke Badenhop | Brewers | -0.07 |
| 130 | Brian Duensing | Twins | -0.07 |
| 131 | Joe Ortiz | Rangers | -0.08 |
| 132 | Wilton Lopez | Rockies | -0.08 |
| 133 | Ross Wolf | Rangers | -0.08 |
| 134 | A.J. Ramos | Marlins | -0.09 |
| 135 | Danny Farquhar | Mariners | -0.09 |
| 136 | David Hernandez | Diamondbacks | -0.1 |
| 137 | Darin Downs | Tigers | -0.11 |
| 138 | Jose Cisnero | Astros | -0.12 |
| 139 | Bryan Shaw | Indians | -0.12 |
| 140 | Tony Sipp | Diamondbacks | -0.14 |
| 141 | Tim Stauffer | Padres | -0.15 |
| 142 | Brad Lincoln | Blue Jays | -0.16 |
| 143 | Wesley Wright | Astros | -0.16 |
| 144 | Cory Gearrin | Braves | -0.16 |
| 145 | Paul Clemens | Astros | -0.18 |
| 146 | Nick Hagadone | Indians | -0.19 |
| 147 | Vinnie Pestano | Indians | -0.19 |
| 148 | Jake McGee | Rays | -0.2 |
| 149 | Mike Dunn | Marlins | -0.2 |
| 150 | Michael Gonzalez | Brewers | -0.2 |
| 151 | Blake Beavan | Mariners | -0.21 |
| 152 | Phil Coke | Tigers | -0.21 |
| 153 | Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | -0.22 |
| 154 | Matt Guerrier | – – – | -0.22 |
| 155 | Heath Bell | Diamondbacks | -0.23 |
| 156 | Jonathan Broxton | Reds | -0.24 |
| 157 | Matt Albers | Indians | -0.24 |
| 158 | Garrett Richards | Angels | -0.24 |
| 159 | Alex Wilson | Red Sox | -0.26 |
| 160 | Rich Hill | Indians | -0.28 |
| 161 | George Kontos | Giants | -0.29 |
| 162 | Scott Rice | Mets | -0.29 |
| 163 | Josh Roenicke | Twins | -0.29 |
| 164 | Chris Perez | Indians | -0.29 |
| 165 | Logan Ondrusek | Reds | -0.3 |
| 166 | Travis Blackley | Astros | -0.35 |
| 167 | Kyle Farnsworth | Rays | -0.36 |
| 168 | Hector Ambriz | Astros | -0.37 |
| 169 | Mike Adams | Phillies | -0.39 |
| 170 | Clayton Mortensen | Red Sox | -0.4 |
| 171 | T.J. McFarland | Orioles | -0.4 |
| 172 | Ronald Belisario | Dodgers | -0.44 |
| 173 | Henry Rodriguez | – – – | -0.45 |
| 174 | Brandon Lyon | Mets | -0.46 |
| 175 | Esmil Rogers | Blue Jays | -0.51 |
| 176 | Bruce Chen | Royals | -0.53 |
| 177 | Adam Warren | Yankees | -0.57 |
| 178 | Jeremy Horst | Phillies | -0.58 |
| 179 | Jeremy Affeldt | Giants | -0.59 |
| 180 | Kelvin Herrera | Royals | -0.68 |
| 181 | Huston Street | Padres | -0.71 |
| 182 | Michael Kirkman | Rangers | -0.71 |
| 183 | Carlos Marmol | Cubs | -0.71 |
| 184 | Anthony Bass | Padres | -0.94 |
| 185 | Pedro Strop | – – – | -0.98 |
| 186 | Shawn Camp | Cubs | -1.01 |
| 187 | Hector Rondon | Cubs | -1.05 |
| 188 | Brandon League | Dodgers | -1.62 |
How Was The Game? (July 7, 2013)
Up and Down
Indians 9, Tigers 6
After Miguel Cabrera put the Tigers ahead with a homer in the first, Doug Fister (6-5, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.5 WAR) had a rough first inning, allowing four runs after a pair of two out walks that put the Tigers behind 4-1. Fister pitched well during his remaining innings, allowing just two solo homeruns in five innings, but he left the game with things looking less that peachy. However, the offense unloaded in the 7th and 8th innings, capped by a game tying 3 run homer by Torii Hunter in the 8th. Yet it wasn’t going to be that easy for the Tigers as Michael Brantly, who had quite the day, tagged Alburquerque for a 2 run HR in the 8th and put the Tigers behind again rather quickly. Despite the comeback effort, the Tigers fell to the Tribe for the first time in 8 games and lost their first game since Monday overall. They’ll still have a shot to take 3 of 4 from the Indians tomorrow behind Max Scherzer (13-0, 116.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 3.7 WAR), who will be making his final case to be chosen to start the All-Star Game.
The Moment: Hunter ties it with a bomb in the 8th.
Revisiting The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
We’ve already covered the catchers, so let’s move on to first base. Here’s The Nine Best First Basemen for 2013. Numbers reflect start of play on July 6.
56. Mark Teixeira, Yankees (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: -0.2)
Teixeira was more hurt than I knew when I wrote the original list. Nothing you can do about a guy who only plays 15 games during a season due to injury. MISS
49. Albert Pujols, Angels (Preseason Rank: 2, 2013 WAR: -0.1)
Albert Pujols stated slow last season and came on strong in the second half. I’m not sure if that’s going to happen again or if his foot and ankle injury will improve enough that he can contribute the way he should. Granted, I knew Pujols was on the wrong side of 30 when I wrote the list, so maybe I should have been more cautious about his decline, but it’s safe to say one shouldn’t assume an all-time great player will simply cease being valuable out of nowhere. He’s producing at league average with a 99 wRC+ from a position that demands offense and is below average on defense and on the bases. Pujols likely won’t be this bad all season, but there is no way he can recover enough to save the prediction. MISS
31. Adam LaRoche, Nationals (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
He’s lost some power from his career year in 2012, but the OBP is nearly identical. LaRoche was my bold, wild card type pick, so I’m fine with being off the mark a bit. He’s defense rates below average this year despite being good each of the last three seasons. I assume that will turn around because 1B defensive skills shouldn’t deteriorate that quickly, so he’s probably more of a 2.5 WAR player than a 3.5 WAR player and that’s not a huge whiff. He’s probably a 10-13 1B for the whole season, so this is a miss, but not a huge one. MISS
30. Prince Fielder, Tigers (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 0.5)
Fielder, currently at 123 wRC+, is performing well on offensive relative to league average, but not compared to the bar he set for himself. At this pace, he’s like to finish near the 8-10 mark, but he could easily snap out of it and start hitting for more power at any moment. There’s nothing physically wrong with him and he’s had the occasional season in his career that was just pretty good instead of great at the plate, so he could easily slug .550 the rest of the way and no one would find it strange. He’s costly on defense, but that’s a constant. He’s a top 9 1B on offense right now, but not comfortably enough to make up for his defense. MISS
15. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Despite some recent slumping Rizzo is only a bit off the pace he set in 2012 on which I based my evaluation. He’s 0.3 WAR back of 8th place, so I’m feeling pretty good right now. He’s playing strong defense and has a 110 wRC+. With a little better second half, he’s dead on. HIT
12. Freddie Freeman, Braves (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.4)
Freeman spent 15 days on the DL early in the season, but while he’s been on the field during the 70+ other games, he’s been right on pace for 5th. He’s the 6th best 1B by wRC+ and is hovering just below average on defense. Assuming he’s healthy and plays 140 games or so this season, he’s perfectly on track for the middle of the top 9. HIT
10. Allen Craig, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 1.5 WAR)
Craig is having essentially the exact season I’d have expected from him. In the initial ranking I said he was a phenomenal hitter (he’s 5th in wRC+) and nothing special with the glove (-2.2 UZR). His only issue would be health, which hasn’t bitten him yet and is just 0.1 WAR away from 7th on the list. If he doesn’t miss much time, this one looks great. HIT
9. Eric Hosmer, Royals (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 1.5)
Ha! Nailed it. He started a bit slow but things are picking up nicely and he has added value with the glove too. I’m a fan of his skills and think he can be a great player despite 2012’s disappointment. I’m not going to say much more and just bask in this precisely accurate ranking while it lasts. HIT
8. Brandon Belt, Giants (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR:1.6)
I like Belt, but the Giants have been screwing with his swing and playing time so much over the years it’s hard to feel good about any sort of prediction. He’s a patient hitter with a solid glove and I like him a lot as a player, I just didn’t think it was a good idea to rank him in the top 9 because I couldn’t predict the playing time. MISS
7. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Someone asked about him when I posted the original piece and I said he’d have been 10 or 11 for me, so finding him at 7, just ahead of that spot isn’t surprising. He’s hitting for a little more power than I thought, but other than that is right on track for the season I thought he’d have. HIT
6. Mark Trumbo, Angels (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Trumbo wasn’t ranked in the preseason because I expected him to get most of his reps at DH. Nothing you can really do about that one, but he’s a lowish OBP, high power guy who tends to run hot and cold. He’s actually be solid with the glove in Pujols’ stead, so I’m comfortable expecting him to finish near the back half of the list. PUSH
5. James Loney, Rays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.3)
I saw this coming. Not this exactly, but I did. Go to #30 on this list of bold predictions and you’ll see. I didn’t think he’d be a top 9 guy, but I’m taking credit for this because so few people had good things to say abut Loney going into the year. He’s always been a guy who could play defense and hit for average, but he was caught in between while looking to add power in LA, so arriving in Tampa and being told not to worry about it seems to have helped. HIT.
4. Edwin Encarnacion, Jays (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.5)
I had Encarnacion figured in for a lot of games at DH, which has sort of happened. 45 games at 1B, 29 at DH, 10 at 3B so I didn’t expect him to add as much value because of the DH positional adjustment in WAR. I expected him to mash, but not to add this kind of overall value. I’m calling it a push because it was more of a playing time mistake than a production one. PUSH
3. Joey Votto, Reds (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Joey Votto is great and I said he would be great. His defensive rating is below average, which I don’t think will continue and that is the only think keeping him from another MVP type season. Votto is right on track for the 6.5-7.5 WAR season that I figured for him. HIT
2. Paul Goldschmidt, Dbacks (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 3.4)
Goldy was someone I agonized over and left him off with A-Gon right on the cusp. He’s been good enough to make that prediction a miss, but I do want to make clear I liked him a lot coming in, just not quite as much as I should have. He has amazingly gotten better from year to year across the board since coming to the big leagues and is very much in the MVP conversation with Votto and several other guys who will appear on other lists. I’m a Goldy fan and regret not putting him on the preseason list. MISS
1. Chris Davis, Orioles (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 4.6)
Yeah, didn’t see this coming. No one did. Not even Chris Davis’ mother expected him to elevated his game to near-Cabreraian levels. He’s mashing and is right in the thick of the AL MVP race. He’s not this good, but he’s also clearly good enough to hang on this list the rest of the way and I wouldn’t have put him in the top 12. Easily a miss and pretty darn impressive. I’m not buying him to finish #1, but he’s earned it for now. MISS
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Morning Edition (July 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- MLB All-Star Game participants announced, see below for commentary
- Sale goes 7, gives up 2 ER, 1 BB, and Ks 9…loses again….
- Cardinals walk off on the Fish
- Santana and Parker both solid, but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Royals
- Dickey goes deep into the game, but surrenders 6 runs as the Twins beat the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kuroda goes against the O’s (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg toes the slab in DC (1p Eastern)
- Danks and Price hook up in Tampa (130p Eastern)
- Fernandez takes on the Cardinals (2p Eastern)
- Burnett comes off the DL to face the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Kershaw faces the Giants (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do the All-Star rosters look?
So let me break the ASG rosters down in a very simple way. I’m only going to point out players who got left off criminally and players who probably shouldn’t be on the team. As usual, most of the roster is right, and it’s messed up at the margins. Here are my AL and NL picks and here are the full rosters.
Players Who Should Be on the Rosters:
- Evan Longoria is 6th in MLB in position player WAR, the only AL reserve who could even reasonably be considered more deserving than Longoria is Machado. It’s a crime that Longo isn’t in the game.
- Josh Donaldson is 9th in WAR and is on the outside looking in because you can’t have a million 3B on your team. It’s understandable that one of these guys got left off, it’s unacceptable that both didn’t make it. Either could go as a DH, or replace one of the catching backups or one of the 3 backup 2B.
- Honorable mention to Kyle Seager, because he belongs, but 3B is too deep to make much of a case.
- Ellsbury and Gardner are also better choices than Hunter and Cruz, but it’s less egregious.
- Marte and Choo probably belong over Dom Brown
- Derek Holland is 4th in MLB in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster. Not much justification for that.
- Homer Bailey is 5th in the NL in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster, hard to buy Locke, Wood, and Bumgarner over him
Players Who Shouldn’t Be on the Roster
- I know he was voted by the fans, so it’s a popularity thing, but Adam Jones has very little business being in the game over some of the guys who missed.
- Bartolo Colon probably doesn’t need to be on the roster, but he has 11 wins, and those are shiny. His A’s teammate Josh Donaldson should get to go in his place even if they play different positions
- Prince Fielder really shouldn’t be an All-Star, but he’s in because he’s well known, has RBI, and it is a pretty down year for 1B in the AL. Longoria or Donaldson really should go in his place
- I love Ben Zobrist, but he has to only be in the game over Longoria because he’s versatile and can fill in for injured guys. There is nothing else that justifies him being on the team over Longo
- Cruz and Hunter together make one good All-Star, but each on their own doesn’t do much for me. Not a huge error, but probably not deserving given who was left off
- Brandon Phillips should not be an All-Star this year. Fan vote, so can’t say too much.
- Dominic Brown is probably a no for me, but it’s not terrible.
I’m sure some of you disagree with these comments, but that’s the way this works. Undeserving players get picked because of name value or voters looking at the wrong numbers, but I stand by the ones about which I wrote most strongly. Longoria and Donaldson must be All-Stars. I don’t care who comes off as long as it isn’t Cabrera, Gomez, Trout, Davis, or Wright. Literally, 2 of the top 10 players in baseball aren’t going to the game. Come on guys.
How Was The Game? (July 6, 2013)
Another big win.
Tigers 9, Indians 4
On the day the All-Star Rosters were announced, the Tigers played like a team with 6 of them, but were lead by a great player left off the roster, returning starter Anibal Sanchez (7-5, 86.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 3.4 WAR). Sanchez was on a pitch count, but turned in 5 great innings of 3 hit, 1 walk, 1 run, and 4 K baseball before turning it over to the bullpen. He was consistently in the mid 90s with his fastball and looked fully healthy, which is great news for the Tigers. The bats didn’t stay quiet either as the Tigers got 4 in the 3rd, 3 in the 4th, and 2 in the 6th thanks to back to back homeruns from Cabrera and Fielder, Torii Hunter coming a single short of the cycle, and two hits from the other All-Star, Jhonny Peralta. The win gets the Tigers 10 games above the .500 mark and have clinched no worse than a split in Cleveland this weekend after registering their 5th straight win. Scherzer and Verlander will watch their non-All-Star teammate, who certainly was deserving, Doug Fister (6-5, 109 IP, 3.80 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.9 WAR) take the baseball Sunday as the Tigers go for the series victory.
The Moment: Cabrera and Fielder go back to back.
Picking the National League All-Stars
With the All-Star rosters looming ahead this weekend, New English D weighs into the fray with these picks. We covered the AL yesterday. A few notes up front. First, I’ve conformed the roster size to the official requirements and have selected starters I feel are most deserving based on their 2013 seasons and have given no deference to the voting up through this point. My view is that the All-Star Game should showcase the game’s standout performers from the first half of 2013, not the best players over the last year or the best players by talent even if they haven’t performed. I think the game should highlight the players who play well, not the players MLB thinks are “marketable.” Every team is represented and I’ve given a list of players who are the first replacements for injuries and such. As you know, this site appreciates advanced statistics, so should you choose to comment on these selections, please do so without using “RBI” or “Wins.” Finally, I watch a ton of baseball, but I watch fewer NL games by function of being a Tigers fan, so some of the down ballot selections are a bit less sure footed.
And I just couldn’t leave Puig out. He has to play in this game.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | C |
| Joey Votto | Reds | 1B |
| Matt Carpenter | Cardinals | 2B |
| Jean Segura | Brewers | SS |
| David Wright | Mets | 3B |
| Carlos Gomez | Brewers | OF |
| Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | OF |
| Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | OF |
| Buster Posey | Giants | DH |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | SP |
| Russell Martin | Pirates | C |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Dbacks | 1B |
| Allen Craig | Cardinals | 1B |
| Chase Utley | Phillies | 2B |
| Ian Desmond | Nationals | SS |
| Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | 3B |
| Starling Marte | Pirates | OF |
| Bryce Harper | Nationals | OF |
| Shin Soo Choo | Reds | OF |
| Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | OF |
| Michael Cuddyer | Rockies | OF |
| Todd Frazier | Reds | 3B |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | SP |
| Cliff Lee | Phillies | SP |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | SP |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | SP |
| Mat Latos | Reds | SP |
| Jeff Samardzija | Cubs | SP |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | SP |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | SP |
| Craig Kimbrel | Braves | RP |
| Sergio Romo | Giants | RP |
| Mark Melancon | Pirates | RP |
| Jason Grilli | Pirates | RP |
| Ryan Braun* | Brewers | OF |
| Troy Tulowitzki* | Rockies | SS |
| Evereth Cabrera* | Padres | SS |
| FIRST REPLACEMENTS | ||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | SP |
| Patrick Corbin | Dbacks | SP |
| Shelby Miller | Cardinals | SP |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | SP |
| Chris Johnson | Braves | 3B |
| Carlos Beltran | Cardinals | OF |
| Dominic Brown | Phillies | OF |
| * INJURED |
The Nine Worst 20 Win Season in MLB History
To regular readers it will come as no surprise that I’m part of the movement to remove the pitcher won/loss record from our baseball evaluations. I’ve written on the subject quite a bit, both with respect to individual seasons and entire careers, and this piece seems like a perfect fit to round out the discussion. It also helps that I got a direct request for this exact thing after I posted yesterday’s piece:
So what follows are The Nine Worst 20 Win Seasons in MLB history. It gets a little tricky to draw lines here, so let me give you a quick primer. I don’t want this post to be about pitchers who made a lot of starts so they got a lot of wins, but rather about pitchers who performed poorly and still got wins. Therefore, instead of using Wins Above Replacement as I did for the under 9 list, I will be using ERA- and FIP-, which are simply statistics that calculate the difference between a pitcher’s ERA or FIP and league average during that year. Also it controls for park effects, but it’s basically a way to compare an ERA from the deadball era to one from the steroid era.
I would personally prefer to see this done with FIP-, because it better reflects a pitcher’s skill, but I’m going to use ERA- as well so that this piece is more convincing. A pitcher who allows a lot of runs shouldn’t win a lot of games, and you should agree with that if you’re old school or new school.
Additionally, I’ve included lists from 1901-2012 and just 1945-2012 if you’re concerned about the number of starts inflating someone’s win total. That’s fair, so I’ve broken it down into four separate lists, all telling you the same thing. You can have a bad year and win 20 games. 20 games is the old school gold standard of performance, so this cutoff makes sense. If you’ll recall, there have been more than 8,000 qualifying seasons in MLB history and if you try to predict WAR, ERA, or FIP with wins, you get an adjusted R squared of less than .40 in all cases. This isn’t just about a few examples, it’s about the entire population of starting pitchers. For more on this, read the two links above and check out the bottom of this piece.
Here we go.
1945-2012 by ERA-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | ERA- |
| 9 | 1950 | Johnny Sain | Braves | 20 | 13 | 278.1 | 100 |
| 8 | 1965 | Sammy Ellis | Reds | 22 | 10 | 263.2 | 101 |
| 7 | 1973 | Paul Splittorff | Royals | 20 | 11 | 262 | 102 |
| 6 | 1971 | Steve Carlton | Cardinals | 20 | 9 | 273.1 | 103 |
| 5 | 1970 | Jim Merritt | Reds | 20 | 12 | 234 | 104 |
| 4 | 1980 | Joe Niekro | Astros | 20 | 12 | 256 | 106 |
| 3 | 1972 | Stan Bahnsen | White Sox | 21 | 16 | 252.1 | 113 |
| 2 | 1959 | Lew Burdette | Braves | 21 | 15 | 289.2 | 113 |
| 1 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 113 |
1945-2012 by FIP-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | FIP- |
| 9 | 1971 | Dave McNally | Orioles | 21 | 5 | 224.1 | 110 |
| 8 | 1967 | Mike McCormick | Giants | 22 | 10 | 262.1 | 110 |
| 7 | 1959 | Lew Burdette | Braves | 21 | 15 | 289.2 | 111 |
| 6 | 1990 | Bob Welch | Athletics | 27 | 6 | 238 | 112 |
| 5 | 1958 | Bob Turley | Yankees | 21 | 7 | 245.1 | 112 |
| 4 | 1979 | Joe Niekro | Astros | 21 | 11 | 263.2 | 114 |
| 3 | 1967 | Earl Wilson | Tigers | 22 | 11 | 264 | 114 |
| 2 | 1973 | Catfish Hunter | Athletics | 21 | 5 | 256.1 | 122 |
| 1 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 123 |
1901-2012 by ERA-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | ERA- |
| 9 | 1910 | George Mullin | Tigers | 21 | 12 | 289 | 109 |
| 8 | 1914 | Christy Mathewson | Giants | 24 | 13 | 312 | 110 |
| 7 | 1911 | Jack Coombs | Athletics | 28 | 12 | 336.2 | 110 |
| 6 | 1906 | Christy Mathewson | Giants | 22 | 12 | 266.2 | 112 |
| 5 | 1972 | Stan Bahnsen | White Sox | 21 | 16 | 252.1 | 113 |
| 4 | 1919 | Hooks Dauss | Tigers | 21 | 9 | 256.1 | 113 |
| 3 | 1959 | Lew Burdette | Braves | 21 | 15 | 289.2 | 113 |
| 2 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 113 |
| 1 | 1903 | Henry Schmidt | Superbas | 22 | 13 | 301 | 118 |
1901-2012 by FIP-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | IP | FIP- |
| 9 | 1911 | Bob Harmon | Cardinals | 23 | 16 | 348 | 114 |
| 8 | 1921 | Joe Oeschger | Braves | 20 | 14 | 299 | 114 |
| 7 | 1967 | Earl Wilson | Tigers | 22 | 11 | 264 | 114 |
| 6 | 1903 | Henry Schmidt | Superbas | 22 | 13 | 301 | 114 |
| 5 | 1906 | Jack Taylor | – – – | 20 | 12 | 302.1 | 115 |
| 4 | 1910 | George Mullin | Tigers | 21 | 12 | 289 | 117 |
| 3 | 1908 | Nick Maddox | Pirates | 23 | 8 | 260.2 | 121 |
| 2 | 1973 | Catfish Hunter | Athletics | 21 | 5 | 256.1 | 122 |
| 1 | 1966 | Denny McLain | Tigers | 20 | 14 | 264.1 | 123 |
And now, to bring the point home even further, let’s put an innings cap at 210 and take a look at 15+ win seasons since 1945 by ERA-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | FIP- | ERA- |
| 9 | 2003 | Ramon Ortiz | Angels | 16 | 13 | 32 | 180 | 5.2 | 5.26 | 0.9 | 119 | 117 |
| 8 | 1983 | Eric Show | Padres | 15 | 12 | 33 | 200.2 | 4.17 | 4.37 | 0.3 | 121 | 118 |
| 7 | 1989 | Storm Davis | Athletics | 19 | 7 | 31 | 169.1 | 4.36 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 123 | 119 |
| 6 | 2004 | Shawn Estes | Rockies | 15 | 8 | 34 | 202 | 5.84 | 5.54 | 1 | 112 | 120 |
| 5 | 1966 | Dave Giusti | Astros | 15 | 14 | 33 | 210 | 4.2 | 3.57 | 2.6 | 105 | 120 |
| 4 | 1999 | Kirk Rueter | Giants | 15 | 10 | 33 | 184.2 | 5.41 | 5.01 | 1.1 | 113 | 124 |
| 3 | 1989 | Andy Hawkins | Yankees | 15 | 15 | 34 | 208.1 | 4.8 | 4.44 | 1.2 | 117 | 124 |
| 2 | 1969 | Steve Blass | Pirates | 16 | 10 | 32 | 210 | 4.46 | 3.72 | 2 | 109 | 126 |
| 1 | 1980 | Dan Spillner | Indians | 16 | 11 | 30 | 194.1 | 5.28 | 4.45 | 1.4 | 110 | 130 |
And now again with FIP-
| Rank | Season | Name | Team | W | L | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | ERA- | FIP- |
| 9 | 2012 | Barry Zito | Giants | 15 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 184.1 | 4.15 | 4.49 | 0.9 | 110 | 120 |
| 8 | 1983 | Eric Show | Padres | 15 | 12 | 35 | 33 | 200.2 | 4.17 | 4.37 | 0.3 | 118 | 121 |
| 7 | 1984 | Eric Show | Padres | 15 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 206.2 | 3.4 | 4.23 | 0.7 | 97 | 122 |
| 6 | 1963 | Phil Regan | Tigers | 15 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 189 | 3.86 | 4.58 | 0 | 104 | 123 |
| 5 | 1989 | Storm Davis | Athletics | 19 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 169.1 | 4.36 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 119 | 123 |
| 4 | 1975 | Jack Billingham | Reds | 15 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 208 | 4.11 | 4.43 | 0.4 | 114 | 124 |
| 3 | 2006 | Steve Trachsel | Mets | 15 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 164.2 | 4.97 | 5.5 | 0.1 | 114 | 125 |
| 2 | 1971 | Chuck Dobson | Athletics | 15 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 189 | 3.81 | 4.19 | 0.1 | 117 | 126 |
| 1 | 1950 | Tommy Byrne | Yankees | 15 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 203.1 | 4.74 | 5.51 | 0.5 | 107 | 128 |
Even when we limit the number of innings a pitcher throws, pitchers can still accumulate wins despite pitching much worse than league average.
So whether you like the simple and easy ERA or the more predictive and true FIP, here you have plenty of evidence that winning a lot of games doesn’t mean you had a good season. Guys on this list were 10 and 20% worse than league average in these seasons and still won the magic 20 games. This is further proof that wins do not reflect a pitcher’s individual performance.
You can be worse than average and still win at an elite level. Last week I showed how you can be much better than average and win fewer than 10 games. Yesterday, I showed that this isn’t a small sample size, single season trick. This is true in small samples and in large samples.
Here’s a quick look at every individual season in MLB history again up against ERA-. There is a trend, but the variation is huge. The adjusted R squared is .3046, meaning wins can only explain 30% of the variation in ERA relative to league average.
FIP- actually makes wins fare worse, at .1709 adjusted R squared. I won’t bother showing the graph because this one makes the point just fine. You can have an all time great season at run prevention and win 10 games and you can have a well below average season and win 20. Wins are about many factors and pitching is just one of them. You can have a great outing, great season, and great career and never get the wins you deserve and the exact opposite is true as well.
It’s time to outgrow the win and start talking about things that actually measure performance. Even if it’s ERA, which isn’t even the best way to do things. Let’s look at innings and strikeouts and FIP and WAR and everything else. Wins are the oldest statistic there is but they’ve long since lost their usefulness.
If you’re someone who believes heavily in wins, I challenge you to write a cogent response that defends their use. I’d be happy to publish it if you don’t have your own forum and will respond to your arguments. I want to be someone who helps move sabermetrics from a niche tool to the mainstream and I don’t want this to be about drawing lines between people who love baseball. This is my argument against wins, I hope that you take it to heart and really think about it.
Ask questions, look for evidence, and let’s talk about baseball. Share this with people who love wins and hate them. This shouldn’t be a partisan debate between the new and old, it should be about knowledge and fun. Always.
New English D 